UFC on FOX 17 Staff Predictions: Who'll escape with the lightweight title?

Prior to every UFC event, theScore's Kyle Smith, Ali Dar, and Alexander K. Lee give their predictions on all the main-card fights.

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Donald Cerrone

Ali Dar: As highly as I think of Cerrone's skills, it's almost impossible in my eyes to pick against dos Anjos in this fight, especially when he looked as good as he did against Anthony Pettis to win the title. His striking was crisp, his grappling was smothering, and he never once looked tired in the fight. If that same fighter shows up Saturday, Cerrone won't have much success against the Brazilian. Pick: dos Anjos

Kyle Smith: The lightweight division's foremost purveyor of ultraviolence, Cerrone is a completely different fighter than the one who lost to dos Anjos in 2013. What's the catch? Well, dos Anjos is also a completely different fighter than the one who bested "Cowboy" at UFC Fight Night 27. Still, I think Cerrone's vicious kicks and innate ability to scramble back to his feet to unleash even more hellacious kicks will be just enough for him to survive dos Anjos' suffocating grappling and well-rounded game. Pick: Cerrone

Alexander K. Lee: Cerrone is currently enjoying an eight-fight win streak, his last defeat coming at the hands of - you guessed it - dos Anjos. Has Cerrone improved enough to overcome the champ this time around? I don't see it. Credit to "Cowboy" for knocking off top-10 opponents left and right (including a cathartic decision over Benson Henderson in their third meeting), but he's still very much the same man who was outpointed by dos Anjos in their last meeting. Dos Anjos has always been one of the most well-rounded fighters in the UFC and he's found a perfect balance between being aggressive and letting the action come to him. That maturity keeps him a step above Cerrone on the lightweight ladder. Pick: dos Anjos

Junior dos Santos vs. Alistair Overeem

Smith: In the land of the venomous strikers, the man with the stronger chin is king. With both dos Santos and Overeem equipped with the ability to violently end each other's night with a single kill shot or a barrage of them, the more durable dos Santos should emerge from the bloody mist with his hand raised. Sure, Overeem is a monster in the clinch and can snatch a fight-ending guillotine choke out of nowhere, but his crumbling chin will ultimately betray his offensive brilliance. Pick: dos Santos

Lee: A fight that's been years in the making and it's probably not going to last longer than a few minutes. If there's a feeling-out period, expect it to be no longer than a round before these two unleash hell on each other. They might both be capable of utilizing ground and pound, but it'll be a shock if this develops into anything other than the kickboxing war everyone's expecting. Dos Santos has always been the tighter, more precise fighter and he's also got an iron chin. He'll land a kill shot before Overeem does. Pick: dos Santos

Dar: In the buildup to this fight, footage of Overeem has been eye-opening. He looks nothing like he once did, instead conjuring the feeling he should move down a weight class or two. Dos Santos, meanwhile, looks as shredded as ever. Physique doesn't win a fight, but it doesn't help Overeem that dos Santos is also a stylistic nightmare for him. Overeem's chin looks completely shot and I have the feeling dos Santos will leave the Dutchman face up on the canvas. Pick: dos Santos

Michael Johnson vs. Nate Diaz

Dar: Johnson is slowly becoming a master of many skills. His wrestling has always been at a high level, but working with Henri Hooft has improved his kickboxing tenfold. Diaz is an excellent boxer, but Johnson's more expansive game is going to give him real trouble in their fight. I don't think he'll finish Diaz, but he'll put a real butt-whopping on him. Pick: Johnson

Lee: When Johnson was fresh out of "The Ultimate Fighter," he had to rely on his wrestling to carry him past his first few opponents. The results were mixed, so he worked with the Blackzilians to overhaul his whole approach. Now he's as comfortable on his feet as he is on the ground, but whether he's ready to trade with a Diaz brother is another story. The name of the game is volume when it comes to Diaz, who'll do everything he can to draw Johnson into a brawl. I expect Johnson to frustrate Diaz with his movement, score key takedowns to secure rounds, and do enough to escape with a win. Pick: Johnson

Smith: Johnson's evolution as a fighter is commendable. Formerly a one-dimensional wrestler, Johnson has transformed into an effective volume striker who mixes up his strikes with well-timed takedowns. Speaking of volume, Diaz throws ... and throws ... and throws ... and throws. Did I mention he throws? A slick grappler, Diaz prefers to engage in scintillating firefights with his opponents, but as long as Johnson avoids being baited into a brawl, a measured attack punctuated with the occasional takedown should be enough to carry him to victory. Pick: Johnson

Randa Markos vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Lee: Markos gets a tough draw in Kowalkiewicz, a high-level grappler who's the best female fighter out of Poland not named Joanna Jedrzejczyk. She has shown vastly improved striking, to the point it helped in narrow wins over two of the best strawweights outside of the UFC, Kalindra Faria and Mizuki Inoue. Athleticism and grappling could be even in this match, so expect the debuting Kowalkiewicz to make use of her slight striking advantage to win a decision. Pick: Kowalkiewicz

Dar: Both fighters are known for their exciting style, but I think what gives Markos the edge in this fight is her move to Montreal to train at Tristar with Firas Zahabi. Markos is still coming into her own, but Zahabi is known for taking fighters with talent and tightening up their skills to create monsters. As long as Markos doesn't get too wild against Kowalkiewicz, she should have enough in the tank to pick up a win. Pick: Markos

Smith: Making her UFC debut, Kowalkiewicz isn't getting a soft touch in Markos. Sporting similar skill sets. Kowalkiewicz has a larger bag of tricks on the feet while Markos holds a slight edge in the grappling department. Look for Kowalkiewicz to avoid engaging Markos on the floor while consistently landing a steady stream of varied combinations en route to a decision victory. Pick: Kowalkiewicz