Running analysis of Round 2 of the NBA playoffs
Our basketball writers share their observations and insights throughout the NBA conference semifinals.
Tuesday, May 5
Luka-less Lakers have no shot vs. OKC
Things can change quickly during the playoffs, and it's wise to never overreact to one game, but the series-opener between the Thunder and Lakers was a clear peek into the future of what should be a short series. Barring a Hollywood miracle or an unfortunate turn of events for Oklahoma City, the Luka Doncic-less Lakers simply won't be able to score enough against the defending champs.
LeBron James will continue to one-up Father Time, and the absence of Thunder swingman Jalen Williams will allow James to take advantage of smaller matchups (when he shakes free of Lu Dort), as he did Tuesday to the tune of 27 points on 12-of-17 shooting. But good luck to the Lakers as they try to get anything else going against the league's top defense. OKC's terrifying collection of perimeter defenders made Austin Reaves' life hell in Game 1 (3-of-16 shooting) and will continue to do so, while Chet Holmgren shut down the paint. This isn't the dysfunctional, low-IQ Rockets anymore. This is a well-oiled winning machine.
Credit head coach JJ Redick and the Lakers' own defense for their aggressive and effective scheme against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who committed an uncharacteristic seven turnovers, but Game 1 had to be sobering for Los Angeles. The Lakers got off to a great start, got a big LeBron game, limited the reigning MVP ... and still never looked capable of winning, en route to an 18-point beatdown. Doncic would've given L.A. a puncher's chance. This version of the Lakers is dead on arrival. - Joseph Casciaro
Cavs go away from what worked
Cleveland appeared to have the right idea about how to attack the Pistons out of the gate; Evan Mobley went straight at Jalen Duren on the first play, and although he missed the layup, Duren could do nothing against the second-chance dunk after committing to the initial contest. Kenny Atkinson's men had three offensive boards after just two minutes, and Duren alone was struggling against Cleveland's giant frontcourt combo of Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
The Cavs, however, seldom tried to nullify Duren from that point on despite the early success. Some of that was due to Allen picking up three fouls within six minutes, but the change in plans nonetheless seemed to really throw off James Harden. The 36-year-old went 1-of-7 from distance Tuesday, settling for a couple rushed attempts that resulted in easy buckets for the Pistons the other way. By the end of the first half, the Cavs were shooting 8-of-22 (36%) and had already surrendered 20 points off turnovers. Harden finished with a team-high seven, tying his Game 4 total against the Toronto Raptors for his most in one game since joining Cleveland.
Unsurprisingly, the Cavaliers' most encouraging stretch was an 11-0 run in the fourth that began during a three-minute breather for Duren. Harden scored nine straight to help tie the game during that span, but the little momentum the Cavs pieced together disintegrated quickly when a full-stretch Duren thwarted an ill-advised floater by Harden. From there, the Pistons center repeatedly combined with Cade Cunningham, and their simple two-man game gave Detroit the breathing room it needed. - Jonathan Soveta
Monday, May 4
Wolves erase Wemby down stretch of Game 1 upset
It might sound preposterous given that Victor Wembanyama recorded an NBA playoff record 12 blocks in Game 1 of the West semifinals, but the Timberwolves actually did a good job of limiting his defensive influence down the stretch. Minnesota accomplished that by leaning on a smaller lineup that saw Julius Randle paired with Naz Reid rather than Rudy Gobert.
According to play-by-play data, the Gobert-less Randle-Reid pairing spent more time on the court in the fourth quarter (10:50) than in the previous three periods combined (7:30). During that fourth-quarter stretch, Minnesota outscored San Antonio by seven points (31-24) in a game they'd ultimately win by just two. The lineup pulled Wemby at least a bit further from the rim than the Spurs would prefer, but Minnesota also utilized the power of the Gortat screen - where the screener seals and eliminates his own defender after setting an on-ball pick. When worked to perfection, a Gortat screen clears a runway to the rim for ball-handlers, as Randle did for Anthony Edwards in the image below:
Wembanyama's poor offensive performance (5-of-17) obviously played a factor in the Game 1 result, but his somewhat muted fourth quarter on the defensive end is what swung the contest. What a simple yet brilliantly effective adjustment by Wolves head coach Chris Finch. - Joseph Casciaro
Can Sixers solve Brunson?
The Knicks continue to find success running offense through Karl-Anthony Towns, but the story of their Game 1 rout over Philadelphia was an unstoppable Jalen Brunson.
After a tough six-game series against Atlanta in which he was hounded by Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Brunson rarely looked bothered during a masterful scoring performance against the Sixers. The three-time All-Star scored 35 points on 81% true shooting in only 31 minutes of action. Brunson had his way with rookie VJ Edgecombe, the bigger Quentin Grimes, and even Paul George at times. Brunson and the Knicks also made a point of putting the laboring Joel Embiid in pick-and-roll actions, as Brunson punished Philly whether Embiid was in drop-coverage or playing higher up the floor.
How head coach Nick Nurse and the 76ers respond to their obvious Brunson problem will go a long way towards deciding the series. Philly doesn't have perimeter defenders like Daniels or Alexander-Walker, but that doesn't mean the Sixers are helpless. I'd expect George to draw more of the Brunson assignment at some point and for Embiid to spend less time on Towns (perhaps on Josh Hart), giving the Knicks at least some pause before using Embiid's man as the screener. The Sixers can also do a better job of targeting the Knicks' franchise star on the other end of the court and making Brunson expend some energy defensively. - Joseph Casciaro
Can Spurs stay hot from three?
The San Antonio Spurs led all teams in 3-point percentage during the first round, connecting on 41.8% of their attempts. Entering the postseason, 3-point shooting was a major concern surrounding San Antonio's title chances. The team ranked 15th in the league in 3-point percentage. The Spurs attempted the most corner threes in NBA history, largely because of Victor Wembanyama's gravity when he rolls to the rim. Even when he doesn't touch the ball, he creates shots for his teammates.
However, despite the shots Wembanyama created, the Spurs' inconsistent shooting often hurt their offense. That went away in the opening round, but Minnesota's defense is better than Portland's, and the Timberwolves also own a better opponent 3-point shooting percentage than the Blazers.
A greater challenge awaits the Spurs when they open their conference semifinal series tonight (9:30 p.m. ET). Whether San Antonio stays hot from beyond the arc will ultimately decide if Wemby and Co. can reach the conference finals. - Sam Oshtry
Depth, health will decide Knicks-Sixers series
The New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers are the two most talented teams remaining in the East. They both have the top-end talent to earn a trip to the NBA Finals. These teams match up incredibly well, which should create a thrilling series. But health and depth are even more important than talent and matchups. The playoffs are a war of attrition. The Sixers just played a thrilling Game 7 on Saturday and begin their second-round series tonight (8 p.m. ET). Can they withstand another physical battle after such a short turnaround?
It's a fair question to ask, considering Joel Embiid was limping on the court for the final few minutes of Game 7 and Paul George just turned 36. Embiid is probable for Game 1 with a hip contusion, and there is only one day of rest between each game for the first six games of this series. Philly also barely plays its bench, while the Knicks, who are more well-rested, have a reliable second unit. Those factors are ultimately more important than who has the best player in the series or who matches up the best. - Sam Oshtry
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