Mahomes overtakes Allen as MVP favorite following Bills' MNF loss
Patrick Mahomes is the new betting favorite to win the NFL's MVP award, surpassing Josh Allen atop the oddsboard after the Bills' Monday Night Football loss to the Falcons.
However, the race remains tight. Mahomes is +200 to claim his third MVP on ESPN BET and theScore Bet, and Allen moved from +185 to +325 following Buffalo's second straight letdown.
Baker Mayfield, who's having a phenomenal season despite injuries hampering his wide receivers, is wedged between Mahomes and Allen at +300.
MVP odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +200 |
| Baker Mayfield | +300 |
| Josh Allen | +325 |
| Drake Maye | +1100 |
| Matthew Stafford | +1600 |
| Jared Goff | +1800 |
| Jordan Love | +1800 |
| Justin Herbert | +2000 |
| Lamar Jackson | +2500 |
| Daniel Jones | +3000 |
| Dak Prescott | +3500 |
| Jayden Daniels | +5000 |
| Sam Darnold | +5000 |
| Jalen Hurts | +7500 |
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| Pass Yards | Pass TDs | INTs | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1514 | 11 | 2 | 99.0 |
The Chiefs own a 3-3 record after dropping their first two games this campaign, and Mahomes has carried them to those victories. He leads the team in rushing yards and hasn't had his full assortment of offensive weapons to begin the season. With Rashee Rice returning in Week 7, the expectation is that Mahomes will continue to rack up passing stats that will end the year deserving of MVP votes, especially since Kansas City struggles to run the ball.
The Chiefs will need to win the AFC West, eclipse double-digit wins, and likely take the No. 1 seed in the conference for Mahomes to win MVP. But they have a clear path considering the remainder of their schedule, while the rest of the AFC contenders could stumble.
| Pass Yards | TDs | INTs | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1539 | 12 | 1 | 108.5 |
Mayfield is the biggest riser up the oddsboard, having entered the season with +3500 to win the award. The Buccaneers quarterback is single-handedly winning games with one last-minute drive after another. Tampa Bay sits atop the NFC standings at 5-1.
Mayfield's also putting up his insane numbers without a full complement of receivers, and he may need to pull off more magic if rookie standout Emeka Egbuka misses time. Injuries have sidelined Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, making Mayfield's start so much more impressive.
| Pass Yards | TDs | INTs | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1397 | 11 | 4 | 103.1 |
Allen was the clear favorite to win MVP before the Bills dropped back-to-back games in prime time. Losses to the Patriots and Falcons under the lights have seen the Bills go from Super Bowl favourites to being questioned about their quality, as the combined record of the clubs they've beaten is only 3-21 (Saints, Jets, Ravens, and Dolphins).
By the end of the season, Allen should have numbers to keep him in the MVP conversation, and perhaps this two-game skid will be forgotten about. As it stands now, it appears team success may be what stands in the way of Allen claiming a second consecutive MVP honor.
| Pass Yards | TDs | INTs | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1522 | 10 | 2 | 112.5 |
Drake Maye is the fourth favorite, but remains fairly distant from the top three on the oddsboard. The Patriots lead the AFC East after winning their third straight. Maye gave a preview of his potential as a true franchise quarterback at the end of his rookie campaign and is putting on the full show through six games this year.
New England hasn't surrounded Maye with a ton of offensive talent, which might be why the betting market is showing him respect at +1100. Although he might not earn the honor if the Patriots can't hold onto the division lead, Maye's proving he'll be an MVP threat for seasons to come if he can get some help at receiver.
| Pass Yards | TDs | INTs | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| 869 | 10 | 1 | 130.5 |
Lamar Jackson was the preseason favorite to win his third MVP, but a disastrous 1-5 start from the Ravens, combined with a hamstring injury sidelining him for the last two games, has dropped his odds to +2500. Jackson should return after Baltimore's Week 7 bye, at which point he can continue to rebuild his MVP candidacy.
For Jackson to win the award, the Ravens need to run the table and make the playoffs with a 12-5 record. It may sound unlikely, but their schedule is fairly easy the rest of the way. A Week 17 meeting against the Packers could be the only game Baltimore is an underdog in with Jackson under center.
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