Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds: Can anyone beat Joey Chestnut?
The Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest returns to Coney Island for the annual Fourth of July spectacle, and 16-time champion Joey Chestnut is back in the field after a one-year hiatus.
On ESPN BET and theScore Bet, Chestnut is a -1600 favorite (94.1% implied probability) to devour the most hot dogs July 4. He has a career win rate of 84.2%, having only three losses on his resume (2005, 2006, and 2015).
Chestnut was unable to compete last year due to an endorsement deal he signed with a plant-based food company, ending his eight-year reign as the world's best hot dog eater. He's won 16 of the past 18 contests dating back to 2007.
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds
| Eater | Odds |
|---|---|
| Joey Chestnut | -1600 |
| Patrick Bertoletti | +1400 |
| Geoffrey Esper | +1600 |
| James Webb | +2000 |
| Any other contestant | +2500 |
| Nick Wehry | +3300 |
| Derek Hendrickson | +6600 |
So far, Chestnut has attracted 65.4% of the bets and 86.8% of the handle (money wagered). Second favorite Patrick Bertoletti has drawn 11.5% of the bets and 6.9% of the handle.
Chestnut's -1600 odds may be tough to swallow, but you can still wager on his performance by backing his total hot dog prop. His total is 71.5, with odds of -115 for both the over and under. However, he's only gone over that number four times in his 19 career July Fourth contests. He ate 63 and 62 hot dogs in his two most recent appearances.
Despite trends pointing toward the under, 69.9% of the handle on Chestnut's total is on the over.
On the women's side, Miki Sudo is an even bigger favorite than Chestnut. Sudo is -2500, having won the last 10 hot dog eating contests she's competed in. She missed the 2021 edition due to her pregnancy.
The festivities, starting with the women's contest, begin at 10:45 a.m.