Running analysis of Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs

Our hockey writers are sharing observations throughout Round 1 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Check back for daily analysis. Tap to see the upcoming schedule.

Wednesday, April 30

Ousted Habs can hold head high

Montreal wanted to play meaningful hockey down the stretch this season.

Mission accomplished, and then some.

The Canadiens put up a respectable fight against the top-seeded Capitals before being eliminated with a 4-1 Game 5 loss in Washington on Wednesday. The group gained valuable experience in the process.

Really, 2024-25 was a season of non-stop growth in Montreal.

Captain Nick Suzuki, a respected two-way center, leveled up his offensive game en route to a career-high 87 points. Go-to sniper Cole Caufield set a personal best with 37 goals. Dazzling defenseman Lane Hutson exceeded expectations and will probably claim the Calder Trophy. Electric winger Ivan Demidov came over from Russia late in the year but sooner than expected overall, and he showed well in seven games. A third notable rookie, Jakub Dobes, joined Samuel Montembeault as the goalies of the present and future.

There were other positive developments, but we'll stop there for now.

Habs players hugged teary-eyed teammate David Savard extra tight Wednesday. The 34-year-old defenseman is retiring following nearly 900 NHL games. He was the oldest player on an extremely young roster. - John Matisz

D-men are driving offense

Devon Toews, the first defenseman to net a goal in these playoffs, pinched to the crease for a backdoor tap-in as the Avalanche routed the Stars. Thomas Chabot, the latest D-man to score ahead of Wednesday's action, whipped a point shot to the top corner to get the Senators rolling in Game 5.

In between, Nate Schmidt bagged consecutive game-winners for the Panthers and Cam Fowler's five-point eruption got the Blues in the win column. Evan Bouchard produced three assists, two goals, and another two goals in various high-octane Oilers games. Simon Benoit and Jake Sanderson traded overtime clinchers in Ottawa. And Simon Nemec's zone entry, dangle, and finish in double OT briefly prolonged the bruised and battered Devils' season.

Scoring from the blue line is happening in spurts and massive moments. Around the NHL, 31 defensemen combined to pot 39 goals over 37 postseason games through Tuesday. The group is led by Bouchard's four strikes, Schmidt's three, and two apiece from Thomas Harley, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Morgan Rielly.

Defensemen account for five of Toronto's 15 goals and five of Florida's 13. Aaron Ekblad and Seth Jones scored 11 seconds apart in the waning minutes of the third period to push the flabbergasted Lightning to the brink of elimination. Four different blue-liners have scored for the Blues and Hurricanes. Somehow, 30-goal sniper Cale Makar has yet to beat a goalie despite peppering 19 shots on net, the second most at the position after Bouchard.

Over the past three postseasons, NHL defensemen combined to score 35, 26, and 31 goals in the equivalent span of first-round games. Right now, more of them are carrying hot sticks and stepping up at the offensive end. - Nick Faris

Ullmark is Leafs' latest nemesis

Linus Ullmark was the picture of calm in the Senators' net Tuesday. He stoned 29 shots in Ottawa's 4-0 road win at a subdued Scotiabank Arena. He's the sixth goalie whose brilliance in an elimination game prevented the Maple Leafs from closing out a series.

Opposing netminders own a 13-1 record with the following numbers in this Leafs core's 14 closeout opportunities:

Their collective stat line: 408 saves on 433 shots, .942 save percentage, two shutouts, five overtime victories. They famously foiled 30 consecutive Leafs power plays in these games. Toronto's last PP goal in a clinching scenario came from Patrick Marleau's deflection two minutes into Game 7 against the 2018 Bruins.

The Battles of Ontario and Florida are the only ongoing series that haven't featured a goalie change. Ottawa stuck with Ullmark through a few shaky games. Toronto's Anthony Stolarz was dominant early in the matchup and has been let down by a lack of scoring support, with three Leafs goals tallied over the last seven periods of action.

Ullmark's Senators were the 212th NHL team to go down 3-0 in a series. They're the 26th to force Game 6, upping the success rate of underdogs in the situation to 12%, per Hockey Reference. For the record, 15 of those clubs fell in the sixth game, six lost in seven, and four rallied to complete the reverse sweep. - Nick Faris

Pearson's feel-good moment

Stick tap to Tanner Pearson. The veteran forward has been through a lot over the last few seasons.

Pearson was limited to 14 games in 2022-23 due to a hand injury that was mismanaged by the Canucks. Another hand injury limited him to 54 contests with the Canadiens a year ago. After signing a professional tryout, he had to earn a roster spot with the Golden Knights this campaign.

But Pearson played a huge role in the Golden Knights' overtime victory in Game 5 against the Wild, winning a key puck battle behind the net before setting up Brett Howden's game-winner with a sweet no-look pass. The assist was Pearson's first playoff point since the 2020 bubble.

The 32-year-old, who won a Cup with the Kings in 2014, is a depth player at this point in his career, but it's great to see him healthy and contributing again. - Josh Wegman

Caps, Jets, Bolts injury carousel

The expected return of Aliaksei Protas from a skate cut would be a major boost to the Capitals, who have the second round in their sights. Breakout seasons from the likes of Protas, a hulking 30-goal forward, helped catapult the Caps from the playoff fringe to the top of the Eastern Conference. They can eliminate the young, overachieving Canadiens at home in Wednesday's Game 5.

Lit up by the Blues in consecutive games, the Jets hope Gabe Vilardi can supply a spark in his comeback from injury. Vilardi authored his own career year while riding shotgun with Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele on the NHL's most-used forward line. His return strengthens every line and adds support for Connor and Scheifele, who carried Winnipeg to two opening victories but were stifled along with the rest of the lineup in St. Louis.

The Lightning will try to stay afloat without Brandon Hagel, who absorbed the elbow to the head that got Panthers defenseman Aaron Ekblad suspended. The Battle of Florida's been nightmarish for Hagel. He has no points, hasn't been on the ice for a Tampa Bay goal, and was banished from Game 3. Hagel's late hit on Aleksander Barkov initiated a tit for tat in a chaotic, violent series. - Nick Faris

Losing goalies deserving better

There's only so much goalies can do at times. They can do their job incredibly well but have nothing to show for it. Take Jacob Markstrom, for example.

The Devils were vastly outmatched in a 4-1 series loss against the Hurricanes, but Markstrom was the only reason New Jersey was able to steal Game 3 and force overtime in Game 5. He faced 180 shots in the series (36 per game), more than any other goalie in the playoffs. He posted a .911 save percentage and stopped 5.07 goals saved above expected - the second-best mark among goalies this postseason, trailing only his counterpart for most of the series, Frederik Andersen (6.89), per Evolving-Hockey.

Markstrom isn't the only one, though.

Filip Gustavsson stole Games 2 and 3 for the Wild, stopping 30 of 32 shots in each contest. Even in back-to-back OT losses he turned aside 65 of 71 shots - especially impressive considering he was likely playing through an illness in Game 5 before eventually departing after the second period. He leads all goalies with a .919 save percentage this postseason and ranks fifth in GSAx.

Even Darcy Kuemper, whose playoffs started with a rough showing in Game 1, has turned a corner. He was the only reason L.A. managed to stay in Game 5, saving 43 of 45 shots. His save percentage the last four games is .916. Overall, his 1.48 GSAx is eighth-best this postseason - an impressive mark against the high-powered Oilers offense that's totally controlled the last few games. - Josh Wegman

Oilers' unsung heroes emerge

Mattias Janmark, scorer of six goals over his last 151 regular-season games, bagged his sixth goal of the past two postseasons for the surging Oilers in Wednesday's 3-1 win.

They leaned on the Kings until the dam burst. Evander Kane tied Game 5 on the Oilers' 22nd shot, and Janmark was on the spot to bury shot No. 38, a rebound in transition. Coach Kris Knoblauch dresses Janmark to kill penalties and be stingy for 10 minutes a night, but the fourth-line center's reputation for clutch offense continues to grow. Last year, his breakaway finish was Edmonton's only goal in Game 7 of the Cup Final.

Plus-minus is a flawed stat, but there's no discrediting Jake Walman's plus-8 differential in this series, the current NHL high. The deadline pickup gained body position on a Kings forechecker and airmailed the puck to start the rush that led to Janmark's winner. Los Angeles has four goals in the last eight periods, and none in the span when Walman, a defensive stabilizer, has been on the ice. - Nick Faris

Carolina's finally clutch

Sebastian Aho's series clincher at 4:17 of double overtime snapped the Hurricanes' cold streak in sudden death. The Canes had lost six consecutive playoff overtime games since the 2023 Eastern Conference Final on goals by these opponents: Matthew Tkachuk, Tkachuk again, Mathew Barzal, Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin, and Simon Nemec.

A fitting hero pushed Carolina to Round 2. Aho's eight points against the Devils were a series high. He had two power-play snipes in Tuesday's theatrical 5-4 win, starting with the equalizer after the Canes got down 3-0 within 10 minutes and trailed again in the second period. Aho's second career playoff OT goal follows his series finisher against the Predators in the first round of 2021.

Aho models consistency. He's virtually assured to post a double-digit point total for the seventh straight postseason. He's up to 78 points in 79 career playoff outings. The only NHLers with better scoring rates over a similar volume of games are this era's defining legends (Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, Sidney Crosby) and their superstar sidekicks (Leon Draisaitl, Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar, Evgeni Malkin). - Nick Faris

Leafs' power play disappoints - again

The Maple Leafs' five-forward power-play unit dazzled down the stretch of the regular season, then put up five goals on nine opportunities to start the playoffs. The past two games have been a completely different story.

Toronto's power play was a liability in both Game 4 and Game 5.

On Tuesday, it failed to capitalize on three crucial opportunities against Ottawa despite extensive offensive-zone time. Props to the Senators for adjusting their penalty-killing strategy mid-series. All four skaters are collapsing in the slot area, encouraging Toronto to pass the puck around the perimeter while basically daring Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and the other Leafs stars to pick a corner on goalie Linus Ullmark. Zero picked so far.

Making matters worse, the Leafs have now surrendered a shorthanded goal in consecutive games. Matthews misread the PK coverage Tuesday and passed the puck to Adam Gaudette instead of Mitch Marner. Nylander, gassed from a long shift, couldn't keep up with Dylan Cozens on the ensuing rush. Gaudette fed Cozens, and he beat Anthony Stolarz clean for the shortie.

The special teams score in Games 4 and 5: Sens 3, Leafs 0. The power-play time: Toronto 12:24, Ottawa 5:32.

There's much more to pick apart about the Leafs' woeful showing in Game 5. But the headlining issue is the power play and its lack of pop. - John Matisz

Spotless victory for plucky Sens

Brady Tkachuk is apparently a man of his word.

"We're coming back here," the Senators captain barked multiple times to the Canadian Tire Centre crowd Saturday, having just avoided a series sweep at the hands of the Maple Leafs. Now, after Tuesday's statement victory in Toronto, the Senators are indeed headed back to Ottawa. Game 6 of the Battle of Ontario goes Thursday, and all the pressure is on the visiting Leafs.

The Sens played a nearly flawless team game Tuesday. The skater group was excellent defensively in all situations. Goalie Linus Ullmark authored his finest performance so far, turning aside 29 Toronto shots. Key offensive pieces produced - Tkachuk and Tim Stutzle combined for six points, while Thomas Chabot and Dylan Cozens each bagged their first career playoff goal.

The 4-0 win was the Sens' 11th shutout of 2024-25. Their 10 regular-season blanks tied the Connor Hellebuyck-juiced Jets for most in the NHL.

Jake Sanderson deserves a boatload of credit. The stud blue-liner was good in the opener and has upped his value with each passing game. He sniped the winning goal in Game 4 and put on an absolute clinic in modern defending in Game 5. Sanderson eliminated offense all over the ice in a game-high 26:27, leveraging his skating and reach like few NHLers can. - John Matisz

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