2023 Atlanta Falcons betting preview: Wagering on the rebuild's next stage
Marcus Mariota exited stage left early from both the Falcons' 2022 season and Netflix's "Quarterbacks." Still, Atlanta lasted longer in contention for the NFC South than expected.
With their over/under set for only five wins, the Falcons started 4-4 with Mariota. However, after five games of fewer than 200 yards passing and a 1-4 skid, head coach Arthur Smith needed to try something else.
Desmond Ridder showed enough last season to be Atlanta's Week 1 starter for 2023, but that might have more to do with his third-round-pick salary freeing up enough money for the Falcons to spend significantly everywhere else.
Atlanta won seven games last year, two more than its total. The Falcons also went 9-8 against the spread, two games better than their 7-10 straight-up record. Strangely, their only upset win came as 3.5-point home underdogs to the 49ers, so moneyline bets didn't actually go all that well.
2023 season odds
| MARKET | ODDS (O/U) |
|---|---|
| Win total | 8.5 (-120/+100) |
| Division | +225 |
| Conference | +2500 |
| Super Bowl | +6000 |
| Estimated rating | 49/100 |
The betting market has lined the Falcons as a league-average team (50/100), with the slightest lean to over 8.5 wins. However, we'll have to downgrade them slightly in an estimated market rating due to playing in the weakest division in the NFC.
Like the division-favorite Saints, the Falcons' win total is generous relative to their estimated chances to win the Super Bowl.
Schedule outlook
| WEEK | OPPONENT | LOOKAHEAD LINE |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | ATL -3 |
| 2 | GB | ATL -1.5 |
| 3 | @DET | DET -5 |
| 4 | @JAX* | JAX -4 |
| 5 | HOU | ATL -3 |
| 6 | WSH | ATL -2.5 |
| 7 | @TB | ATL -1 |
| 8 | @TEN | TEN -1 |
| 9 | MIN | MIN -1 |
| 10 | @ARI | ATL -2.5 |
| 12 | NO | NO -1 |
| 13 | @NYJ | NYJ -6.5 |
| 14 | TB | ATL -3 |
| 15 | @CAR | CAR -1 |
| 16 | IND | ATL -3 |
| 17 | @CHI | CHI -2 |
| 18 | @NO | NO -2.5 |
*Neutral-site game in London
Like with the Saints, the betting market isn't sure where the Falcons should be rated. We've looked at Green Bay, and why the team's projected for 7.5 wins and has an estimated rating of 45/100. Carolina has a slightly higher win projection. But because of the lack of respect for the NFC South, the Falcons are -3 at home against the Panthers but just -1.5 on the lookahead line the following week when they host the Packers.
Projected as slight favorites in eight games this season, the Falcons will have to take care of business in all of those contests and find an upset along the way to cash the over on their win total.
What's to like about the Falcons
The veteran talent (Jessie Bates, Calais Campbell, David Onyemata) and reclamation projects (Jeff Okudah, Bud Dupree, Mike Hughes) that the Falcons have brought in on defense are far more interesting than the players they let go. They can't do worse than last season's 3.6% sack percentage, last in the NFL.
Atlanta doesn't want Ridder to throw the football. At least not much. Offensively, Bijan Robinson was added to Kyle Pitts and Drake London to form a tantalizing nucleus. The Falcons also still have Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson - who each averaged almost five yards per carry - to run the ball behind a very good offensive line that excels at run-blocking. That'll set up easier throws for Ridder in play-action. Robinson's versatility will keep defenses on their heels since he'll be a dangerous pass-catcher as well.
What's not to like about the Falcons
While the free-agent defenders are improvements on paper, there are few examples of that kind of overhaul resulting in a massive improvement.
It took four games for Ridder to throw a touchdown pass last year. If he can't do what Smith needs him to do, Taylor Heinicke is the next quarterback up. His propensity for turnovers goes against the Falcons' need to be safe with the ball, which is what led to Mariota's exodus. Atlanta is trying to turn back the clock by playing an offense that hasn't been prominent for more than a decade.
Other notable betting markets
| PLAYER | MARKET | ODDS |
|---|---|---|
| Desmond Ridder | MVP | +15000 |
| Most passing yards | +13000 | |
| Most passing TD | +10000 | |
| Bijan Robinson | Offensive ROTY | +275 |
| Offensive POTY | +4000 | |
| Most rushing yards | +1000 | |
| Most rushing TD | +1100 | |
| Most receptions | +6500 | |
| Most rookie receiving yards | +4500 | |
| Drake London | Most receptions | +6500 |
| Most receiving yards | +7000 | |
| Most receiving TD | +4000 | |
| Kyle Pitts | Offensive POTY | +10000 |
| Most receiving TD | +10000 | |
| A.J. Terrell | Defensive POTY | +15000 |
| Arthur Smith | Coach of the Year | +1400 |
We're told you're not supposed to use a first-round pick on a running back, but the Falcons seemed hell-bent on taking Robinson with the eighth overall pick. His prominence in this many betting markets is a good sign that the gamble will pay off. However, with such a short price for Offensive Rookie of the Year, the word is out on the most likely Robinson-related ticket to cash.
We've discussed the Falcons' focus on adding defensive talent, but A.J. Terrell is the closest thing to a singular contender for Defensive Player of the Year at 150-1.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.