U.S. Open best bets: Lifting the curtain on Los Angeles Country Club
After skipping Los Angeles for 75 years, the U.S. Open will give us our first public look at Beverly Hills' best-kept golf secret this week. The Los Angeles Country Club's signature design features both extremely long and short par 3s.
We don't have a lot of course history to handicap this event as LACC hasn't hosted previous professional tournaments. However, wide fairways and largely shaved-down greenside areas resemble Augusta National, while the gnarly rough that borders the bunkers provides a nod to the usual U.S. Open setup.
The top shelf
Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler, or Rory McIlroy? ... Brooks Koepka?
Just when we thought professional golf had settled into a standard trio at the top, Brooks Koepka plowed through the field at the PGA Championship. Finally, after years of phoning in PGA TOUR events and having odds longer than 20-1 come major time, Koepka has made it a foursome at 10-1.
The market has given Scottie Scheffler (+700) the edge for this week, and there's enough tangible evidence to suggest that's fair. He had a historically dominant strokes gained performance at the Memorial Tournament, but his putting was atrocious. Since we know anyone's flatstick can be finicky week-to-week, the market is relying on Scheffler's PGA TOUR-leading strokes gained, strokes gained: off the tee, and strokes gained: approach to prove prescient.
Scheffler's sixth in strokes gained: around the green, which should be more predictive at a venue that's going to demand a creative short game. He also played in the 2017 Walker Cup at LACC, so he's at least familiar with the course. Scheffler's 7-1 odds are short with so many good players in the mix, but a head-to-head against any of the other three is worth a play with a chance to get better outright odds live.
Top draws (odds to win/top 20)
Golfers more valuable than their odds suggest this week:
Collin Morikawa (+3000/+110)
Southern California weather should keep conditions pretty standard for the best ball-strikers, not unlike the mild wind at Collin Morikawa's British Open win at Royal St. George's. Additionally, the fairways should provide enough run-out for those who lack superhero length.
We should expect long approach shots off par-3 tees and from the fairway. Morikawa's name keeps popping up atop metrics in strokes gained: approach, as well as Data Golf's strokes gained per shot from 150-200 yards (first) and 200-plus yards (second).
Morikawa was on the same Walker Cup team as Scheffler, but his odds may have been lengthened because of a withdrawal from the Memorial with back spasms. However, that shouldn't be an issue this week, so we might be getting a deal with +110 odds for a top-20 result.
Tony Finau (+3300/+120)
Using Data Golf's course-fit tool, three big courses show up as comparable tests to LACC: Olympia Fields, Winged Foot, and Liberty National, all of which have held a U.S. Open or a FedEx Cup Playoff event since 2020. If you're trying to figure out who might suit the course this week, here are Tony Finau's results at those venues:
| COURSE | EVENT | RESULT |
|---|---|---|
| Olympia Fields | 2020 BMW Championship | 5th |
| Winged Foot | 2020 U.S. Open | T-8th |
| Northern Trust | 2021 Northern Trust | Win |
Finau comes in under the radar after skipping the Memorial following a missed cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge, so he hasn't played much since winning in Mexico. But his game fits well on this course, and he's fifth on TOUR in strokes gained: approach, so he's capable of contending this weekend.
Sepp Straka (+15000/+450)
Our last two weeks were saved by long-shot top-20 finishes, with Adam Schenk and Sam Bennett sneaking up leaderboards late. At the PGA Championship, we picked up on Sepp Straka's outstanding ball-striking (fifth in strokes gained: tee to green) before he snuck into the top 10, dominating weekend matchups. He's continued to play well with a T29 and T16 in subsequent events, so at +450, he'll be our bet for a big payout in the top 20.
The scary fade
A golfer with high expectations who's worth betting to miss the cut at a big price.
Cameron Young (+170 to miss cut)
Hopes were high for Cameron Young's partnership with new caddie Paul Tesori. However, there's only so much he can do with Young, whose post-Masters results are T51, T59, cut, cut, and T57. Young's length won't be its usual difference-maker, since being in the correct spot on the fairway here is more important than bombing it deep. Another missed cut might be on the horizon.
The favorite club in the bag
We've picked two golfers to bet to win each week: Max Homa and Tom Kim. Assuming they play 20-25 events, we're expecting our second-tier oddsboard duo will win more than once and be profitable. It took one week for that approach to pay dividends: Homa won at Torrey Pines at 20-1 and almost added a second win at Riviera.
Are Max and Tom playing this week?
Given Homa's mark in California and the course-record 61 he shot in college 10 years ago, he's been getting hype for this event since he won at Torrey Pines. As a result, his odds have gone from north of 50-1 to 25-1.
Kim's strength is ball-striking from distance as he's 14th in strokes gained: approach. He's 100-1 to win, but +330 for a top-20 result is a more prudent play.
Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.