CBB betting: How to bet the Big 12 Tournament

Kansas City once again plays host to what is arguably college basketball's most exciting tournament, featuring teams from perhaps the nation's best conference.

When the last-place team records a blowout win over a top-five outfit in the country, it's safe to say that there are no nights off in the Big 12. With multiple fanbases claiming home-court advantage at the conference tournament, expect a wild environment for the weekend in the Power and Light District.

Tournament odds

Early-round bets to make

(10) Oklahoma vs. (7) Oklahoma State
March 8, 9:30 p.m. EST

In such a hotly contested league, once we move to a (theoretical) neutral site, our first instinct will be to take any points we can get. That applies to "Bedlam: Basketball Edition," where end-of-season market ratings made Oklahoma State a two-point favorite on a neutral court. The idea that the Cowboys need a win to firm up their resume might send the spread higher.

Oklahoma defend and shoot the 3-pointer better than the Oklahoma State, and this is one matchup where the Sooners' propensity for giveaways may not hurt them, as the Cowboys have a below-average turnover margin.

Sooners coach Porter Moser just spent a few years wreaking havoc in both Arch and March Madness with Loyola-Chicago. While Oklahoma State swept the regular season - thanks to outshooting the Sooners - third time's the charm, so expect Oklahoma to play the role of spoiler Wednesday.

Pick: Oklahoma (+1 or better)

(5) Iowa State vs. (4) Baylor
Quarterfinal, March 9, 12:30pm EST

Baylor was -8 at home in this matchup on Saturday, so without any ratings change, the Bears should be about -4 in Kansas City. However, Iowa State won that game in Waco handily, so hopefully the market doesn't react too aggressively - especially since that was the Cyclones' second 15-point win over Baylor this season.

The Cyclones have the best adjusted defensive ShotQuality metrics in the country, which means Baylor's league-leading 3-point percentage will be put to the test.

Despite the quality of teams that Scott Drew has had at Baylor, they haven't even made the final of this tournament since 2012. Iowa State won this event four times since then, with a fanbase that travels to Kansas City to turn T-Mobile Center into "Hilton South." While T.J. Otzelberger wasn't at the helm for any of those wins, he may have saved the season with some moves in the locker room leading up to Saturday's win.

Pick: Iowa State (+3 or better)

Late-round matchup to target

(6) TCU vs. (2) Texas
Semifinal, March 10

TCU got struck by the injury bug in February, so its metrics - along with its record - tilted in a negative direction. Now that Jamie Dixon's team is healthy, it can make some postseason noise.

In a game before Mike Miles and Eddie Lampkin got hurt, TCU led in Austin by 12 points with under 10 minutes to play only to drop the contest late. With both back in the lineup, the Horned Frogs held onto that same lead in Fort Worth last week. Even with those players missing a chunk of time in between, the Frogs are still top-20 in both offensive and defensive adjusted shot quality this season, and they take 10% more shots from around the rim and behind the arc than Texas.

TCU will have its hands full with Kansas State in the quarters, but a win there could show that it's dangerous enough to win the whole thing.

Pick: TCU (+1 or better)

Best bet to win the tournament

Similarly good Kansas teams have had far shorter odds than this in the past, but with the caravan coming from down the road in Lawrence, you know the rowdy Jayhawks contingent will have their own stake in the "home away from home" argument.

Kansas took Baylor's willpower a couple weeks ago in an already legendary second half at Allen Fieldhouse. While Bob Huggins' West Virginia is always a thorn in Bill Self's side, the Jayhawks' potential path is as good as it could be considering the depth of the conference.

Pick: Kansas (+350)

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.