CFB Week 9 big games: Big favorites and toss-ups headline the slate
Sometimes, stuff happens.
Sometimes Clemson fumbles a mesh handoff when it could probably just execute a traditional run play to score against Syracuse. Instead, the Orange return the fumble the length of the field for a 14-point swing.
Sometimes Kansas State, who you bet at +3.5, takes an 18-point lead, only to see both the star quarterback and the experienced backup get hurt, allowing TCU to storm back for not just the win but the cover as well. It happens, and it might be the difference between going 2-3 in this space last week or something better.
No. 2 Ohio State @ No. 13 Penn State (+15.5, 61)
It could be claimed that Penn State bounced back from being embarrassed at Michigan, but a big win over Minnesota's overwhelmed freshman quarterback forced into his first start in the Nittany Lions' "White Out" game isn't the same as knocking off Ohio State.
The metrics suggest this is the best defense the Buckeyes have faced all season, with the closest competition being Notre Dame in the season opener when Ohio State managed just 21 points.
However, we just watched the Wolverines hang 41 points on Penn State, thanks to over 400 yards rushing. The Buckeyes would take half of that on the ground, but unlike Michigan, they have Heisman candidate quarterback C.J. Stroud. Even if Ohio State scores just 30 points, there's no guarantee that Sean Clifford can get to 14 points against Jim Knowles' defense. His unit won't give up 361 passing yards like it did in last year's matchup.
Line outlook: Ohio State -15.5
No. 20 Cincinnati @ Central Florida (-1, 55.5)
Cincinnati hung on for dear life at SMU last week, surviving a game-tying 2-point conversion attempt. Meanwhile, UCF would've happily taken that, as it got worked over at ECU. But now the Knights are back in "The Bounce House" with an offense that's a problem to prepare for, thanks to John Rhys Plumlee's ability to supplement a top-10 run game.
Cincinnati has the defensive reputation, having sent multiple players to the NFL last year, but Football Outsiders rates it almost equally to UCF in the defensive efficiency index. That's an eye-opener, as Football Outsiders' offensive metric rates UCF 24th, compared to 64th for the Bearcats.
Line outlook: UCF -1
No. 9 Oklahoma State @ No. 22 Kansas State (-1, 57)
This line suggests to me that Wildcats star quarterback Adrian Martinez won't be available this Saturday because I'd expect the line over -3 if he was good to go. Since his status is shrouded in mystery, a bet now has to rely on Will Howard being able to play.
Howard had to leave last week's loss at TCU as well, but the expectation is that he'll be OK to play if Martinez can't. With ample experience, Howard can lead K-State to a win thanks to its outstanding run game and a top-10 defense that's better than it looked in Fort Worth.
Oklahoma State managed to play a penalty-free game in upsetting Texas last week, but I doubt it'll get the same officiating treatment on the road. Spencer Sanders has had his own weekly injury mystery, but the Wildcats can handle him.
As an added bonus, if Martinez plays, you'll be getting a ton of closing-line value on the better team at home.
Line outlook: Kansas State -1
Florida vs. No. 1 Georgia (-23, 56.5)
On the flip side, you'll want to wait as long as possible before making a play on Florida. The neutral-site event formerly known as "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" acts as a big game for both teams, and I expect the Gators to put their best foot forward.
Georgia had some trouble covering big numbers against Missouri and Kent State before blowing out Auburn - who may be in the process of removing its head coach - and Vanderbilt, who is Vanderbilt. Now the Bulldogs have Tennessee on deck, which is more important in securing the SEC East.
The line has moved early this week, so +24 might become available, but anything over three touchdowns should be coverable with Anthony Richardson. The Gators hung with Tennessee and LSU and will be able to move the ball enough to stay inside the number.
Line outlook: Florida +23
No. 19 Kentucky @ No. 3 Tennessee (-13, 63)
Speaking of next week's SEC East showdown, it would be easy to overlook Kentucky, but ask those in the state of Tennessee how they feel about their rivals.
For all the talk about Will Levis as a prospect, we haven't seen him take advantage of a porous pass defense to the degree that he'll need to in order to keep pace with Hendon Hooker.
The Wildcats' defense is capable of stunting the mid-level SEC teams in order to keep a game close enough to where Kentucky can exact its edge in coaching. However, the Vols hung 50 against Alabama's defense, so Kentucky will likely need at least four touchdowns to cover this number. Best of luck to them.
Line outlook: Tennessee -13
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.