CFB Week 7 big games: Will home fields provide a sizable advantage?
Not all college football slates are created equal, so the bar for what's considered a big game raises and drops each week. Sometimes, an intriguing game with divisional positioning on the line is enough to qualify, but with apologies to Minnesota-Illinois and Clemson-Florida State, that won't cut it this week. We'll need both teams to be ranked to get our attention.
No. 10 Penn State @ No. 5 Michigan (-7, 52.5)
Michigan is known in part for the physicality of its defense. However, Football Outsiders has the Wolverines ranked 10th in their defensive efficiency ratings, while Penn State is fifth. The Wolverines have Blake Corum, third in the nation in rushing yards, but Penn State has a 6-foot, 220-pound tailback who's averaging 7.3 yards per carry. Coming off a bye, Nicholas Singleton and his offensive line should be considerably fresher than the Wolverines' defense.
Throw in some uncertainty about the quarterbacks in the biggest of games, and these teams start to seem more evenly matched. A spread of a full touchdown is enough for me to take the points in the first fork in the road in the Big Ten East.
Line outlook: Penn State +7
No. 3 Alabama @ No. 6 Tennessee (+7, 65)
Alabama escaped again. This time the Crimson Tide had the excuse of being without Bryce Young, but that doesn't explain their defense giving up 323 yards to Texas A&M's generally uninspiring offense.
When Alabama survived Texas, the defense gave up 371 yards, with Hudson Card at the Longhorns' controls for most of the game.
Alabama's visit to Arkansas, while not so much a survival, was a five-point game through three quarters. The Tide gave up 377 yards, but three runs of 70-plus yards in the fourth quarter helped them to over 500 yards on offense, and they pulled away.
Arkansas' offense, 24th in yards per game, is the best of the three, and now the Tide head to Neyland Stadium to take on Hendon Hooker's top-ranked offense in the country. Tennessee won't likely have its usual 550 yards, but how many will the Volunteers rack up, considering the comparable games above?
Line outlook: Tennessee +7
No. 8 Oklahoma State @ No. 13 TCU (-4.5, 68)
Oklahoma State got enough breaks to beat Baylor and was even more fortunate to somehow cover the early line against Texas Tech. The Cowboys were outgained 527-434 at home against the Red Raiders. That's why TCU is favored by more than a field goal at home.
TCU's offense can outgun Oklahoma State, and while the defense struggled against two different quarterbacks in Lawrence last week, getting it done on an important day for Kansas was impressive. Now, back in Fort Worth, the Horned Frogs can finally expose the Cowboys, jump them in the ratings, and stay undefeated.
Line outlook: TCU -4.5
No. 15 North Carolina State @ No. 18 Syracuse (-3, 44)
I'm not a doctor, but a quarterback on the sideline with a sling on his throwing arm doesn't bode well for a game one week later. Head coach Dave Doeren will tell you Devin Leary is day-to-day, but we'll bet that if he is able to play Saturday, he won't be 100%.
North Carolina State pulled off the win at home against FSU with Leary out, relying entirely on its defense and running game. Syracuse being favored this week suggests the Wolfpack will need to do the same again, and I doubt they can this time in the dome.
Line outlook: Syracuse -3
No. 16 Mississippi State @ No. 22 Kentucky (+6.5, 46.5)
Four games qualified for this space last week. We had two bets and won those easily. The other two were a "pass," and sure enough, those contests toggled across the point spread in true coin-flip fashion. Moral of the story: We don't need to play every game.
With futures consideration on Mississippi State, one more win would set up an epic clash in Tuscaloosa. If Bama doesn't get out of Knoxville and the Bulldogs win here, next week would be for the inside track on the SEC West.
Kentucky would need Will Levis to play to be live at +7, but we won't get any clarity on that anytime soon. If you can get a green light on his health before the line moves, take it.
Line outlook: Pass
No. 7 USC @ No. 20 Utah (-3.5, 64.5)
We've hypothesized UCLA might be really good, and that's been confirmed in the last two weeks. So we're not giving up on Utah, especially at home.
USC escaped Oregon State in Corvallis two weeks ago, but this is a next-level challenge in Salt Lake City against Kyle Whittingham's group. The Utes know they need to get this game at home to keep a Pac-12 title realistic, and they won't lose the turnover battle the way the Trojans' previous opponents have. Hopefully, the USC money will take the hook, and we'll get a flat -3 on Utah, but I doubt we'll need it.
Line outlook: Shop for Utah -3 (-120 or better), bet Utah -3.5 before kickoff
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.