CFB Week 1: Best bets for Friday night lights
College football's long, drawn-out opening weekend continues with a dip in game quality, as the "Friday Night Lights" board isn't quite as attractive as the older-than-their-character cast of the eponymous television show from the late 2000s. However, there are a few games worth a bet from the ranks of the unranked.
Virginia Tech @ Old Dominion (+7.5, 49.5)
It's a far cry from four years ago when Old Dominion shocked Virginia Tech as a four-touchdown underdog in Blacksburg in one of the biggest point-spread upsets in college football history. That the line for this matchup is down in the neighborhood of just a touchdown says more about what's happened since at Virginia Tech than at Old Dominion.
ODU didn't even play football in 2020 due to concerns over the pandemic. That time off showed early in 2021, as the Monarchs lost their first six games against FBS competition. Admittedly, the early schedule was tough, but Rick Rahne's group pulled together five straight wins to end the regular season to find their way into a bowl game - in part because of a switch to Hayden Wolff at quarterback.
The Monarchs have moved from Conference USA into the Sun Belt, which means they're familiar with the Hokies' new starting quarterback, Grant Wells. They faced him prior to his transfer from former conference foe Marshall. ODU forced Wells into a QBR of 31.2 in an overtime road loss last season.
Ironically, Rahne, the former Penn State offensive coordinator, hosts former Nittany Lions' defensive coordinator Brent Pry in his first game as Tech head coach. Pry has to do a lot with very little, especially in the trenches, so the Monarchs won't be bullied at the line of scrimmage.
With Wolff winning the offseason quarterback competition, 10 offensive starters return, so look for the Monarchs to be able to move the ball against what was a bad Hokie defense last year, giving themselves a chance for an upset of marginally less significance than four years ago.
Pick: Old Dominion +7.5
Temple @ Duke (-7, 51.5)
This isn't a matchup you'd see at a Panther party on a bye week in Dillon, Texas; it's not pretty. Given the situation at both Temple and Duke, this handicap comes from a qualitative place. It's about energy.
At age 51, Stan Drayton may not be the next big thing in head coaching. What we do know is that he made his name working the run game for the Chicago Bears and, most recently, at Texas. He inherits a talented but raw quarterback in D'Wan Mathis, who flashed in an upset of Memphis but flopped the rest of 2021. If Drayton can tailor the Owls' offense around the former Georgia transfer, there's some upside to Temple.
At age 45, Mike Elko may not be the next big thing in head coaching, but he's got more of a track record at higher coaching positions, coming from a stint as defensive coordinator at Texas A&M. The problem for Elko is that the talent he was left with from David Cutcliffe is the furthest cry from what Elko is used to. The Blue Devils averaged 14.9 points on offense and gave up 46.6 points per game in the ACC last season, and their only wins were against NC A&T, Kansas, and Northwestern. With next-to-no home-field advantage, should they be favored by a full touchdown against anyone? I think not.
Pick: Temple +7
Illinois @ Indiana (-3, 45.5)
This line ticked down from over a field goal toward Illinois after the Illini won and covered easily for us last week, but it hasn't been adjusted enough. Illinois didn't have the toughest matchup against a lowly Mountain West team, but its domination of Wyoming is an indication that Bret Bielema's squad may be taking a step forward this year.
We don't have a game to confirm our preseason thoughts about Indiana yet, but given that we're down on the Hoosiers, we won't wait for that confirmation. Grab the field goal with Illinois before those who agree weigh in to drop the line inside of three.
Pick: Illinois +3
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.