CFB Week 1: Best bets for Thursday night
You should be happy if you got out of Week 0 making a profit, given the uncertainty involved in a strange slate of games. A 3-2 start gets us the first of many steps closer to our season-long point spread goal of close to 60%.
We click further up the first ascension in the season-long rollercoaster with another handful of games on Thursday night.
West Virginia @ No. 17 Pittsburgh (-7.5, 51)
Luckily our trio of ATS wins last week were all comfortable victories since each one saw the line move throughout the week after we published our picks. With Pittsburgh creeping up over a touchdown, now is the time to pounce on West Virginia, securing some potential closing-line value - as we did last week - before anticipated buyback on the Mountaineers hits the market.
Significant changes have hit both teams since last season, creating uncertainty about what to expect. However, our best guess for the Panthers is that Pat Narduzzi will happily go back to a conservative offense that keeps games close with the re-hiring of Frank Cignetti to replace Mark Whipple - who used Heisman candidate Kenny Pickett's arm more than Narduzzi would have liked, believe it or not.
While a more run-heavy approach fits for when Pitt is the underdog, the Panthers are the favorite here, which opens the door for a high-variance team to surprise them. Kedon Slovis transferred in from USC, but will he be used efficiently?
Neal Brown brought in his own former Trojan quarterback, JT Daniels - by way of Georgia - and his former USC offensive coordinator, Graham Harrell. Daniels was felled by injuries and Stetson Bennett's handling of the Bulldogs' offense, forcing Daniels to leave Athens. That doesn't mean the highly-touted Daniels can't excel. Getting more than just a functional offense to pair with a good defense means the Mountaineers might be able to do more than just hang with the Panthers in the "Backyard Brawl."
Pick: West Virginia +7.5
Penn State @ Purdue (+3.5, 54)
A night in-conference game on the road isn't an ideal start for James Franklin, and while he's committed to Sean Clifford as his quarterback for yet another year, I'm not. Meanwhile, the home underdog might have the better coach and quarterback: Jeff Brohm and Aidan O'Connell, respectively.
The total feels a little low for two teams that should be throwing aggressively, but you never know what Franklin has planned. We definitely know that O'Connell will be throwing early and often after he roasted powerhouse programs in Iowa, Michigan State, and Tennessee last season.
On the road, in what should be an electric environment in West Lafayette, I'll bet against Penn State having fixed its offensive line issues from last season. Unable to protect Clifford or gain much push in the run game a year ago, the Nittany Lions could be in trouble against a live Purdue team.
Pick: Purdue +3.5
Central Michigan @ No. 12 Oklahoma State (-21.5, 59.5)
A total of nearly 60 implies that Central Michigan - one of the contenders in the MAC - will be able to score against the Oklahoma State defense that saw its star coordinator leave for Ohio State in the offseason. If that's the case, then I dare Spencer Sanders and the Cowboys' offense to put up enough points to pull away comfortably enough that the Chippewas' offense, which averaged 32 points per game last year, won't be able to at least cover via a backdoor score late. Grab this number while it's north of three touchdowns, and don't be surprised if the Chips put a scare in Stillwater.
Pick: Central Michigan +21.5
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.