Rocket Mortgage Classic betting: The long road in Motown
Tony Finau accomplished a massive comeback at the 3M Open last week to both win as the favorite and enable those backing a somewhat obvious pick to cash their tickets. But for our purposes, Cameron Champ's similar battle from 6-over to a top-20 spot at +220 was more critical.
Thanks to Champ's perseverance, along with a predictable off week for Sahith Theegala, we earned some small winnings on what was a lame PGA TOUR event.
This week's field gets a marginal bump as more of the PGA's headliners tee it up at Detroit Golf Club. Driving distances have historically been key to claiming this event, where the winning score has been -25, -23, and -18 in the three tournaments played in the Motor City. Here, Patrick Cantlay bumps Finau from the top of the oddsboard.
Power Draws
Max Homa (+2200)
Homa's missed cut at the British Open interrupted a good run of results. New to Scottish links golf - and potentially distracted by being grouped with his hero, Tiger Woods - Homa couldn't make enough putts. After more than enough time off, he returns stateside to play a target-golf course that should allow his season-long form to shine. At +140 for a top-20 result, Homa's too good, and the field is too soft, not to expect him to have a good weekend.
Maverick McNealy (+4500)
McNealy is a microwave - when he gets hot, it happens quickly. He had a slow start last week with a pair of 71s, but he came into the 3M having finished T8, T16, and T9 in his previous three outings. Those took place on a variety of courses and formats, including the John Deere Classic, the Scottish Open, and the Stableford scoring system at the Barracuda. He's +225 for a top-20 result. We'll see if he can string together four good rounds at a place where he's finished eighth and 21st the last two times he's played at Detroit Golf Club.
Joohyung Kim (+5500)
Our new favorite, "Tom" missed out on the top-20 result we predicted last week by two strokes. The logic we applied going into the 3M Open still applies, as well as a +275 payout on a top-20 spot for a player who's gained a half-stroke on his competitors. While Kim's played just a handful of events and doesn't yet qualify for a Strokes Gained ranking, the events he has played were the biggest of the season.
Soft Fades
Jason Day
Day is a big name in these events, but it's been a while since he's played like it. The recipe of long drives and quality putting that put him amongst the game's elite doesn't exist for him anymore. He's 133rd in strokes gained: off the tee and 90th in driving distance. That doesn't bode well for him at the Rocket Mortgage, where he missed the cut in 2020.
Day has shot in the 60s just once in his last 14 tournament rounds. He'll need at least one of those just to make the cut. At +140 to miss the weekend, fading Day to do that makes sense this week.
Russell Henley
This course isn't for Henley, and it seems like he knows that. He missed the cut in the first event at DGC in 2019 and hasn't been back since. Henley is 155th in driving distance and loses ground off the tee, so betting him at +150 odds to miss the cut is worth a shot.
Scott Stallings
"Go big or go home" is Stallings' modus operandi. He's missed the weekend 10 times over 19 events in 2022, but he's offset that with seven top-25 finishes. This week, his average tee game means we'll lean to an 11th missed cut at +170.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.