Mexico Open betting: No Vallarta vacation for those win hunting

A new tournament on the rotation sees a return to Mexico for a second time this season. It's not quite the must-see cast of "Bachelor in Paradise," but Vidanta Vallarta gets a chance to host a field that has prohibitive favorite Jon Rahm (+400), with home country hero Abraham Ancer (+1800) owning the second-best odds.

Three draws

Gary Woodland (20-1)

We've talked about Gary Woodland looking for his first win since the 2019 U.S. Open in this space before, and he's been boom-or-bust this season. A missed cut at The Masters was disappointing, but outside of being right in the middle of the nightmare conditions at TPC Sawgrass, Woodland's recent T5, T5, T8, and T21 in standard Tour events means he's going out of his way to try for that next win.

Heading down to Mexico against a mediocre field tells me Woodland is win hunting with just a few high-end players standing in his way. Even if he fails to win, he might succeed for bettors backing him at +110 for a top-20 finish.

Cameron Champ (50-1)

It's hard to have a quieter top-10 finish at The Masters than Cameron Champ had. Seriously, look it up. He never shot in the 60s and was barely on the broadcast but played well enough for a big payday. Champ's strategy this season appears to be a "less is more" attitude. However, much of the few times he's played he's missed the cut.

From a talent standpoint, Champ is one of the best players in this field, and if he plays like he did down by Magnolia Lane, he could go low this weekend. At +190 for a top-20 finish, he's worth a bet for a good week.

Bill Haas (200-1)

His $30 million in career earnings has given Haas an exemption this season allowing him to turn his career around, 11 years after a difficult FedEx Cup championship. His best result this season is a T25 - which is why Haas is +600 for a top-20 finish. But with seven straight made cuts, he's shown the consistency to be able to hang around for the weekend. With a weaker field and his game showing signs of life, I'll take a flier on a familiar name to play well on Saturday and Sunday.

Three slices

Jon Rahm

I'm not even saying Rahm won't win. Frankly, he should. Which is why he's +450 to do so. It's just that we're talking about over 150 professional golfers, many of whom can change their career with a big weekend. It's not worth hoping Rahm is locked in to win a birdie fest with the short price.

Alex Smalley

With a handful of golfers similar in status, there could be a case made for any of them to miss the cut. Smalley's struggled on Fridays, shooting over par in the second round over his last five starts. He's +150 to miss the cut this weekend.

Adam Svensson

Svensson has missed the cut in four of his last six starts, and he's 160th in sand saves. There's plenty of beach in the Puerto Vallarta course that is unfamiliar to the players this week.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.