NL MVP best bets: Freeman, Turner have elite upside in L.A.

Earlier this week, we broke down our favorite plays to win the NL Cy Young and AL Cy Young. Now, we're targeting the MVP market, starting with the top bats in the National League.

Juan Soto was the favorite when we broke down the early odds for this market in February, and he's created some separation with his price tightening to 3-1 ahead of Opening Day. He may very well win it after finishing as the runner-up in 2021, but there's better value further down the board.

Here are the odds to win the 2022 NL MVP at Barstool Sports and our best bets to cash:

Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (+1100)

It's easy to get caught up in the hype around Freeman's debut with the Dodgers and fade him out of principle, especially with his price less attractive now than it was a few weeks ago. But don't let any contrarian leans obscure some legitimate value right in front of you.

Let's not forget Freeman won this award just two seasons ago when he hit a ridiculous .341 in a shortened 2020 season. He followed that up by slashing .300/.393/.503 in 2021 with 31 home runs and an NL-best 120 runs en route to a ninth-place MVP finish - his sixth top-10 campaign since 2013.

Freeman has been in the MVP conversation each of the past four seasons, and now he'll anchor arguably the best lineup of his career with a strong narrative case to boot. You may prefer to fade the shiny new toy in Los Angeles, but I'm gladly buying Freeman's stock everywhere I can.

Trea Turner, Dodgers (+1400)

If you don't like laying the price on Freeman, why not bet on his teammate at a better value? Turner deserves respect in this market after finishing fifth and seventh, respectively, in NL MVP voting over the past two seasons.

He was especially sizzling after swapping a Nationals jersey for Dodger blue at the 2021 trade deadline, hitting .338 with a .950 OPS and 10 home runs in 52 games with his new club. He led the NL in hits (195), batting average (.328), steals (32), and total bases (319) across the entire season, and he's a legitimate threat to lead the majors in runs near the top of Los Angeles' stacked lineup.

You could make the case that a fifth-place finish was low for Turner, who was also one of five players to garner a first-place vote. If he can continue to increase his power production - he set career highs in home runs (28) and hard-hit rate (46.4%) in 2021 - Turner has all the makings of an MVP.

Nick Castellanos, Phillies (+4000)

Bryce Harper rode an all-around hitting display to MVP honors with the Phillies in 2021. Can Castellanos do the same? The 10th-year veteran has long been one of MLB's elite hitters, but his stellar 2021 campaign earned him a top-15 MVP finish for the first time in his career.

There's reason to think Castellanos could build upon that career season, in which he ranked in the top five in the NL in average (.309), slugging (.576), and wOBA (.391). He ultimately settled for 12th place in MVP balloting with the Reds. His low walk rate (7%) leaves something to be desired, but he traded those free passes for a career-high 34 home runs - tied for the seventh-most in the NL.

Castellanos' hard-hit rate (46.9%) and average exit velocity (89.8 mph) actually dipped in 2021, but his strikeout rate (20.7%) returned closer to his career average, suggesting his HR numbers may not be as inflated as they appear. If he can marry that power surge with his ever-impressive contact skills, he could follow Harper's path to a legitimate MVP campaign.

Other notable bets: Tyler O'Neill (+2500), Austin Riley (+2500), Christian Yelich (+4000)

C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at [email protected].