How to bet the NBA Most Improved Player Award in 2021-22
You know it, you love it ... and you have no idea how to bet it. The NBA's Most Improved Player Award has been the springboard for some of the league's biggest stars, from multi-time All-NBA stars Jimmy Butler and Paul George to two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. That doesn't answer the central question in this market: what does "most improved" mean, anyway?
Take Julius Randle, for example. The Knicks big man set career highs in points (24.1), rebounds (10.2), and assists (6.0) in what appeared to be a breakout 2020-21 campaign. A closer look reveals he was actually less effective as a rebounder on a per-36 basis than any full season in his career, and he was a less efficient scorer than in past years but with slightly higher usage.
The biggest difference? A massive spike in minutes. Randle went from averaging 32.5 minutes in 2019-20 to leading the league with 37.6 minutes per game in 2020-21 - enough to carry him to a near-unanimous victory in the MIP race, despite similar per minute production to his previous season.
So is it really as simple as identifying players with the biggest potential increase in minutes? Well, not exactly. Here's a look at the last 15 winners and how their minutes changed from the previous season:
| SEASON | PLAYER | MPG | PREV MPG | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Julius Randle | 37.6 | 32.5 | 5.1 |
| 2019-20 | Brandon Ingram | 33.9 | 33.8 | 0.1 |
| 2018-19 | Pascal Siakam | 31.9 | 20.7 | 11.2 |
| 2017-18 | Victor Oladipo | 34 | 33.2 | 0.8 |
| 2016-17 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 35.6 | 35.3 | 0.3 |
| 2015-16 | CJ McCollum | 34.8 | 15.7 | 19.1 |
| 2014-15 | Jimmy Butler | 38.7 | 38.7 | 0 |
| 2013-14 | Goran Dragić | 35.1 | 33.5 | 1.6 |
| 2012-13 | Paul George | 37.6 | 29.7 | 7.9 |
| 2011-12 | Ryan Anderson | 32.2 | 22.3 | 9.9 |
| 2010-11 | Kevin Love | 35.8 | 28.6 | 7.2 |
| 2009-10 | Aaron Brooks | 35.6 | 25 | 10.6 |
| 2008-09 | Danny Granger | 36.2 | 36 | 0.2 |
| 2007-08 | Hedo Türkoğlu | 36.9 | 31.1 | 5.8 |
| 2006-07 | Monta Ellis | 34.3 | 18.1 | 16.2 |
While none of the last 15 winners saw their playing time decrease in their MIP-winning season, five of them saw an increase of less than a minute per game - or, in Butler's case, not at all. And while six of them moved from a reserve role into the starting lineup, the rest were already starters to begin with.
If it's not explained by minutes alone, then that brings us back to our central question: how are these players improving? And are there any consistent trends we can use to uncover potential breakouts in this market?
The answer lies in their rate stats. While it's tough to find key trends in their per game numbers because of the wide gap in playing time, things become much clearer when looking at yearly improvements on a per minute basis for those last 15 winners. See if you can spot the trend:
| STATISTIC | CHANGE | % CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| MPG | 6.4 | 22.1% |
| PTS/36 | 4.46 | 27.2% |
| REB/36 | 0.2 | 3.22% |
| AST/36 | 0.77 | 22.99% |
| STL/36 | 0.03 | 2.51% |
| BLK/36 | 0.04 | 6.93% |
| FG% | 0.02 | 4.87% |
| 3PT% | 0.04 | 12.2% |
| FT% | 0.06 | 7.93% |
| Usage | 4.07 | 19.13% |
First and foremost, this is an offensive-minded award. While the last 15 winners increased their scoring by 7.1 points per season, they've seen marginal gains (if any) in steals and blocks, while improvements on the boards have been equally irrelevant. Efficiency isn't important, either, but playmaking is - the last six winners have bumped their per-36 assist totals by nearly 50% on average, which was among the keys for Randle (+67.3%) a year ago.
Perhaps more crucial than growth is opportunity. Since 1999-00, every MIP winner has averaged at least 31.9 minutes per game, and 16 of those 22 played at least 35 MPG. Their role within those minutes is even more significant: every winner in the last 15 years has seen their usage increase, often substantially, which has led to sizable gains in their PER and win shares.
So, what are we looking for? Ideally, a player with room to improve as a scorer, though more by volume than by efficiency. We're also looking for a player with the ball in his hands - 11 of the last 15 winners have been a point guard or wing, and nearly all of them enjoyed notable upticks in their usage and assist rates.
With that said, here are some of our favorite targets to win it in 2021-22:
Fred VanVleet, G, Raptors (+3600)
Will this finally be VanVleet's time to shine? While the Raptors guard quietly led his team in minutes (36.5) and ranked second in points (19.6) and assists (6.3) a year ago, the versatile guard still took a clear backseat to Kyle Lowry as the team's primary facilitator.
With Lowry heading to South Beach, nearly 20% of Toronto's assists from a year ago are up for grabs, and VanVleet is in line to assume the lion's share. He played just 40% of his minutes at point guard across the full 2020-21 season; when Lowry was off the floor, he spent 80% of his time at PG and bumped his assist rate to 6.7 per 36 minutes, which would have ranked just outside of the top 20 across a full season.
VanVleet also averaged a career-high 19.6 points despite shooting 38.9% from the floor, his worst mark since he was a rookie in 2016-17. He's due for some serious positive regression as a shooter; paired with his elevated role as a passer, VanVleet is on the verge of a classic MIP campaign.
Dejounte Murray, G, Spurs (+4500)
Murray's name is high on short lists for this award year in and year out because of his potential for growth as a scorer. The former first-rounder showed signs a year ago, bumping his PPG by nearly five points, but he'll finally get his shot as a centerpiece in the Spurs' offense this season.
Murray ranked second on the team in points (15.7) and assists (5.4) a year ago behind DeMar DeRozan, who inked a massive deal with the Bulls this summer. That leaves Murray as the primary initiator for one of the youngest teams in the NBA, a role he'll be assuming for the first time in his career.
He's up for the task: the 6-foot-4 guard posted a career-low turnover rate (10.2%) in 2020-21 despite seeing a 12.5% increase in his usage, which bodes well for how he'll handle another bump in 2021-22. Given Murray's elite floor as a defender, he has the makings of a true breakout season.
Matisse Thybulle, SG, Philadelphia 76ers (+8000)
While this award doesn't tend to reward defensive improvement, it does have a soft spot for elite perimeter defenders - Victor Oladipo (2.4), Butler (1.8), George (1.8), and Monta Ellis (1.7) all ranked in the top 10 in steals per game in their MIP-winning seasons within the past 15 years. Thybulle (1.6) ranked ninth a year ago despite playing 20 minutes per game and could lead the league with even a modest bump in playing time.
He's in line for that to happen if Ben Simmons has indeed played his final game with the 76ers, which would open up both playing time and opportunity for Thybulle in the backcourt. He may not be a starter, which hurts his case, but the Sixers' best perimeter defender could play anywhere from 25-30 minutes per game with increased responsibility as a secondary facilitator and shot-creator.
Doesn't that sound an awful lot like the archetype for this award? Thybulle is the least developed offensive player on this list, and his improvement on that end will be about more than just playing time. If he can show growth as a shooter and initiator, though, his upside is immense in this market.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.