5 overvalued teams to fade ahead of 2021 NFL season
On Tuesday, we broke down five of the most undervalued teams in the NFL in various futures markets. Conversely, here are five teams we're staying away from heading into the 2021 season, along with their preseason Super Bowl odds and win total at theScore Bet:
Seattle Seahawks (+2300, 10 wins)
The Seahawks have won at least 10 games in eight of the last nine seasons and won this division a year ago behind a 12-win campaign. That said, they're the only group in the NFC West that appears worse now than 12 months ago, and that could finally spell the end of this team's three-year playoff run.
Seattle added very little during the offseason and lost more than it could afford. The team downgraded significantly in a secondary that was already easily exploitable, and it lacks any semblance of a pass rush after cutting Aldon Smith just a few months after signing him. The offensive line is still a liability, leaving little margin for error for Russell Wilson to play Superman once again. He faded down the stretch in that role a year ago and likely won't be able to do it all for this group in 2021 amid a much tougher field.
Los Angeles Chargers (+2800, 9 wins)
The Chargers are one of only two teams with shorter than 30-1 title odds despite posting a losing record in 2020. The other is the 49ers, who were the most injured team in the league a year after making the Super Bowl. Doesn't this all feel a little too soon to anoint Los Angeles as a dark-horse contender?
Yes, Justin Herbert is a rising star, but he already played like one last year during a 7-9 campaign as a rookie. Since 2000, nine quarterbacks have won Rookie of the Year; five of the eight before Herbert threw for fewer passing yards as a sophomore than as a rookie, and six of eight finished with a worse record. There are pieces here for a solid core, but this price has a Herbert progression baked in before we ought to be paying for one.
Dallas Cowboys (+3000, 9.5 wins)
There are too many questions with this club to feel confident betting these numbers. Chief among them: is Dak Prescott healthy enough to play 17 games and a full postseason, and can this team win if he doesn't? The Cowboys quarterback suffered one of the more gruesome injuries in recent memory, and he's already battling a shoulder injury in training camp that is slowing his return to game action.
Is Ezekiel Elliott, who has been the engine of Dallas' run-heavy attack for five years, finally wearing down? Can this defense turn things around after ranking 28th in points per play allowed in 2020? There aren't enough answers to buy this team as a division winner.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+4400, 8.5 wins)
It may feel odd to fade such an iconic franchise like the Steelers, who have won at least eight games in every season since 2003. That streak may end this year behind one of the least inspiring teams from that era. It starts on offense, where Pittsburgh will employ a new scheme while trotting out five new starting offensive linemen to protect 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger, who threw four interceptions in his last game. Yikes.
The Steelers' defense still boasts one of the best front lines in football, but that alone isn't enough to merit any sort of excitement in an AFC North that projects to be one of the best divisions in football. That won't be because of the black and gold.
Atlanta Falcons (+5000, 7.5 wins)
The Falcons have been priced to win at least 7.5 games for each of the last three seasons. Every year, they fall short, and this year doesn't look like it'll be any different. Atlanta's defense has been among the NFL's worst in that span and still lacks a consistent pass rush or secondary, which is a bad recipe in the pass-happy NFC South.
While the Falcons added star tight end prospect Kyle Pitts in the draft, he won't be enough to replace the gaping hole left by All-Pro receiver Julio Jones, who forced his way to Tennessee over the summer. This may feel like a perennial seven-win team, but after a four-win campaign in 2020, even this win total feels like a reach.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.