2021 MLB best bets: A comprehensive guide to fatten your wallet

You're here for predictions, not pleasantries. Actually, most of you are here to Ctrl+F your favorite team and slander us in the comments for not picking them to win the pennant.

Either way, let's jump right in.

AL East

Cowart: I can't say I buy all of the hype on this Blue Jays squad, which is markedly improved with George Springer, Marcus Semien, and a host of upside arms joining the fray. But I can't buy the Yankees at this price - they've rewarded bettors once in eight years despite often coming at a cost - and the Rays sold off too much talent to grab my attention.

Kolodziej: Everyone's going to hit in the AL East, but the overall talent of the Yankees' pitching staff sets them apart. Blake Snell and Charlie Morton are gone, and the Blue Jays will give 'em up faster than they can score. I don't like laying juice in the futures market, but I still think the price is short.

Moretto: I'm avoiding the AL East altogether, but if I had to pick, give me the division's deepest pitching staff at 4-1 in a season where pitching depth could prove king.

AL Central

Cowart: I love everything about this White Sox team. Chicago's lineup is overflowing with MVP candidates, its rotation is the AL's best, and the bullpen is downright nasty with Liam Hendriks in tow. Only youth or injuries can derail a club this talented.

Moretto: The Royals probably aren't going to win the AL Central, but pricing them alongside the Tigers is downright disrespectful. They're building a good team in Kansas City - the rotation is budding with potential and the lineup is deep, if not spectacular. With a ton of top prospects pushing their way through the system, the Royals' future could very well be now.

AL West

Cowart: The baseball world has decided the Astros are about 20% worse than they actually are, which is reflected in nearly every market. Don't conflate 60-game slumps with post-cheating hangovers for Houston's lineup, which is still among the AL's best.

Kolodziej: I'll admit it: The Athletics' lineup lost a bit of luster from last year and the pitching staff could turn out to be pretty volatile. However, the Astros lost pieces and the Angels, by the law of the baseball gods, aren't allowed to go over their win total.

Find me at the doorstep of the PECOTA offices when Oakland goes 77-85.

NL East

Kolodziej: I'd be terrified every fourth or fifth day given the lack of depth in the Nationals' rotation, but the trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Patrick Corbin is terrifying. Plus, Kyle Schwarber and Josh Bell are welcome additions to a lineup that includes MVP favorite Juan Soto. 8-1 is criminal.

Moretto: Another offseason, another healthy serving of blue and orange Kool-Aid for the public. I'll believe Steve Cohen can buy an NL East title when I see it.

NL Central

Kolodziej: I hate picking the Cardinals to win the division more with each passing day. I'm going way out of left field and taking the Reds, who can't possibly be worse offensively than they were a season ago.

Moretto: The Brewers have a pair of legitimate Cy Young contenders in the rotation, MLB's best bullpen, an elite defense, and a perennial MVP candidate anchoring a sneakily dangerous lineup. Is that good?

NL West

Cowart: The Dodgers are a juggernaut, sure, but it isn't worth paying such a short price (-250) on any team to win its division with how injuries and luck can swing these races. San Diego can (almost) go toe-to-toe with L.A. at a much better price.

AL pennant

Cowart: Elite pitching wins in the postseason, and few teams can boast the upside of an Indians rotation led by reigning Cy Young winner Shane Bieber and potential breakout stars in Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, and Triston McKenzie - who's my favorite dark horse to win the Cy Young. Cleveland's lineup is due for positive regression, too, which would turn this team from a long shot to a legitimate contender.

NL pennant

Moretto: I don't want to get too chalky here, and the Brewers have the pitching to match up against anyone in a best-of-seven series.

World Series

Cowart: Notice a trend here? Moretto and I are both high on the Brewers, who have everything you'd want from a potential World Series contender with the price of an also-ran. If Christian Yelich is even 90% as good as he should be and the rotation is firing on all cylinders - watch out.

Kolodziej: The Yankees have been paper tigers for years, but the AL is theirs for the taking. All nine players in the order can top 20 homers, Gerrit Cole is the Cy Young favorite, and the bullpen, while strong, doesn't need to be perfect. It wouldn't be a huge payout, but I'll take the Bronx Bombers, who have an easy path through the pennant.

Moretto: If you haven't caught on yet, I'm all-in on Houston this season. Mired by the drama of the cheating scandal, everything that could go wrong for the Astros last year did, and they were still a game away from the World Series. The lineup is lethal - welcome back, Yordan Alvarez - and the rotation is stacked with analytical darlings. You won't find a better team anywhere close to this price.

AL MVP

Cowart: What if I told you someone who finished third in MVP voting in 2017 and 2018 before finishing second in 2020 - after leading the majors in fWAR (3.4), no less - was priced at 13-1 to win it this year? Ramirez continues to rake as he enters his prime. If he's the catalyst for a resurgent Indians offense, he'll be among the top finishers once again.

NL MVP

Moretto: Yelich worked extensively over the winter with hitting coach Andy Haines, who said the slugger is back to looking like he did in 2018 and 2019 when he finished first and second in MVP voting. Sure, 2020 was bleak, but look at Yelich's three seasons in Milwaukee and tell me which one is the anomaly.

AL Cy Young

Cowart: I explained my excitement for Maeda in greater detail in my Cy Young best bets piece, but here are the cliff notes: Maeda was a top-five pitcher in 2020 and dispelled the workload concerns that followed him from Los Angeles to Minnesota. He's an ace, and he deserves to be priced like one.

Kolodziej: Giolito's finished in the top seven in Cy Young voting in each of the last two seasons, and his team wasn't contending. With the Sox projected for close to 90 wins, he's a great look at 5-1.

Moretto: It's a chalky price for such a volatile market, but Cole's biggest challengers - Bieber and Giolito - no longer have the luxury of pitching only against the AL and NL Central.

NL Cy Young

Cowart: Flaherty looked like the future face of baseball with his scintillating run to end the 2019 season before everything went wrong in 2020. I'm willing to chalk up his struggles to the Cardinals' long layoff and his inability to loosen up for his starts. Besides, his underlying stats were fine. He's legit.

Kolodziej: This is a chalky pick, but nobody's been able to touch deGrom's stuff. Could you imagine what would happen if his team scored runs for him?

Most home runs

Cowart: How in the world is Robert priced this far down the board? He's got one of baseball's purest swings and he hit nine home runs in a 20-day stretch as a rookie before slumping to end the year. He's talented enough to sort through those issues and get back to mashing taters, especially at this price.

Kolodziej: Suarez nearly bashed 50 homers a year ago and his home park ranked No. 1 in adjusted home runs. He's been in the 90th percentile in barrel rate each of the last two years, so let's take a flier on the Reds slugger.

Most pitcher wins

Cowart: I love the White Sox and I love Giolito. This is like betting a poor man's deGrom with a better team at a better price. Sign me up.

Kolodziej: If I started 10 games against the NL Central, I think I'd pick up a minimum of six wins.

Moretto: Woodruff won 11 contests in 2019 despite barely pitching 120 innings, and he continued his dominance in the shortened 2020 season. His 3.12 FIP since 2018 is the eighth-best in baseball during that span, and he's backed by a strong supporting cast while pitching in a weak division. At 55-1, I'm sprinting to the window.