AL MVP odds, best bets: Mike Trout or the field?
Another year, and another season when Mike Trout enters as the favorite to win the AL MVP Award. The three-time winner is the clear front-runner in the 2021 field, though the Angels star narrowly missed winning as a short favorite in 2020. Can he bounce back during a full-length season?
Here are the odds to win the AL MVP (50-1 or shorter), and what to know about the favorites and potential sleepers:
| Player | Team |
|---|---|
| Mike Trout | +200 |
| Alex Bregman | +1000 |
| Aaron Judge | +1200 |
| Jose Ramirez | +1300 |
| Anthony Rendon | +1700 |
| Matt Chapman | +1800 |
| DJ LeMahieu | +2500 |
| Gleyber Torres | +2500 |
| Luis Robert | +2500 |
| Eloy Jimenez | +3000 |
| George Springer | +3000 |
| Jose Abreu | +3000 |
| Rafael Devers | +3000 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +3000 |
| Tim Anderson | +3500 |
| Xander Bogaerts | +3500 |
| Bo Bichette | +4000 |
| Carlos Correa | +4000 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | +4000 |
| Yasmani Grandal | +4000 |
| Yoan Moncada | +4000 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +4000 |
| Austin Meadows | +5000 |
| Field | +5000 |
| J.D. Martinez | +5000 |
| Jose Altuve | +5000 |
| Josh Donaldson | +5000 |
| Ramon Laureano | +5000 |
| Randy Arozarena | +5000 |
| Shohei Ohtani | +5000 |
Mike Trout, OF, Angels (+200)
To bet Trout or not to bet Trout? That's the question hanging over everyone who bets on this award, which has gone to the Angels slugger in three of the last seven seasons.
One of the four seasons when he didn't win was 2020, a campaign that ended with Trout posting his worst OPS (.993) since 2016, and his worst batting average (.281) since his rookie season in 2011. He still finished fifth in MVP voting, which speaks both to his baseline brilliance and the respect he draws from MVP voters.
Still, it's hard to recommend him at this price. Jose Abreu came out of nowhere to take the honor in 2020, and long shots almost always hold the most value in a volatile market. Pass on Trout for now.
Jose Ramirez, 3B, Indians (+1300)
What more does Ramirez have to do to win this award? The Indians third baseman finished third in MVP voting in 2017 and 2018, and he was the runner-up behind Abreu last year despite leading all players in fWAR (3.4) during the shortened campaign.
Ramirez's improved batting average in 2020 (.292) tracks almost perfectly with a higher BABIP (.294), though he still posted the third-highest walk rate (12.2%) of his career, and similar batted-ball metrics to past MVP-level campaigns. Cleveland's lineup doesn't do him any favors, but Ramirez has proven he doesn't need help to post gaudy numbers.
DJ LeMahieu, 2B, Yankees (+2500)
After nearly a decade of average to above-average play from LeMahieu when he was with the Rockies, it's easy to forget just how incredible he's been over two seasons with the Yankees.
The versatile infielder hit 26 home runs with a .327 average to finish fourth in MVP voting in 2019, and he followed that with a league-leading 1.011 OPS and eye-popping .364 average en route to a third-place MVP finish in 2020.
Is that sustainable? Precedent says no, but two years of elevated play suggests the market still isn't taking LeMahieu seriously enough after back-to-back top-five MVP finishes. He's worth a shot at these odds.
Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Angels (+5000)
Is this finally the year Ohtani takes the league by storm? The two-way sensation hasn't exactly lived up to his billing over three MLB seasons, and his disastrous 2020 - when the 26-year-old hit .190 while posting a 37.80 ERA - doesn't inspire confidence heading into 2021.
A stellar spring does, though. The Angels star is hitting .600 with a monstrous 1.701 OPS through 29 plate appearances, and while his ERA leaves more to be desired, Ohtani has still struck out 14 batters over just eight innings. There's a lot of smoke around him this year, but I'll gladly pay to see if he's for real at this price.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.