2021 AL Cy Young preview: Cole favored ahead of defending champ Bieber
Shane Bieber was flat-out ridiculous in 2020.
Even after cutting ties with a bulk of their rotation through free agency and trades, the Indians struck gold with the 6-foot-3 right-hander. Bieber went scorched earth to the tune of an 8-1 record over 12 starts and owned a 1.63 ERA, 14.2 K/9, and 3.3 WAR, which ultimately won him the Cy Young.
And he's not even the 2021 favorite in a loaded AL.
Here, we'll dive into the upcoming season's prices and gloss over some initial impressions.
Player | Odds |
---|---|
Gerrit Cole (NYY) | +350 |
Shane Bieber (CLE) | +400 |
Lucas Giolito (CWS) | +450 |
Tyler Glasnow (TB) | +900 |
Hyun-jin Ryu (TOR) | +1300 |
Jose Berrios (MIN) | +1700 |
Lance Lynn (CWS) | +1700 |
Corey Kluber (NYY) | +1800 |
Kenta Maeda (MIN) | +2000 |
Dallas Keuchel (CWS) | +2200 |
Marco Gonzalez (SEA) | +2500 |
Jesus Luzardo (OAK) | +2500 |
Framber Valdez (HOU) | +2500 |
Luis Severino (NYY) | +3000 |
Zack Greinke (HOU) | +3300 |
Andrew Heaney (LAA) | +3300 |
Nate Pearson (TOR) | +3300 |
Frankie Montas (OAK) | +3500 |
Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) | +4000 |
Dylan Bundy (LAA) | +4000 |
Dylan Cease (CWS) | +4000 |
Nathan Eovaldi (BOS) | +4000 |
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) | +4000 |
Mike Minor (KC) | +4000 |
Alex Cobb (LAA) | +4400 |
Triston McKenzie (CLE) | +5000 |
Casey Mize (DET) | +5000 |
Brady Singer (KC) | +5000 |
Randy Dobnak (MIN) | +6000 |
Cristian Javier (HOU) | +6000 |
Jose Urquidy (HOU) | +6000 |
Justin Dunn (SEA) | +6600 |
Cole leads the pack
Surprise, surprise. After leading the American League at +275 for the award just last season, Cole's back on top. He finished fourth in AL Cy Young voting a year ago thanks to a 7-3 record. However, his ERA (2.84), K/9 (11.6), and WAR (2.2) weren't even close to Bieber's.
Cole's typically in contention, placing top-five in three straight years. Plus, with the Yankees projected for north of 100 wins, that'll certainly help pad his resume.
FanGraphs' Steamer projections favor Bieber over Cole this year, but not by much.
White Sox well-represented
The only other team with multiple candidates within the top eight is the White Sox, with Giolito and Lynn.
The former burst onto the scene with a breakout 2019 season before coming back down to earth during last year's shortened campaign. Meanwhile, Lynn is fresh off two of the best seasons of his career.
And then there's Keuchel, who turned in a brilliant first season with the White Sox. He'll likely need to dominate more to impress the voters, though: he hasn't posted a K/9 better than 8.0 since 2015, which was ironically the last time he won the Cy Young.
The markets are high on Chicago this season. The franchise has the best odds to win the Central and is in the second tier of World Series contenders behind the Yankees and Dodgers. If they make a deep run, the rotation will be a big reason for it.
Orioles, Rangers miss the cut
Notice a couple of teams missing? The Orioles and Rangers are the only two AL teams without a pitcher listed. PECOTA projections tab Baltimore for a league-low 66 wins, with Texas right behind at 67.
The 2019 Orioles became the first team ever to allow more than 300 home runs in a season, and now feature a staff headlined by Matt Harvey and Felix Hernandez.
The Rangers have a lot of recent former pitchers on the list - Lynn, Minor, and Kluber. The 2021 rotation's unproven and should get beat up plenty by the rest of the AL West.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.