World Series Game 1 betting preview: Home run potential in opener
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And so it begins.
The 2020 World Series has something of a David vs. Goliath feel to it as the Dodgers, with MLB's second-highest payroll, take on a Rays team with the 28th.
The Dodgers are making their third appearance in the Fall Classic in four seasons, but last won a championship in 1988 - 10 years before Tampa joined the league. The Rays are making their second World Series appearance in franchise history, chasing their first title. You can find our full series betting preview here.
Now let's dive into Game 1.
Rays (+150) at Dodgers (-170), 8:09 p.m. ET
We are treated to a delectable pitching matchup in Game 1. Future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, desperate to overcome his and the Dodgers' World Series struggles, takes on Tyler Glasnow, the young, hard-throwing right-hander eager to help the Rays to their first championship in franchise history.
Glasnow has been missing a lot of bats in this postseason, striking out 25 over 19.1 innings, but he’s struggled to keep the ball in the yard. Excluding the abbreviated start against the Yankees on short rest, he's allowed six home runs in 17 innings - two in each of his three starts. It’s an issue that plagued Glasnow all season, as an inflated 1.73 HR/9 rate ranked as the fifth highest among pitchers to throw at least 57 innings.
Now he faces a Dodgers lineup that topped MLB this season with 91 home runs against right-handed pitching, while posting the second-lowest K percentage against righties, behind only the Astros. Glasnow is among the best strikeout pitchers in the league, but against Houston he only struck out five in six innings after managing 20 in 13 1/3 innings in his previous three postseason starts. And when he isn’t missing bats, the home run potential is always there. Glasnow allowed a 42.4 hard-hit percentage this season, with a 90.4 average exit velocity off the bat. Both marks were ranked in the bottom fifth among pitchers.
Game 1 could turn into a home run derby at Globe Life Park. Kershaw has been tagged for three long balls in his last two starts, as well as three doubles, and the Rays have plenty of success against left-handed pitching. Tampa leads all teams with 25 home runs in the postseason, and Randy Arozarena - their hottest hitter - went yard four times in just 20 at-bats against southpaws during the regular season.
This is a huge start for Kershaw. In his four World Series starts, he's allowed 16 runs in 22 2/3 innings and five home runs. The 32-year-old is coming off a season in which he allowed an 8.0 barrel percentage, by far his worst mark since Baseball Savant began tracking the stat in 2015. He'll face a Rays lineup that ranked fourth in MLB this season with a .220 ISO and 121 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Runs won't be as scarce in this one as the total suggests.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.