Ryan Leaf: Chargers a good fit for Herbert

Ryan Leaf thinks quite highly of this year's top quarterback prospects ahead of the 2020 NFL Draft. However, the second overall pick in 1998 - and widely considered among the all-time draft busts - cautions against expecting too much too soon from rookie QBs.

Take Oregon's Justin Herbert, for starters. The 6-foot-6 signal-caller is most commonly featuring in mock drafts as Miami's selection at No. 5 (barring a trade). Leaf raves about Herbert's potential, but worries about fans' hopes for the 22-year-old to immediately resuscitate a losing franchise.

"I think where he is far and away better than I was at the time is his maturity level, his smarts, the head on his shoulders, what he does from Saturday to Saturday, what he will do from Sunday to Sunday," Leaf told "Pushing The Odds with Matt Perrault" on Monday. “I think he’s much more prepared for that.

"You never know what it's going to be like; you don't know what team you're going to go to. Usually when you're that high at the draft, you're most likely going to a team that's in some sort of dysfunction. It's rare that a playoff team or a team on the other end that gets a top-five quarterback isn't in some sort of dysfunction. You have to really be a guy that walks into that locker room and changes the environment. And there hasn't been many that have done that. In the last 20 years we've only had one top-five quarterback win a Super Bowl and it was Eli Manning. And he did it twice. It's been more down the board where you get an opportunity to go to better teams. So you're hoping for the best."

Leaf, now a college football analyst for the Pac-12 Network and ESPN, isn't in favor of throwing rookies to the wolves from Day 1. The 1997 Heisman finalist infamously struggled as a rookie starter with the San Diego Chargers, throwing only two touchdowns against 15 interceptions in 10 games.

Leaf believes the Chargers, now in Los Angeles and holding pick No. 6, would be the ideal landing spot for Herbert.

"For the best possible outcome for him, I think it would be to go to a program that allows for a young man maybe to sit a little bit and not necessarily need to play right away. And I think the Chargers are a good fit," he said. "Tyrod Taylor is there. There is a quarterback in place where Justin Herbert can sit, and learn, and develop. And the fan base is not as rabid in Los Angeles, as we've seen the last three years in Carson, where Chargers fans just really didn't show up.

"So if the team struggles a little bit, I don't think the fan base is going to act like the likes of Cleveland, or in Miami, or something like that, (where) they're going to be clamoring for the young rookie to play - or it won't be as loud."

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In Leaf's crystal ball, the QBs will be going fast and furious come Thursday night in the league's first-ever virtual draft due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

"I do think that all three of those quarterbacks - Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Tua Tagovailoa - are probably going to go in the top five. I wouldn't be surprised if Washington or Detroit moved out of those spots and tried to make a deal to get some more draft equity to move back a couple spots and allow the first three picks in the draft to go to quarterbacks."

As for his outlook on Tagovailoa, Leaf is concerned about teams' inability to test out the Alabama product in-person but doesn't anticipate the doubts surrounding his hip or ankle health leading to a draft-day slide.

Burrow, said Leaf, shows immense potential based on what he achieved last season at LSU. But, again, he's concerned about the burden of expectations while starting for a league-worst team.

"Just watching the entirety of the season and what Joe Burrow was able to accomplish, he had more touchdown passes than he had inaccurate targets," Leaf said. "That’s absurd. And it's going to have to be that way at the next level. The only problem is he's most likely to go to the Cincinnati Bengals. And my biggest fear for Joe Burrow, is we just never hear from him again because he sits in mediocrity for the rest of his career."