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The ultimate guide to betting the NFL draft

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If you don't currently have Twitter notifications set for Adam Schefter, Daniel Jeremiah, Ian Rapoport, and other draftniks, I'm sorry to tell you that you're already failing "Intro to Betting the NFL Draft 101."

One week out from the 2020 rendition, I have 36 props ready to go. Roughly 75% of them started with a ding from my phone, me rushing to the nearest location with Internet, rummaging through prices, and locking in something before the rest of the world did. That's just a microcosm of what to expect when playing in these markets, which is a far cry from handicapping a lone Thursday Night Football game in November.

Paying close attention to those in draft circles is just one advantage of staying ahead. With next Thursday approaching, here's everything you need to know about betting - and beating - the 2020 draft.

Line shop

Shopping for the best line is critical, no matter the market. But considering the volume of props being offered coupled with the volatility of, say, the over/under on a player's draft spot, you'll find an array of prices that vary by book. Right now, I'm currently looking at three shops. One has Jerry Jeudy as the first receiver off the board at -130, another has CeeDee Lamb as the favorite at -120. Henry Ruggs is as long as +300 and as short as +125.

Save yourself a couple bucks and take five minutes to shop.

Pay more attention to the combine than mock drafts

Thinking about reading up on a mock draft from Mel Kiper or Todd McShay and making a play off it? It's probably not the best idea, seeing as they're both market-setters; anything from them is essentially already baked into any line or prop.

Paying attention to the combine - and the period thereafter when stocks drastically rise and fall - has personally been more beneficial than staying up to date on mock drafts. Ever wonder how some of these players you've rarely heard of creep into the first round on an annual basis? Most of these risers get a boost from testing or pre-draft interviews long after their game film has been reviewed.

For example, some players I bought post-combine before the hype was legit were wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Denzel Mims, who were both fringe first-rounders last month. Jefferson ran better in the 40 than expected and Mims was a Draft Twitter crush. They're now both chalk to go in the first round.

Conversely, I sold Jake Fromm before his stock plummeted. Already regarded as a second-tier quarterback heading into the combine, Fromm didn't test well. Once the quarterback market dried up in free agency, he was the first true sell at the position in terms of 2020 prospects.

Use matchup props to your advantage

The props can certainly be overwhelming, considering there's enough volume to rival a Cheesecake Factory menu. Some of the early, popular bets were deciphering which player will be the first selected at their position, which can be a lot of work when you're evaluating seven or eight players in one field.

Currently, I have a pretty good idea of whose stock is significantly up or down in the draft community. It's especially advantageous to have different opinions on players at one specific position; therefore I can make a judgement call on a matchup prop, which is a standard two-way market. Think of it as betting on a traditional game, except the moneyline in this case is whichever player gets drafted first.

For instance, selling Fromm goes beyond taking the over on his draft spot. I can now also put more eggs into that basket by betting a matchup prop alongside another quarterback, whether it be taking Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts (+110 to be selected before Fromm) or Washington's Jacob Eason (-180).

And once the Patriots nab the Georgia signal-caller and turn him into the next Tom Brady, you'll know exactly who to thank.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.

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