Can bettors trust Rockets' small-ball lineup to win NBA title?

For the second straight year, the Rockets are making a compelling title case during the final quarter of the NBA season.

Last year, Houston jumped from 11th in net rating before the All-Star break to first after it, but the team fell to the Warriors for the fourth time in five postseasons. This year, the Rockets ranked ninth in net rating (+3.4) before All-Star Weekend, and since then they're third (+12.1), behind only the Bucks (+13.3) and Clippers (+12.3).

Houston's success this season has coincided with the surprising deadline deal that was effectively a swap of 6-foot-10 center Clint Capela for 6-foot-7 wing Robert Covington, nudging the Rockets toward a quintessential small-ball lineup. The team is now 9-3 since Feb. 1 (third-best in the NBA), with the top-ranked offense after the All-Star break.

Despite its recent success, Houston still owns the eighth-shortest title odds at theScore Bet in New Jersey (+1800), and the club is a distant long shot compared to the Lakers, Bucks, and Clippers at nearly every bet shop.

Here's a look at every team shorter than 50-1 to win the NBA title:

Even with their hot stretch, the Rockets still offer relative value on the oddsboard. Are they worth betting to finally win it all?

Small lineup, big results

Houston has embodied nearly every stereotype you'd expect from a team with a 6-foot-5 center and no primary rotation players taller than 6-foot-8. And, for the most part, that approach is working.

Since Feb. 1, the Rockets boast the fourth-best offensive rating (115.7) with the league's sixth-highest pace, and they've thrived in isolation with the floor spaced. They've used isolation on 20% of their possessions this season - nearly double the next-highest rate - and are averaging 1.05 points on those drives, by far the best in the league.

The presence of James Harden and Russell Westbrook skews those numbers, but Houston's five-out approach also clears the lane for its two stars. That's partly why Westbrook is enjoying one of his best career stretches while leading the league in points in the paint since Feb. 1 (19.8 per game), topping a list littered with power forwards and centers.

The biggest question marks with a small lineup usually come on defense, but the Rockets are mostly passing those tests, too. Houston ranks seventh in defensive rating (108.9) since Feb. 1 with the third-highest turnover rate, all thanks to a switching defense with characteristics from past elite units.

This whole thread is worth watching:

That almost looks like a zone at times, doesn't it? It's reminiscent of the Raptors' amorphous defense from 2018-19 they used to halt Giannis Antetokounmpo and give the Warriors fits in The Finals. The strategy can take stars out of their rhythm and negate the pick-and-roll bonanza talented teams rely on often.

But it could also create issues for the Rockets if they get the wrong playoff matchup.

Size still matters

To win the NBA title, the Rockets will presumably need to beat Milwaukee or one of the two L.A. teams, or maybe even all three if current seeds hold.

In addition to being elite and versatile defensively - which hinders Houston's five-out attack - all three teams can punish the Rockets inside. Among squads with a winning record, the Lakers (first), Bucks (second), and Clippers (fifth) rank among the top five in points in the paint. Those teams also feature some of the league's best interior scorers.

Antetokounmpo is second in the NBA in points in the paint (17.5 per game), while Clippers forward Montrezl Harrell sits fourth (15). Lakers stars Anthony Davis (13.1) and LeBron James (12.9) rank in the top 10, and the former scores the NBA's fifth-most points on post-ups. And we all saw what Kawhi Leonard can do from the block during the Raptors' title run last year.

Individually, all five of those players generate problems for a switching defense, which inherently allows an offense to scheme up one-on-one mismatches. This year, Westbrook (39.6) and Harden (38) rank in the bottom five in points allowed in the paint, and both have become worse since the deadline deal.

The Rockets are also dead last since Feb. 1 in rebounding rate (44.6%) and defensive rebounding rate (32.5%), which leads to plenty of second-chance points for bigger opponents. Harrell, Antetokounmpo, and Davis rank in the top 15 in second-chance points scored, and Harden, Westbrook, and center P.J. Tucker rank in the bottom 10 in allowing such points. Those matchups could be the difference over a full series.

Conclusion

In a vacuum, the Rockets are good enough to win a title. Their offense is efficient, their defense faces a path to success, and 18-1 odds are juicy for a team one or two breaks away from a championship run. We saw last year how quickly injuries can swing The Finals. And two years ago streaky shooting did the same in the semis when the Rockets fell apart.

But stay away at anything shorter than 15-1. Houston has gone small before with great success, but only in spurts, and the full commitment to a "zero-center" lineup is inviting trouble in a season when the three heavyweights are dominant inside. It's worth waiting for a worse price in the playoffs, and seeing if the Rockets can prove it against one of the top-tier teams.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.