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2020 Orioles season preview: The good news is it's a short season

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The Baltimore Orioles enter Year 4 of a lengthy rebuild and are likely satisfied that the 2020 season will only be 60 games.

Baltimore is coming off a 108-loss campaign and spent the offseason making the club worse in the short term by trading away Jonathan Villar and Dylan Bundy. The only free agent brought in on a major-league deal was the light-hitting Jose Iglesias. Making matters worse, star outfielder Trey Mancini will miss the entire season while undergoing treatment for colon cancer.

While anything can happen during this unprecedented season, the Orioles are almost guaranteed to be among the league's worst teams. That's likely fine, however, for general manager Mike Elias. Significant payroll has been moved out, playing time has been created for young players, and losing seasons have helped rebuild the farm system. Another year in the basement could net the organization either one of prized pitching prospects Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter in the 2021 draft.

2020 Breakdown

2019 record: 54-108 (5th in AL East)
Payroll: $83,011,000
Projected record: 21-39 (5th)
World Series odds: +50000
3-year trend: 2017 (5th); 2018 (5th); 2019 (5th)
Key addition: Jose Iglesias
Key subtraction: Jonathan Villar
Highest projected WAR: Austin Hays/Hanser Alberto/Iglesias (0.5)
X-factor: Chris Davis
Prospect to watch: Ryan Mountcastle
Winter report card: C

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Projected Lineup

Order Player Pos. Proj. WAR
1 Austin Hays CF 0.5
2 Jose Iglesias SS 0.5
3 Anthony Santander (S) LF 0.4
4 Renato Nunez DH 0.1
5 Chris Davis (L) 1B -0.3
6 Hanser Alberto 2B 0.5
7 Rio Ruiz (L) 3B 0.4
8 Pedro Severino C 0.2
9 DJ Stewart (L) RF 0.3

Bench

Player Position Proj. WAR
Chance Sisco (L) C 0.1
Pat Valaika IF 0.0
Dilson Herrera IF/OF 0.0
Andrew Velazquez (S) IF/OF 0.0
Cedric Mullins (S) OF 0.0

*Bold indicates player acquired during offseason

The Orioles finished in the bottom third of the majors in hits, home runs, average, on-base percentage, and slugging last season. Things don't look like they're going to improve much either, as no player is projected to post an OPS over .800 this season, according to FanGraphs. There's some pop in the lineup with Nunez, Hays, Santander, and Davis, but no player who should scare the opposing pitcher. After an encouraging spring training, it will be interesting to see if Davis can put together a bounce-back year. The slugger is entering his age-34 season and has $46 million remaining on his contract after 2020. He's the only active position player on the roster earning more than $2.5 million this season.

Rotation

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Pitcher Throws Proj. ERA
Tommy Milone R 5.63
Alex Cobb R 5.19
Wade LeBlanc L 5.69
Asher Wojciechowski R 5.76
John Means L 5.29

Means was a pleasant surprise last season, earning an All-Star spot and finishing second in AL Rookie of the Year voting. The 27-year-old is the only starter that is likely in the long-term future for the club. Cobb is coming off an injury-shortened season and is owed $15 million in 2021 before his deal expires. If he's able to turn things around, expect the Orioles to try to trade him away in order to salvage something in what's otherwise been a disappointing signing. Baltimore had the worst pitching staff in the majors last season and should expect more of the same this year.

Bullpen

Pitcher Throws Proj. ERA
Mychal Givens R 4.04
Richard Bleier L 4.41
Hunter Harvey R 4.54
Miguel Castro R 4.82
Shawn Armstrong R 4.92
Paul Fry L 4.32
Tanner Scott L 3.74
Dillon Tate R 4.70
Cody Carroll R 5.00
David Hess R 5.51
Kohl Stewart R 5.38

It's no surprise the Orioles had the league's worst bullpen ERA last season and only converted 50% of save opportunities. Baltimore relievers issued a league-worst 126 home runs over 654 innings, while also walking the fifth-most batters. Givens and Castro are the most intriguing arms of the group. Givens is coming off a career-high 12.3 K/9 and is likely trade bait, while Castro has the stuff to be a closer but has struggled with his command, posting a 5.9 BB/9 over the last two seasons.

Key injuries/Absences

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Player Position Absence
Trey Mancini OF Colon cancer
Richie Martin SS Broken wrist
Dwight Smith Jr. OF COVID-19
Stevie Wilkerson IF/OF Fractured finger

(Projected WAR/ERA source: FanGraphs)

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