2020 Blue Jays season preview: Can young core contend?

The Toronto Blue Jays enter the season with plenty of optimism and look to be a team on the rise in the American League.

Armed with a bevy of young stars - and more coming down the pipeline - Toronto appears to be a year away from contending for a postseason spot. That could change depending on the play of the team's ascendant core, but the Blue Jays are always in tough as members of the AL East, and the pandemic-altered schedule will be especially challenging with Toronto only facing clubs from its own division and the NL East.

Complicating matters even further is the fact the team still hasn't found a home ballpark for 2020. After the club's request to play in Toronto was denied by the Canadian government, the Blue Jays looked set to play at Pittsburgh's PNC Park, but the state of Pennsylvania wouldn't grant them permission. The adversity could either bring this group together or simply prove too challenging to overcome.

The Blue Jays are poised for a bright future, but they still have a number of holes to address before they can take the next step. Though the team overhauled its pitching staff in the winter, the unit still projects to be in the bottom third of the league. The outfield, meanwhile, remains an issue both offensively and defensively, and it lacks a true center fielder. The club could look to address these problems through free agency this coming offseason, or by trading assets from a strong minor-league system.

2020 Breakdown

2019 record: 67-95 (4th in AL East)
Payroll: $124,360,714
Projected record: 28-32 (4th)
World Series odds: +10000
3-year trend: 2017 (4th); 2018 (4th); 2019 (4th)
Key addition: Hyun-Jin Ryu
Key subtraction: Justin Smoak
Highest projected WAR: Bo Bichette (1.3)
X-factor: Tanner Roark
Prospect to watch: Nate Pearson
Winter report card: B+

Projected Lineup

Bench

*Bold indicates player acquired during offseason

Last year's preseason chatter surrounded Guerrero, but it was Bichette who stole the show in the majors and now looks to be on the verge of stardom at just 22 years old. Guerrero posted solid numbers, but he failed to live up to exceedingly lofty expectations and appeared to run out of gas down the stretch. A move across the diamond to first base should allow him to focus on his hitting.

Though the infield seems mostly set for years to come, question marks remain in the outfield. Toronto ranked 27th in outfield WAR last season and will feature a revolving door in right field this season. Grichuk, the club's highest-paid position player, hit a career-high 31 home runs in 2019, but he also posted a dismal .280 OBP with a career-worst 163 strikeouts. The entire lineup will need to cut down on strikeouts after last year's group whiffed in 24.9% of at-bats - the sixth-worst mark in MLB.

Rotation

The front office made the rotation a priority over the winter and added several veteran arms, highlighted by the surprise signing of Ryu. The 33-year-old left-hander gives the club a legitimate ace and a potential mentor for some of the younger starters. But the real excitement will come when top pitching prospect Nate Pearson makes his debut at some point this season. Even without Pearson to open the year, the Blue Jays' rotation should be vastly improved in 2020 after 21 different pitchers started at least one game last season.

Bullpen

The Blue Jays enter the season with most of the bullpen that ranked 15th in ERA, 16th in WHIP, 17th in K/9, and 18th in BB/9 in 2019. Not great, but not exactly a disaster either. Giles anchors the group and has established himself as one of baseball's elite closers, though whether or not he pitches the entire season with Toronto remains to be seen. The right-hander is set to become a free agent after the campaign, and the two sides are not close on an extension.

Key Injuries/Absences

(Projected WAR/ERA source: FanGraphs)