Best betting trends, angles for NFL championship weekend

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

And then there were four. All of the participants in this weekend's NFL conference championship games - the 49ers, Chiefs, Packers, and Titans - have been profitable bets against the spread during the season, but the teams' paths to this point differ greatly. Their histories on this stage differ, too, leaving some potential value on the table for bettors who play their spots right.

Here are five notable trends and angle plays for each team taking the field Sunday:

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 52)

Kansas City Chiefs

• Since Patrick Mahomes became the full-time starter in 2018, the Chiefs are 8-4 ATS and 11-1 straight up when giving at least a touchdown. They've covered seven of their last eight games in that spot.
• Since Week 7, the Chiefs are 8-1 ATS in Mahomes' starts. They're 6-3 to the under in those games, despite averaging 31.1 points per game.
• The Chiefs have won five straight ATS at home, but they've failed to cover in nine of their last 11 home playoff games.
• The under is 8-1 in playoff games in which Andy Reid's team is giving at least four points. His teams are 5-4 ATS and 7-2 SU in those contests.
• Since 2002, teams that score at least 40 points in a playoff game are 6-17 ATS (26.1%) in the next game. Teams coming off wins of 20 points or more are 14-20 ATS (41.2%) in that same stretch.

Tennessee Titans

• Since the Titans named Ryan Tannehill their starter in Week 7, they're 9-3 ATS and 9-3 to the over, averaging 29.3 points per game.
• During that 12-game stretch, the Titans went 5-1 ATS on the road with a +11.5 scoring differential and secured outright playoff wins at New England and Baltimore.
• Since Mike Vrabel took over as head coach in 2018, the Titans are 9-3 ATS when catching more than a field goal, with five ATS wins in their last six games.
• Since 2004, playoff teams that win consecutive games as underdogs are 9-3 ATS in the following game. Seven of those victories were outright.
• Games featuring a total of at least 51 and an underdog of at least seven points are 14-5-2 (73.7%) to the under since 2018. The underdog is 11-10 ATS and 5-16 SU in those games.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5, 45)

San Francisco 49ers

• Since Week 8, the 49ers are 8-3 to the over while averaging 31.8 points per game. They're 5-2 to the over with 33 points per contest as home favorites in that span.
• The 49ers are 5-18-2 ATS (21.7%) in their last 25 games as home favorites, though they've covered their last two home playoff games against the Packers (2012) and Vikings (2019).
• Head coach Kyle Shanahan is 1-4 ATS as a favorite of at least seven points. His lone win came last week against Minnesota (+7).
• When two teams with identical records meet in the playoffs, the over is 18-8 (69.2%) since 2002. Favored teams are 10-14-2 ATS (41.7%) over that stretch, managing a 1-3 ATS record when giving at least 6.5 points.
• Since 2002, teams that allow 10 or fewer points in a playoff win are 30-12-1 (71.4%) to the over in the following game, going 8-1 to the over dating back to 2014.

Green Bay Packers

• In his postseason career, Aaron Rodgers is 11-5-1 ATS (68.8%) and has covered six of his last seven games. He's 7-3 ATS on the road and 2-0 ATS - both outright losses - when catching at least a touchdown.
• In the regular season, Rodgers' teams are 3-10 ATS and 2-11 SU overall when catching at least 4.5 points. In the playoffs, they're 3-1 ATS and 1-3 SU in that spot.
• Rodgers is 2-6-1 ATS in his career against the 49ers, who famously passed on him in the 2005 NFL Draft. Two of those games (0-1-1 ATS/0-2 SU) came in the playoffs.
• The Packers went over in their win against Seattle, snapping a 7-0-1 under streak that began on Nov. 3. The under went 4-0-1 in Green Bay's road games during that stretch.
• Since 2002, playoff underdogs looking to avenge regular-season losses of at least 28 points in the same year are 6-1 ATS. Only two of those wins were outright.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.