NBA Wednesday trend plays: Heat trending 'over' as defense regresses

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The NBA slate for Wednesday is loaded with a total of 10 matchups. That means there's a ton of opportunities to find value. Here are the best betting angles for the evening.

Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics (-9.5, 214)

Detroit is entering Wednesday on a serious skid after going 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread in its last four games - all as a favorite. It won't get much easier in Boston. The Pistons have gone 1-10 ATS in their last 11 when playing after one day of rest and have covered just twice against the Celtics in their last seven meetings.

Trend play: Celtics -9.5

San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat (-5.5, 222.5)

All signs point to the over in this one, as Miami's recent defensive woes have been alarming. The latest chinks in the armor came during back-to-back losses in New York, where the Heat allowed an average of 120.5 points in defeats to the Knicks and Nets. Miami has gone over the total in 12 of its last 15 following an outright loss, in nine of its last 12 as a home favorite, and in 19 of its last 27 overall. Meanwhile, the Spurs have gone over the total in four of their last five as underdogs and in four of their previous five overall. In the last eight meetings between these two clubs, six totals have gone over.

Trend play: Over 222.5

Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls (-4.5, 227)

This matchup features one of the highest totals on the board. That's pretty standard for a Washington defense that ranks last in the league in points allowed per game. The Wizards have gone 6-1 to the over in their last seven games as road 'dogs and 14-6 in their last 20 contests following a straight-up loss. This matchup has also been very pointsy when played in Chicago, as 11 of the last 15 have gone over the total.

Trend play: Over 227

Charlotte Hornets at Denver Nuggets (-12.5, 211.5)

It's tempting to lay the chalk with the Nuggets in this spot, but they've often played down to their competition. Denver's gone a dreadful 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games against teams with a winning percentage below .400 and hasn't covered a home game against an opponent with a losing road record in its last six tries. Meanwhile, the Hornets have covered five of their last seven overall and four of their last five following an outright loss.

Trend play: Hornets +12.5

Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets (-8, 235.5)

Portland is running out of time to dig out of its early-season hole. The Trail Blazers have slumped to the tune of a 2-9-1 ATS mark in their last 12 and have covered just one of their last eight games as underdogs. On the other hand, the Rockets have gone a perfect 4-0 in their last four as home favorites.

Trend play: Rockets -8

Orlando Magic at Los Angeles Lakers (-10, 212)

Although the Magic's defense could be on the cusp of some regression - they're No. 1 in points allowed per game but No. 12 in opponent field-goal percentage - it's difficult to stray away from this total. Orlando's gone 12-2 to the under against teams with a winning record, 6-0 following a win, and 5-1 in its last six games overall. The under has also cashed in 14 of the last 16 meetings between these teams in L.A., where the Lakers have gone 38-15 to the under in their last 53 games as home favorites.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKoIodziej.