Skip to content

NFL playoffs: Texans at Chiefs odds, trends, and best bet

Peter Aiken / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.

The only rematch in this year's NFL divisional round comes Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Kansas City Chiefs look to avenge their Week 6 loss to the volatile Houston Texans.

Deshaun Watson helped engineer a 16-point comeback in the second half of last week's wild-card win over the Bills. Can he replicate that magic to beat Patrick Mahomes twice in the same season?

Odds

Chiefs -9.5, 51

Initially, the Chiefs opened as the second-biggest favorites of the weekend on an 8-point line. Bettors snatched up that number to push Sunday's line to -9.5, tied for the largest spread of the divisional round. The total is also on the move, crossing the 50-point mark from an opening 49 to 51 as of Thursday afternoon.

Betting trends

The last time Mahomes lost at home was that Week 6 duel with Watson, who erased a 17-3 first-quarter deficit to win by seven points. Outside of that game, Mahomes-led teams are 19-2 straight up when holding a lead after the first quarter and 15-5-1 against the spread - suggesting that these teams' first meeting was more of an anomaly than a harbinger.

Since that unlikely collapse, the Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in Mahomes' starts and 3-0 ATS as home favorites. They're in a strong spot to continue that success: Playoff teams giving at least 9.5 points are 14-7 ATS since the 2002 season with eight straight wins dating back to 2011.

Those 21 big favorites have scored 29.9 points per game, which is in line with Kansas City's average of 28.6 points in Mahomes' 14 starts this year. Playoff teams coming off a first-round bye have scored 30 points per game since 2016, with a 7-4-1 ATS record and 8-4 mark to the over.

The Texans have been road warriors this year with a 5-2 ATS record, including that Week 6 upset over the Chiefs. Still, Bill O'Brien is below .500 ATS in his career as a road underdog, and he's 16-25 ATS overall against teams with a winning record.

X-factor

We mentioned this as an X-factor ahead of last week's game, but it's so crucial that it bears repeating: The Texans' offense comes and goes as Will Fuller does.

Without Fuller last week, Houston eked out an ATS win but managed only 22 points despite the benefit of overtime. When Fuller plays at least five snaps this season, the Texans are 7-3 ATS with 25.7 points per game. When he doesn't, they're 2-5 ATS with 20.4 points per game.

In its last six games, the Chiefs' pass defense earned five of its seven best PFF grades on the season, and the team ranks sixth in DVOA pass defense. Kansas City is still dreadful against the run, but Houston likely won't be able to employ the same run-heavy script twice against Andy Reid.

If the Texans are without Fuller - or if he's ineffective in his first game back - it hamstrings the dynamic downfield passing threat that makes Watson's scrambling ability so dangerous. And if the Chiefs can exploit Houston's 27th-ranked defense per weighted DVOA, the Texans will have no choice but to rely on unheralded receivers to keep pace.

Best bet

Chiefs' team total over 30

Everything about this game screams over, with two dynamic quarterbacks and two inconsistent defenses with major holes. Yet the questions surrounding Fuller and the improvement of the Chiefs' secondary make Houston's offense a risky bet this weekend.

If you like Kansas City but aren't sure about the over, the team total is an easy call. When the total is at least 51, the winning team has averaged 32.9 points in the last 30 years. Mahomes should be much healthier than he was in these teams' first meeting, which could signal fireworks after an extra week of preparation for the Texans' defense.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

Daily Newsletter

Get the latest trending sports news daily in your inbox