NFL playoffs: Titans at Ravens odds, trends, and best bet
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When the Baltimore Ravens beat the New England Patriots in Week 9 of this season, it felt like a potential precursor to a classic playoff rematch. However, the Tennessee Titans ended any hopes of that happening when they pulled off the upset in Foxborough last weekend to set up Saturday's clash in Baltimore.
Next, the Titans are hoping to produce an all-time postseason upset. Will their momentum carry over to the divisional round, or will the No. 1 Ravens be too much to handle for the upstart sixth seed?
Odds
Ravens -9.5, 47
The Ravens opened as 10-point favorites, though the line has dropped to -9.5 as kickoff nears. It still represents a ton of respect from oddsmakers. Case in point: If the Titans win, it'll tie for the third-biggest playoff upset by point spread since the Patriots (+14) beat the Rams in the 2002 Super Bowl.
Meanwhile, both the Ravens and Titans have flown over their game totals this year, but bettors are expecting a lower-scoring contest on Saturday, knocking the early line down from 48 to 47.
Betting trends
Is any team hotter than these Titans? Since installing Ryan Tannehill as the starting quarterback in Week 6, Tennessee has gone 8-4 against the spread with the league's top second-half offense by DVOA. They are also the fourth-ranked team in weighted DVOA for the season - Baltimore is first - and rank fourth in PFF's team grades, one spot behind the Ravens.
Still, this could be a tough spot for the Titans, who are 2-3 ATS as 'dogs under Tannehill, even after last week's win in New England. Since the Patriots' epic upset over the Rams in 2002, playoff teams catching at least 9.5 points have gone 7-14 ATS with eight straight losses dating back to 2011.
Additionally, an outright upset win appears to be even more unlikely against John Harbaugh's Ravens, who've gone 45-4 straight up when giving at least a touchdown and 25-1 when favored by at least nine points. Of those 26 games, 17 went under the total, which could hint toward a conservative approach in Saturday's affair.
The Ravens' stellar offense has been the catalyst of the team's current 9-1 ATS stretch, but any run-based approach lends itself to the under, even in blowouts. Sure enough, Baltimore went 4-2-1 to the under to close out the year, while the under was 4-2 in games against this year's playoff field.
Scoring early could be crucial for the Titans, whose run game would benefit from a lead. This season, the Titans went 8-1 ATS and posted 30.3 points per game when they scored in the first quarter. When they didn't? In those contests, Tennessee went just 2-6 ATS with 18.6 points per game.
X-factor
It should come as no surprise that the ground game is likely to determine Saturday's outcome between two of the three best rushing offenses in the league.
Baltimore ran for more yards this season than any other team in NFL history, and the offense featured two of the league's 15 leading rushers in Lamar Jackson (sixth) and Mark Ingram (14th) - both of whom averaged at least 5 yards per carry. Jackson also ranked first in play-action percentage (35%) among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts.
The Titans rank third in PFF's run-defense grades, which could force Baltimore to use the passing game more often. Ingram is also battling a calf injury, which could elevate backups Gus Edwards and Justice Hill into less familiar roles.
Tennessee's Derrick Henry, the NFL's leading rusher in 2019, single-handedly vanquished the Patriots last week with a franchise-record 204 scrimmage yards. His breakout season has coincided with his success on outside-zone and toss plays, from which he's amassed 804 yards and seven touchdowns on just 126 attempts (6.4 yards per carry), according to Brett Kollmann of "The Film Room."
Without a head of steam, though, Henry isn't the same back, and he could struggle to find room this weekend. The Ravens were mediocre against the run overall this season, but they stuffed outsize-zone and toss plays to the tune of 3.7 yards per carry with just eight broken tackles on 77 attempts, per Kollmann. If not for a 41-yard run by the Texans in garbage time, Baltimore would have allowed just 3.2 yards per play on those attempts.
The 49ers and Browns found ways to attack the Ravens on the outside in their matchups this season, but Baltimore's defense has mostly contained the edge against run-heavy teams. Success in that area would all but stifle Tennessee's attack. Conversely, the Ravens' elite offense would lose its luster if the Titans' front can limit the damage on the ground.
Best bet
Titans team total under 19
Bettors have been onto something by fading the total for Saturday's game: Both of these squads feature run-first offenses, and both of their defenses are well-suited to halt the other team's rushing attack.
The difference, though, is that Jackson is better equipped to create plays on his own if things fall apart. Tannehill's success has been predicated on having extra time in the pocket with the benefit of an elite run game. If Henry isn't finding the same room against Baltimore, it could be a long day for Tennessee's offense, which generated just 14 points last weekend, even with Henry's record performance.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.