NFL playoffs: Seahawks at Packers odds, trends, and best bet
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A pair of Super Bowl champions and two of the league's premier quarterbacks will share the field Sunday when Russell Wilson leads the Seattle Seahawks against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.
It will be the eighth all-time meeting between the two quarterbacks, but only their first playoff matchup at historic Lambeau Field.
Odds
Packers -4, 47
After opening as 3.5-point favorites, the Packers have been bet up to -4 across the board and continue to climb - they're already at -4.5 in some spots. Sharp money is backing Green Bay with the public largely on the Seahawks, who are always a popular underdog play. The total has ticked up just half a point from a 46.5 open.
Betting trends
The Seahawks gave up 7.0 yards per pass attempt in 2019. In their wild-card matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles, they allowed a 40-year-old Josh McCown to complete 75% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt while essentially throwing to two tight ends and a running back. They now face Rodgers.
Seattle also ranked 27th defensively this season, allowing 5.9 yards per play and 4.8 yards per rush. The Seahawks must now handle Aaron Jones, who averaged a whopping 5.7 yards per carry over the final month of the regular season.
The Packers were 9-0 straight up this season (7-2 against the spread) when Jones rushed for at least 50 yards, and they averaged 27.3 points per game when Jones tallied over 80 total yards rushing and receiving. He should feature heavily against a Seahawks defense that just allowed Eagles backs to rack up 125 total yards in a one-dimensional offense that didn't feature Rodgers under center.
But, as has so often been the case throughout this season and his career, Wilson can act as the great equalizer. His ability to make plays and keep the Seahawks in games is what makes Seattle so dangerous on any given day. Wilson is 23-11-3 (67.6%) ATS in his career as an underdog and 17-19-1 SU. He's 0-4 SU on the road in the postseason when getting points, however, and 1-2-1 ATS in those games. He's also never won in his career at Lambeau and is 0-3 ATS in Green Bay.
For Rodgers, this will be the first home playoff game since 2017 and just the sixth overall in his 12 seasons as a starter. He's 3-2 SU at Lambeau Field in the postseason and 2-2-1 ATS (2-2 when the Packers are favorites).
X-factor
DK Metcalf has emerged as Wilson's premier passing target and should feature prominently again Sunday. But in a contest that could very well turn into a shootout, the Seahawks need someone else to step up in the passing game.
That guy needs to be Tyler Lockett, who has gone eerily quiet in the latter portion of the campaign. After averaging 6.6 catches and 85.2 yards per game over the first nine weeks of the regular season, he's managed just 3.4 catches and 44 yards per game in eight contests since.
With Green Bay unlikely to struggle in putting up points, Seattle needs Lockett to have a big game against a strong Packers secondary and take some of the focus off of the rookie Metcalf.
Best bet
Over 47
It's hard to envision the Packers' offense stumbling against a below-average Seattle defense, and the Seahawks' offensive strengths should help them exploit a Green Bay defense that gave up 4.7 yards per carry this season (27th in the league).
Both teams should be able to run the ball effectively, and both quarterbacks possess the ability to evade pass rushes and extend plays, which will result in some big downfield action. The over is 4-0 when the Seahawks are road underdogs in the playoffs with Wilson under center, and that trend should continue in this spot.
Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.