College football Week 9 over/under best bets
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Every week during the college football season, we'll cover our five best over/under bets. Let's take a look at Week 9.
Colorado State at Fresno State
Total: 55.5
I'm probably on an island here, but after watching Fresno State play UNLV last week, I think the Bulldogs are one of the more underrated over teams in college football. The market drove their Week 8 total down from 55 to 52.5, and the end result was a 56-27 win for Fresno. Yet again, the public's pushed this week's total down, this time from the opener of 59 to 55.5. I politely disagree.
Fresno had to replace a ton of its defensive production from last season and there are definitely leaks in a unit that's allowed close to 30 points per game in 2019. The Bulldogs have gone over the total in four of their six games this season, with another missing by a half-point. I don't necessarily trust a so-so defense against Colorado State quarterback Patrick O'Brien, who's averaging close to 10 yards per air attempt this season.
Meanwhile, Colorado State has trended under for the last three weeks after going over the total in three of the first four. The Rams' defense is No. 11 in the country in pass yards allowed per game, but that's easy when you play running teams such as Air Force, New Mexico, and Toledo, as well as Utah State in the pouring rain. Bulldogs quarterback Jorge Reyna seems well-equipped to succeed in a shootout, and I think one is brewing in Fresno on Saturday.
Pick: Over
South Carolina at Tennessee
Total: 47.5
I highlighted Tennessee's offensive woes as a reason why the under at Alabama last weekend was a decent look. Despite the low number at home against South Carolina this Saturday, I think it's ideal to go that direction again. The Volunteers have some skill offensively, but their game-planning and scheme have been extremely stale this season. There's also some rumored quarterback controversy, with first- and second-stringers Brian Maurer and Jarrett Guarantano both potentially unavailable. South Carolina's averaging just 4.6 yards per play this season, so don't expect too many fireworks in Knoxville.
Pick: Under
Notre Dame at Michigan
Total: 51
Notre Dame against any pass-happy offense is a good recipe for an over. The Wolverines could have fit that bill if they lived up to their preseason expectations of airing it out. Instead, it's been more of the same under head coach Jim Harbaugh: establish the run and take frequent deep shots off play-action. It's amazing that Michigan has gone over the total five times this season without transforming the offense. And while the defense has been spotty at times, this is probably the game where defensive coordinator Don Brown schemes up a gem. After the Wolverines gave up 21 early points to Penn State and four touchdowns overall in a loss last weekend, I think the patented Michigan defense will come to play Saturday.
Pick: Under
Western Kentucky at Marshall
Total: 45
If this game was played just a few seasons ago, we'd probably see a total in the mid-70s. The C-USA has become very defensive-minded overall in recent years, and Western Kentucky and Marshall have experienced two of the more drastic changes in style and personnel. The Hilltoppers were one of the most efficient offenses when current head coach Tyson Helton was the quarterbacks coach in 2014-15. I'm sure he'd like to go fast and sling the ball around again, but he doesn't have the right pieces. The Hilltoppers are averaging fewer than 70 plays per game and have been held to three touchdowns or fewer in five of their seven contests so far.
As for Marshall, recent injuries on offense have hindered their efficiency. It's a miracle that the Thundering Herd put up 36 points on FAU last weekend despite essentially trotting out three tight ends as wide receivers. It's not a large total, but the offenses figure to struggle Saturday.
Pick: Under
Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Total: 64.5
What school has more yards per play than Ohio State, Washington State, Clemson, Central Florida, and Oregon, and is right behind LSU nationally? That'd be Iowa State, which is slowly gelling to the tune of 40.3 points per game over the last three. The Cyclones are rolling, and now they're back at home against an Oklahoma State defense allowing 6.1 yards per play and 30 points per game. They should have their way and force Oklahoma State into plenty of passing situations.
Let the track meet commence.
Pick: Over
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.