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CFB Week 7 early lines overreaction: Texas, Florida big underdogs

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Each week we'll break down the opening lines for the biggest college football games on the card, looking at where the early money is going and how the spread may move leading up to kickoff.

Texas vs. Oklahoma

Opening line: Oklahoma -10.5

This year's edition of the Red River Rivalry could be one of the biggest movers on the board. Oklahoma hit the market as 10.5-point chalk but has been bet down to a key number at -10. The Sooners face their first real test of the year against Texas, which is coming off back-to-back wins against Big 12 teams with winning records.

Oklahoma has won seven of the last 10 meetings outright, but the Longhorns have been ATS warriors in this rivalry, covering six straight before last year's 12-point loss as 9-point 'dogs. Texas has also come within a point or half-point of covering all five of its games this season.

This contest between a pair of public powerhouses will likely see solid two-way action, but grab Texas soon if you like the home team. Early money suggests incoming action on the Longhorns and head coach Tom Herman, who's 12-3 ATS in his career as an underdog and 3-1 ATS versus Oklahoma.

Florida at LSU

Opening line: LSU -14.5

Sharps loved Florida in last week's top-10 win over Auburn, and they're again hammering the Gators getting two touchdowns on the road. LSU opened as a 14.5-point favorite at home after obliterating Utah State last week, but early action forced the line down to -13 as of early Monday.

This line should continue to move in favor of the Gators, who were just 4.5-point underdogs when the Game of the Year lines were posted this summer. The Tigers' offense has been exceptional but hasn't faced a defensive unit as stiff as Florida's, which ranks 11th in ESPN's FPI ratings. According to those same ratings, LSU is only 6.4 points better than Florida on a neutral field.

Still, don't doubt Ed Orgeron in a revenge spot after last year's upset loss in Gainesville. Since taking over at LSU, Orgeron is 9-3 ATS in all revenge games and 8-1 ATS in revenge games against teams not named Alabama.

Penn State at Iowa

Opening line: Penn State -2.5

Iowa's undefeated dream came to an end with last week's loss to an inconsistent Michigan team in the Big House. Kirk Ferentz's crew now returns to Iowa with a chance to reassert Big Ten legitimacy as a home 'dog against Penn State.

The early public action is on the Nittany Lions, which shouldn't come as a surprise after two blowout wins in as many weeks. Even with public support, Penn State might actually be a bit underrated after failing to cover as a big favorite against Pittsburgh in Week 3; the Nittany Lions profile as a top-10 team in ESPN metrics and boast a top-10 defense, according to Football Outsiders.

Penn State's only problem: Iowa's defense might actually be better. The Hawkeyes have held their first five opponents to a combined 44 points, capped off by Michigan's 10-point effort last week. Since James Franklin took over in 2014, Penn State is 0-15-1 ATS against Big Ten teams when scoring 21 points or fewer and 22-5-3 ATS otherwise.

The Hawkeyes are being dealt at +3, which is also where the line will likely settle closer to kickoff. This could be a solid value spot to buy an Iowa team coming off an aesthetically displeasing loss. Since 2007, Ferentz is 30-18-3 ATS coming off losses and 9-4-1 ATS as a home 'dog, with two ATS wins against favored Penn State.

USC at Notre Dame

Opening line: Notre Dame -10.5

Notre Dame opened as a 10.5-point favorite and bettors are already riding the home team. This line could climb quickly during the week, especially if USC quarterback Kedon Slovis can't make the trip to South Bend.

The Trojans were already thin after starter JT Daniels went down in the season opener. Slovis filled in nicely but suffered an injury two weeks ago against Utah, thrusting third-stringer Matt Fink into action. The junior performed well in that win over the Utes but came down to earth against a swarming Washington defense.

The Fighting Irish have a better defense than the Huskies, while the Trojans' defense hasn't held an opponent below 20 points all season. This could be a bloodbath for USC coach Clay Helton, who's 1-9 ATS as a road 'dog with an 0-2 record against Notre Dame. In a matchup of two very public teams, expect the Irish to see the money this week.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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