Monday Night Football betting preview: Browns at 49ers
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The Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers were among the biggest public darlings heading into the 2019 season. Injuries seemingly ravaged San Fran in the preseason, while an inconsistent first month had Browns bettors jumping off the bandwagon.
Both sides are back in bettors' good graces entering Monday. The Niners are 3-0 and coming off a much-needed early bye week, while Cleveland is fresh off a road thrashing of divisional rival Baltimore in its best showing this season. Oddsmakers see little difference between the two teams, and bettors are mostly split heading into arguably the best Monday night matchup thus far.
Here's everything you need to know about the Week 5 contest from a betting perspective:
Line movement
The 49ers opened as four-point favorites and are sitting at that same price at theScore Bet in New Jersey as of Sunday with close to 60% of bettors backing the road underdog, according to Sports Insights. The total is at 46.5, a half-point down from the opening number of 47.
Betting trends
Bettors may be eyeing the 49ers here off a bye week, but the trends don't favor this spot. Home favorites coming off a bye are 24-30-3 against the spread (44.4%) since 2013 and are on a 3-9-2 ATS run over their last 14. Those teams are also 17-26 ATS (39.5%) when giving more than a field goal.
San Francisco is also 1-14-2 ATS (6.7%) in its last 17 as home chalk, with a 1-4-1 record under head coach Kyle Shanahan. He's 0-2 ATS when giving more than three points, though his teams won both games straight up.
The Freddie Kitchens era has gotten off to an uneven start this year; will last week's drubbing of Baltimore serve as a turning point or an emotional drain? Since 2017, road 'dogs who scored at least 40 points in their last game are 10-2 ATS (83.3%) in their next contest. Conversely, teams coming off two-touchdown wins as road 'dogs are 3-8 ATS (27.3%) in their next game with a 10-1 run to the under.
The under may have the best value here with two defenses ranked in the top eight of DVOA efficiency ratings. Solid offensive showings last week are also signals for regression. This season, games featuring two teams that scored at least 21 points during the previous week are 24-8 (75%) to the under.
The X-factor
The Niners' offense has thrived on a steady diet of outside runs and play-action, but star edge rusher Myles Garrett could complicate that Monday. Sixth-round rookie Justin Skule made his first start in Week 3 filling in for injured veteran Joe Staley, and he'll have his hands full with Garrett, who's made a living terrorizing tackles off the defensive right side.
Garrett has generated 14 pressures on his 65 pass rushes from the right side this season, per Pro Football Focus, including four sacks and three quarterback hits. His PFF "pass-rushing productivity" on the right side - which measures all pressures, not just sacks - is the best of any player with at least 25 pass rushes from that side. Skule has played 100% of his snaps at left tackle, opposite the defensive right side, so a typical effort from Garrett could wreck San Fran's plans offensively.
Pick
Neither team is firmly in contender circles, though either could prove otherwise with a strong showing Monday. The 49ers have feasted on mediocre teams and somewhat fluky circumstances, and Cleveland is probably the better club. Still, do you trust the Browns to string together two good games in a row?
Instead, hit the under here. Each team has put up gaudy yet empty stats against tattered defenses and, on the other side of the ball, each club is chock full of talent on the edge and in the secondary. Both teams would be wise to ride their stellar running games, helping under bettors cash in what should be a close game.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.