NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: Daniel Jones moves from 20-1 to 7-1
The Daniel Jones era is upon us, and oddsmakers dramatically shortened the quarterback's Offensive Rookie of the Year odds ahead of Sunday's anticipated debut.
The New York Giants announced Tuesday that Jones would make his first career start in Week 3 - slashing his odds to 7-1 to bring home the award before taking a snap. He's now tied for the fourth-shortest odds behind Kyler Murray (17-10), Josh Jacobs (11-2), and David Montgomery (6-1).
Jones entered the season at 20-1, in part because of the Giants' explicit plan to bench him all year behind longtime starter Eli Manning. But after two blowout losses - during which Manning posted a career-low QBR (37.3) - plans changed, and the rookie will get his chance this week against a Tampa Bay defense that is allowing an average of 235.5 passing yards after facing Jimmy Garoppolo and a hobbled Cam Newton.
As a prospect coming out of Duke, Jones was panned for his mediocre record and poor decision-making, though the 6-foot-5 passer flashed traits of a prototypical quarterback with his strong arm and mobility in the pocket. "Danny Dimes" showed more of the latter through an exceptional preseason, finishing 29-of-34 for 416 yards and two touchdowns and helping the Giants to a 4-0 record straight up and against the spread.
This year's late start could hurt Jones' chances to win OROY, and he's lucky the Giants didn't wait longer. Since Dennis Shaw became the first quarterback to win the award in 1970, no QB has started fewer than 13 games and won it. Of the five QB winners in the last 11 seasons, all started at least 15 games:
| YEAR | PLAYER | STARTS | RECORD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Dak Prescott | 16 | 13-3 |
| 2012 | Robert Griffin III | 15 | 9-6 |
| 2011 | Cam Newton | 16 | 6-10 |
| 2010 | Sam Bradford | 16 | 7-9 |
| 2008 | Matt Ryan | 16 | 11-5 |
| 2006 | Vince Young | 13 | 8-5 |
| 2004 | Ben Roethlisberger | 13 | 13-0 |
| 1970 | Dennis Shaw | 12 | 3-8-1 |
The most apt comparison to Jones' situation might be from a year ago, when Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield made his first start in Week 3. Despite a historic statistical season for a rookie quarterback, Mayfield lost out to New York running back Saquon Barkley, whose pass-catching ability will likely bolster Jones' candidacy.
The Giants have the worst defense in the NFL through two games, per Pro Football Focus, so Jones should have plenty of opportunities to pad his stats. To win the award, though, he'll likely need to shake his losing reputation and show he's a marked upgrade over Manning - whom oddsmakers considered the least valuable starter to the spread ahead of Week 1. No quarterback since Shaw has taken home the award after winning fewer than six games.
Among this year's quarterback crop, the better bet looks like Murray at short odds or even a long shot on Jaguars starter Gardner Minshew (17-1), who started his career in record-breaking fashion replacing injured Nick Foles. Maybe it's the year of the receiver, with Marquise "Hollywood" Brown (7-1) and Terry McLaurin (29-1) ranking among the career leaders in receiving yards through a player's first two starts.
If Jones is the player he looked like in the preseason, and the Giants' supporting cast can step up, he's worth the shot at 7-1. The time to buy would be now: The Buccaneers (Week 3) and Redskins (Week 4) both rank below average in PFF's pass-rush and coverage grades through two weeks.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.