NFL Week 3: Teams to buy, sell
Each week during the NFL season, we'll break down which teams you should be buying and selling based on betting-market value (with Super Bowl odds listed).
Last week, we told you to buy early on the Patriots and Colts while selling the overpriced Steelers. Here are our market impressions ahead of Week 3:
Buy
New Orleans Saints (20-1)
Yes, Drew Brees is reportedly out approximately six weeks with a thumb injury. Yes, the Saints looked listless without him in Sunday's 27-9 loss to the Rams. Do either really matter for New Orleans' Super Bowl chances?
There's a reason the Saints shelled out the most money for any backup in the NFL when inking Teddy Bridgewater to a deal this summer. But even if New Orleans flops with Bridgewater at the helm, it'll say little about the team's chances once Brees returns.
Raise your hand if you think the Saints will miss the playoffs because of Brees' absence. If you don't, the Super Bowl value here on one of the NFL's top five teams is alluring. Just don't go crazy on the team's odds to win the division, with potential losses against Seattle and Dallas looming.
Tennessee Titans (100-1)
Offense doomed Tennessee in Sunday's loss to the Colts, even with Adam Vinatieri trying his best to give the game away. Yet the Titans' stellar defensive performance means the team is worth eyeing at long-shot odds.
For the second straight week, Dean Pees' defense held its opponent to fewer than 20 points. After coaxing Baker Mayfield into three picks in Week 1, Tennessee held Jacoby Brissett to under 150 yards and limited resurgent back Marlon Mack to just 51 yards on 20 carries.
Marcus Mariota needs to show more for the Titans to truly emerge as title contenders. But the AFC South is up for grabs, and Sunday's result doesn't suggest Tennessee is far off from the other three teams in its division.
Arizona Cardinals (300-1)
If nothing else, we can confidently say the Cardinals are in a different tier than the Dolphins, with whom Arizona was lumped entering the year. After Baltimore trounced Miami in Week 1, the Cardinals held the Ravens to 23 points and nearly engineered a heroic comeback for the second straight week behind Kyler Murray's impressive outing.
After the Lions stifled the Chargers, it's worth reconsidering the merits of last week's tie with Detroit, too. For all of the Cardinals' O-line woes - they've allowed eight sacks in three games - Murray is still moving the ball with ease, and 36-year-old Larry Fitzgerald looks like a legitimate WR1 for his young QB.
Nobody in their right mind is buying Arizona futures stock, for the Super Bowl or the division, but the Cardinals are worth a week-to-week play after their 2-0 start against the spread.
Sell
San Francisco 49ers (20-1)
What Kyle Shanahan's group has done through two weeks on the road is impressive. The Niners' defense shined in Week 1, forcing four turnovers with two pick-6s against Tampa Bay, while the run game gashed Cincinnati for 259 yards in a Week 2 win.
But 20-1? We're talking about two wins against the Bucs (100-1) and Bengals (1,000-1), two of the worst teams in the league. Bettors who bought big on San Fran this offseason surely want this to be a harbinger, but we haven't learned anything through two weeks beyond that the 49ers don't belong in the NFL's lowest tier.
The Saints, Vikings, Ravens, and Seahawks are all priced at 20-1, and they're all significantly better Super Bowl bets. San Francisco might make the playoffs, but any talk of title contention should end there.
Chicago Bears (25-1)
The Bears should probably be 0-2 after getting bailed out by a horrific penalty to set up a game-winning 53-yard field goal in Sunday's 19-17 win in Denver as 2-point favorites. Yet oddsmakers are still dealing 25-1 odds on last year's surprise Super Bowl contenders.
This isn't the same team as that one. Despite two impressive box scores defensively, the Bears' defense ranks a touch above average in Pro Football Focus' team grades, while their offense is dead last after scoring one touchdown through the first two weeks.
Mitchell Trubisky has clearly not made the jump many MVP bettors expected in the offseason, and the defense isn't otherworldly enough to carry him this year. Don't fall for the short odds.
Houston Texans (30-1)
The Texans have been held back by an incompetent offensive line for Deshaun Watson's entire career. It appears little has changed this year, even with the addition of tackle Laremy Tunsil a week before the season began.
Carolina was missing star pass-rusher Yannick Ngakoue but still got to Watson four times Sunday, which came a week after Houston allowed six sacks against New Orleans. The Texans' O-line ranks a pedestrian 22nd in pass-blocking grades through two weeks, which hampers this offense's ceiling and puts Watson at further risk of injury.
A shaky passing game would be tolerable if Houston's 32nd-ranked defense wasn't so vulnerable each week. This division is wide-open, but that doesn't mean it's worth paying shorter than 40-1 for a seriously flawed "favorite."
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.