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Monday Night Football betting preview: Browns at Jets

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The case of mononucleosis heard around the world has turned the New York Jets from frisky home underdogs to massive long shots against the talented but unproven Cleveland Browns on Monday Night Football.

With Sam Darnold out and Le'Veon Bell nursing a shoulder injury, the pressure falls on fill-in quarterback Trevor Siemian in a situation he's faced just once during his five-year career. He's up against a hungry Browns team hoping to avoid a disastrous 0-2 start as a Super Bowl hopeful.

Here's everything you need to know about the game from a betting perspective:

Line movement

The Browns opened as -2.5 favorites at most books before the shocking news that Darnold will miss Monday's game with mononucleosis. Books then re-installed Cleveland at -6.5, and bettors have pounced on the Browns.

With most public bettors waiting until Monday to wager on this contest, the line could reach the key number of seven.

Betting trends

This game starts and ends with Siemian, who's making his first appearance since 2017 after starting 24 games for the Broncos over a two-year stretch. He also played nearly the full game against Oakland in 2017 despite not getting the start.

In those 25 games, Siemian posted a competent 12-12-1 record against the spread, and he's 3-1 ATS as a home dog. Only one of those outings came while getting more than four points, though, and that was a 29-19 road loss as a 7.5-point dog.

With new coaches on both sides, not much can be gleaned from either club's history in this spot. For what it's worth, Jets head coach Adam Gase went 7-4-1 ATS as a dog with the Dolphins, including 4-1 ATS when getting more than a field goal.

New York's sudden quarterback change is certainly inopportune, but the major line adjustment might be too heavy in favor of an inconsistent Browns team. Only three squads over the past 30 years have given more than six points on the road after losing by 30-plus points the week before.

The X-factor

Siemian's surprise start and Cleveland's offensive woes could spell under in this spot. Road teams favored by at least 4.5 points after a loss are 25-8-2 to the under since 2015. Meanwhile, home dogs in the same spot are 56-27-2.

The Jets' offense will likely experience some growing pains, while the Browns should simplify their offense after a penalty-filled opener, leading to a run-heavy game and both teams relying on talented defenses.

Pick

There are simply too many variables here to confidently play either side of the 6.5 line. The Jets' offense could be a disaster, and the Browns are ill-equipped to run up the score in an unfavorable spot for hefty road favorites.

Instead, eye the under here. A game with two loaded defenses and questions offensively - albeit more on New York's side - won't make for great prime-time television, but it should bode well for shorting the total of 44.

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.

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