Monday Night Football betting preview: Texans at Saints
The opening weekend of the NFL season finishes up with a Monday Night Football doubleheader. Two teams expected to compete for playoff berths clash in the first game, with the Houston Texans visiting the Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints are again near the top of the oddsboard to win the Super Bowl after barely missing out on representing the NFC last season. Meanwhile, the Texans are clearly in win-now mode after trading away a plethora of draft picks this offseason for running back Duke Johnson, left tackle Laremy Tunsil, and wideout Kenny Stills.
Line Movement
The line for this game hasn't moved much since it was released three months ago, but there's some money coming in on the underdog Texans.
New Orleans opened at -7.5, but the Saints were quickly bet down to -7. A few books have moved off the key number of 7 to 6.5. But as of Sunday, most still listed the Saints at -7, including theScoreBet in New Jersey.
The total opened at 53.5 and is down to 52 at some shops, with sharp money backing the under. The public will certainly be betting the over on Monday night in a game featuring two of the NFL's top offenses.
Betting Trends
Drew Brees and his dynamic offense should feast on a Texans secondary that finished 28th against the pass last season and could be even worse this year.
The Saints were 7-1 in 2018 against bottom-10 pass defenses. We all remember what Brees did last year in New Orleans on Monday night against a Washington Redskins defense that ranked top 15 against the pass, right? He piled up 363 yards and three touchdowns.
Houston struggles away from home against good teams, which is a disturbing trend. The Texans are 1-13 on the road over the last three seasons against teams that finish with winning records, a category the Saints have lived in since Sean Payton and Brees arrived in 2006.
The Texans have also won just two prime-time road games - both at Cincinnati - since Bill O'Brien become their head coach in 2014, and they're 2-5 overall on MNF. Payton and Brees are 17-3 at home in prime-time games since 2009.
While the Saints have traditionally been strong at the Superdome under Payton, they've failed to deliver for bettors recently. New Orleans is 0-4 against the spread in its last four games, losing two outright.
The X-factor
One thing to watch for in this game is the Saints' focus. A 2019 NFC Championship Game rematch against the Los Angeles Rams looms next week. Bettors can sometimes overblow a fear of a team looking ahead, but the loss to the Rams was an emotional one for the Saints, and they could be eyeing their Week 2 opponent.
New Orleans has also stumbled out of the gate in recent years, going 0-5 straight up and ATS in its last five openers.
Pick
According to Sports Insights, the bets on this game are close to 50-50, which is surprising because the favorite typically gets most of the backing for a Monday night game.
The line hasn't moved much over the summer, which indicates the number is right on. The better play here could be the over on 52. The Texans' dismal pass defense will struggle with the Saints' balanced offense on the road. Expect Brees and Deshaun Watson to deliver in prime time during what should be an entertaining and high-scoring game.
Thomas Casale is theScore's Supervising Editor of Sports Betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.