Opening Day overreactions for every MLB team
The euphoria of Opening Day is here, and while nothing much can be truly gleaned from the first contests of a 162-game season, small samples are just too damn tempting to ignore.
Research tells us small samples mean very little and that all players will regress to the mean - whether it's the swelling of an OPS that is simply too low or the shrinking of an ERA that is just too high to be sustainable (even for the Baltimore Orioles).
But what if this is the year that small samples actually do matter? What if we made full-season extrapolations for every team based on Opening Day performances and we were actually right? What if 2019 is about to become the most predictable season ever played?
Let's react to every team's season opener and ignore the fact that these predictions are, in fact, unbelievably outlandish:
Arizona Diamondbacks: The highest single-season ERA since the beginning of the 20th century currently belongs to Les Sweetland, who posted a 7.71 mark over 167 innings back in 1930. Well, a challenger approaches, as Zack Greinke got absolutely shelled by the Dodgers, allowing four homers over 3 2/3 innings before leaving the contest with a 17.18 ERA.
Atlanta Braves: Ender Inciarte batting in the top four of this potent lineup is truly puzzling, especially after the outfielder went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in the leadoff spot on Opening Day. Among players with at least 250 plate appearances in the leadoff spot last year, Inciarte owned the worst on-base percentage in baseball (.292). By all accounts, he's a fine hitter, but what if we're seeing the worst leadoff season of all time?
Baltimore Orioles: If there's a team that can go 0-162, it's the Orioles, and they did nothing to assuage that thought in their opening game against the Yankees. The 1899 Cleveland Spiders (20-134) will be off the hook shortly.
Boston Red Sox: After the first game of the season, there's no way around it: the Red Sox are feeling the hangover, allowing a dozen runs to the "reimagined" Mariners. Can Boston bounce back from allowing 12 runs on Opening Day to win the World Series, something no team has ever done?
Chicago Cubs: Moving Javy Baez to shortstop was just what the Cubs needed all along; the middle infielder absolutely tattooed two balls into the seats for his first two hits and homers of the year. Jesse Chavez came on specifically to face him - and Baez still took him deep. The 2018 NL MVP runner-up is bound to win it this year.
Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada just needed to move to third base to live up to the No. 1 prospect hype. The 23-year-old went 1-for-3 with a walk and made some incredible plays at the hot corner too.
Cincinnati Reds: With top prospect Nick Senzel injured and in the minors, the Reds turned to (literal) reliever Michael Lorenzen to play center field and it wasn't even part of a Waxahachie Swap. Lorenzen played two full innings in center and didn't even get a trip to the plate in an eventual two-run game. The defensive alignment in Cincinnati will soon be entirely comprised of middle relievers.
Cleveland Indians: Pitching and run prevention will be crucial to Cleveland's success after the Indians mustered two hits against Jose Berrios and the division-rival Twins in a 2-0 loss. This team is somehow going to score fewer than 200 runs all year and still win the division.
Colorado Rockies: Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy, and Nolan Arenado - the top three hitters in Colorado's lineup who are collectively owed more than $300 million - went a combined 1-for-15. Meanwhile, Trevor Story and David Dahl - due roughly $6 million between them - went 4-for-7 with one walk and one homer. Team owners have written down the specifics of this game for future CBA negotiations.
Detroit Tigers: Jordan Zimmermann is an ace again. Carrying a perfect game into the seventh inning, the Tigers' right-hander is certainly bound for his third All-Star roster and might even garner Cy Young votes for the first time since 2014.
Houston Astros: Michael Brantley's elite contact abilities came in handy on Opening Day. The outfielder went 2-for-4 with a homer - but struck out once. He's on pace for 162 strikeouts, which would handily topple his previous career high of 76.
Kansas City Royals: What you need to know about the Royals is that their PR department apologized for the rain delay that prevented their game from starting on time and promised free admission to another game for any Opening Day ticket-holder. They can't control the weather - or how good their roster is - but they can certainly try to make sure butts are in the seats.
Los Angeles Angels: If Mike Trout hit a home run in every single one of his four trips to the plate on Thursday, the Angels would have won 5-4. Instead, they got shut out 4-0 by the A's. Based on the current Halos lineup, it's time to intentionally walk Trout in literally every single plate appearance and break Barry Bonds' record of 120 from 2004.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Enrique Hernandez has finally arrived. The utility man owns a 3.417 OPS, going 3-for-3 with a walk and two dingers on Opening Day. Can you say "best second baseman in baseball?"
Miami Marlins: Who needs J.T. Realmuto when you've got Jorge Alfaro? The new Marlins catcher is on pace for 162 opposite-field homers and will clearly be worth more WAR than the backstop for whom he was traded.
Milwaukee Brewers: Lorenzo Cain's remarkable game-sealing catch stole a home run from Jose Martinez as well as the Opening Day headlines. The Brewers center fielder - easily among the most likable players in the sport - can lock down 80 more home games in this fashion.
Minnesota Twins: Signed late in the winter, Marwin Gonzalez is now responsible for scoring 100 percent of the Twins' runs after hitting a bases-clearing double in the seventh. The utility man is also on pace for roughly 324 doubles, which would smash Earl Webb's record of 67 set back in 1931.
New York Mets: Brodie Van Wagenen absolutely fleeced the Mariners by acquiring Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz in exchange for Jarred Kelenic. Cano's first-inning homer proved to be the winning run and Diaz locked down the final frame for his first save in a Mets uniform.
New York Yankees: Move over Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and every other impossibly skilled slugger in the Yankees' lineup, because Luke Voit is the best hitter in the Bronx. With Judge and Stanton setting the table for the first baseman, the ex-Cardinal is bound to knock in 200 runs and break Hack Wilson's nearly century-old single-season record.
Oakland Athletics: Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada will go undefeated so long as they only pitch at home. The fly-ball aficionados got hit pretty hard at the home-run haven of the Tokyo Dome, but Fiers dealt six shutout innings on Opening Day, inducing six fly-ball outs while striking out two.
Philadelphia Phillies: Turns out the best outfielder the Phillies added this offseason was definitely Andrew McCutchen. The leadoff man did his chores, setting the table with a walk and tidying up with a home run to start his career with Philly. It feels like they added a couple of outfielders this winter, but I can't remember the other one at the moment.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Not a single player in the Pirates' lineup registered more than one hit as five different hitters combined for the team's five hits. Has any team ever gone an entire season without one player registering a multi-hit game? Let's find out.
San Diego Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. - not Manny Machado - is the best Padres player since Tony Gwynn. And, honestly, isn't Tatis a lock to topple Gwynn at this point too? The Hall of Fame outfielder recorded 65 wins above replacement over the remarkable 20-year career he began as a 22-year-old. Tatis has a two-year head start, earning the promotion at age 20.
San Francisco Giants: Good Madison Bumgarner is back but that, unfortunately, doesn't fix all the Giants' problems. The left-hander left Thursday's game with a sterling 2.57 ERA, getting saddled with the loss as San Francisco failed to muster a single run against the Padres. MadBum going 0-32 with a sub-3.00 ERA.
Seattle Mariners: Just hand the AL MVP award to Tim Beckham already. Dating back to the Japan Opening Series, the shortstop owns a 2.050 OPS and has three home runs on the season, two of which came off Chris Sale. How long until Beckham is intentionally walked with the bases loaded?
St. Louis Cardinals: The slugger the Cardinals tried to get in Paul Goldschmidt was on their roster this whole time: smooth-fielding second baseman Kolten Wong, who hit two key homers in the loss. Wong outslugs Goldschmidt for the remainder of the season? Fire it up.
Tampa Bay Rays: It didn't take long for the Rays to take the lead with a leadoff homer from Austin Meadows, but reigning Cy Young winner Blake Snell just couldn't contain the Astros' lineup. Jalen Beeks could, though. The lefty who came over from the Red Sox in the Nathan Eovaldi trade punched out five over three innings out of the 'pen. The 25-year-old will now go on to make zero starts for Tampa, qualify for the ERA title, and lead all of baseball with his 15 K/9.
Texas Rangers: Alert pitching-change hater Rob Manfred, as the Rangers will now top his list of pace-of-play violators. Texas made a total of six pitching changes on Opening Day, relying on four different pitchers for fewer than three outs. In fact, LOOGY Kyle Bird came in to face Anthony Rizzo, walked him on four pitches, and then immediately left the game. Manfred is fuming somewhere and is certain to make the entire city of Arlington a baseball-free zone.
Toronto Blue Jays: Look, the Baseball Gods have spoken. The Blue Jays won't score a run until they call up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The Jays had 10 innings to try and get a run off of the Tigers' pedestrian pitching staff, and they failed to muster a single hit until the seventh inning. Call up Vladdy, or be shut out for eternity.
Washington Nationals: Trea Turner will steal no fewer than 450 bases, breaking Rickey Henderson's single-season record by more than 300.