Fantasy: Can John Brown break out with the Bills?
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After a trade for star wideout Antonio Brown failed to materialize, Bills general manager Brandon Beane turned to the free-agent market in an effort to upgrade his receiving corps, one of the league's worst units.
And since a move to Buffalo doesn't inspire the same level of excitement that players feel about most NFL cities - a reality the Bills deal with every year in free agency - Beane was forced to dig deeper for help at the position.
Remember when the Rams and Bears rebuilt their receiving corps to help the development of their second-year quarterbacks, Jared Goff and Mitch Trubisky? Buffalo appears to be following that same model with the additions of an underrated deep threat in John Brown and a veteran slot receiver in Cole Beasley.
Brown's reportedly signing a three-year, $27-million deal, while Beasley's locked in for four years and $29 million. Together they'll join promising late-season star Robert Foster to form an intriguing trio designed to take advantage of quarterback Josh Allen's unique skill set.
Brown's a player I was very high on entering free agency, despite his numbers trailing off in the second half of 2018 when quarterback Lamar Jackson stepped into Baltimore's starting role.
Over his first seven games with the Ravens, Brown was the WR11 in standard formats and the WR16 in PPR leagues, with 86 yards and/or a touchdown in five of those contests. He was on pace for 1,275 yards and nine touchdowns, which would have been career highs, topping his 1,003-yard, seven-score sophomore season with the Cardinals in 2015.
Back then, Brown was seen as a potential breakout candidate before sickle cell issues sidetracked him. As we witnessed last season, he's now healthy and can be a top-25 receiver with the right opportunity.
But whether Buffalo can offer the setting for Brown to deliver on the great expectations once bestowed upon him remains to be seen.
On one hand, Allen's cartoonish arm strength seems ideal when paired with Brown's elite speed. The former led the league in average depth of target last season, with a league-high 28.2 percent of his pass attempts traveling 15-plus yards downfield, according to Rotoworld's Rich Hribar.
Unfortunately, Allen had one of the worst accuracy rates on deep passes, which you can find proof of at Pro Football Focus, AirYards.com, or really any website that provides quarterback stats.
Still, Foster's proof that Allen can support a viable fantasy star in this offense. The young receiver hit the 100-yard mark three times over his final seven games of 2018, resulting in WR2 fantasy numbers during the second half of the season.
Brown's arrival threatens Foster's production, though it's conceivable Brown and Beasley could simply assume the 41 percent target share that Zay Jones and Isaiah McKenzie owned from Week 10 onward last year.
During that stretch, both Foster and Jones finished in the top 13 for targeted air yards, a metric that Brown's also excelled in recently.
Even with his late-season struggles, Brown ended the 2018 campaign with the eighth-most targeted air yards behind Julio Jones, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Antonio Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Jarvis Landry. Brown was also third in targeted air yards in 2017 and 15th in 2016.
Meanwhile, we can project an uptick in pass attempts and efficiency for Allen entering his second year - something we saw both Goff and Trubisky display.
Buffalo isn't the destination fantasy owners were hoping for when considering Brown's potential landing spots, but the receiver remains a captivating fantasy asset with a very high ceiling and a slightly lower floor due to uncertainty within the Bills' offense.
Expect him to be an outstanding best-ball option while settling in as a WR3 in redraft leagues.
Instant impact
Josh Allen, QB, Bills
Allen showed legitimate fantasy chops by leading all quarterbacks in fantasy points over the final six weeks of the 2018 season. He'll enter Year 2 with better weapons and a full NFL offseason of preparation. His rushing production lifts his weekly floor and makes him one of the interesting late-round QBs in drafts this year. Pairing Allen with Jimmy Garoppolo, Jackson, or Trubisky is a recipe for success.
Robert Foster, WR, Bills
Foster's value is damaged by Brown's presence in the offense. This will be a depth chart that needs to be monitored throughout the offseason, but Brown is my early favorite to lead the team in receiving, which pushes Foster to the WR4 range. Expect spiked weeks with too much inconsistency to trust him in your lineup.
Cole Beasley, WR, Bills
If you were talking yourself into Beasley as a fantasy target, you may want to rethink that approach. Regardless of where he signed, Beasley's an average slot receiver who's topped 700 yards just once in his career. He does give the Bills a reliable pass-catcher over the middle, but he won't see the volume required to make a fantasy leap.