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Best Machado and Harper prop bets for 2019

Alex Trautwig / Major League Baseball / Getty

You could have counted on Manny Machado and Bryce Harper putting up big numbers before they signed lucrative deals with the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies, respectively; the two 26-year-olds are elite players in the prime of their careers.

But after signing their contracts, park factors and new lineups add a few wrinkles to how each star's production might look by season's end. With all the attention they garnered over the winter, it's no surprise there are myriad prop bets for both players, from home run totals to final batting averages to RBI counts.

Here are some of our favorites:

Machado - Under 33.5 home runs

Since all stadiums create runs differently, Park Factor compares home stats to road stats. Machado has bashed 33 or more home runs in every year since 2015, the vast majority them with the Baltimore Orioles.

As he started to get more lift on the ball, his launch angle was perfect for Oriole Park, which accounted for a 1.211 home run factor (1.000 is the average), the sixth-highest number of any park in the majors over a three-year sample size. The park was also No. 2 in Home Runs per High Drive in 2018. No. 1? Dodger Stadium, where Machado played during the second half of the season.

Machado is a potent enough power hitter that Petco Park shouldn't completely suppress his ability to deliver home runs. Still, it'll be the first season he plays half his games in a stadium that hasn't been as kind as the ones he's accustomed to.

Machado - Over 92.5 RBIs

For the first five games of the 2018 season, the Orioles led off with Chris Davis, followed by Machado. The O's totaled 12 runs and went 1-4.

That's not the ideal table-setting you want at the start of a lineup.

After reshuffling the order and slotting Machado third during his final stretch with the organization, things didn't get much better. He consistently hit behind a mix of Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, Tim Beckham, Jace Peterson, and Joey Rickard, who collectively averaged a .301 OBP.

Machado still managed to rack up 65 RBIs over 96 games in Baltimore, good for a projected pace of about 109 over a 162-game schedule. But it didn't help that his first nine home runs of 2018 came with no one on base; all told, 17 of his 24 homers with the Orioles were of the solo variety.

It'd be difficult to put Machado in a worse position than the one he endured in Baltimore, even if San Diego had him regularly batting second behind Ian Kinsler, who isn't projected to top a .315 OBP by any FanGraphs metric.

But should the Padres stick with what they've been doing in spring training and hit Machado behind Kinsler and bounce-back candidate Eric Hosmer - projected in the .345 OBP range by FanGraphs - Machado should have a chance to break through for 93 RBIs or more.

After finishing with 107 RBIs last season, we don't see a significant drop-off considering the circumstances.

Harper - Over 94.5 RBIs

From a lineup perspective, Harper's switch from the Nationals to the Phillies isn't as drastic as Machado's. Harper consistently hit behind OBP savants in Adam Eaton (.394), Trea Turner (.344), and Anthony Rendon (.374) last year, a significant factor in his career-high 100 RBIs.

The Phillies can go a number of routes with their batting order this year, but with Cesar Hernandez, Jean Segura, J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen, and Rhys Hoskins in the fold, you can expect Harper to have opportunities to hit with men on base.

Citizens Bank Park might not be as friendly as Nationals Park when it comes to Home Runs per High Drive or home runs for left-handed hitters, but it was No. 4 in the majors last year for overall home run factor at 1.190, ahead of Nationals Park's 1.173.

If he stays healthy, Harper is set up to blow this number out of the water.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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