Fantasy: Go contrarian, target lots of pitching early in drafts

Conventional thinking in fantasy baseball is to prioritize hitting over pitching, and it's easy to see why. Batters play every day and are generally less volatile over an entire season. They provide both a safe floor and a high ceiling.

According to FantasyPros, pitchers being outnumbered nine to three in the first round of drafts, and Max Scherzer is the only surefire first-rounder as Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom occasionally fall to the second.

So, if an entire league follows this same line of thinking that you should start with hitting, going the contrarian route could pay massive dividends. When others zig, you zag.

Cornering the market on aces can work to your advantage in more ways than one. Just know that a lot has to land in your favor.

Extra insurance

We know how unpredictable pitchers can be, on the whole, so committing to several top arms early can help stop the bleeding if one goes down for an extended period. In theory, you're also targeting the pitchers who have historically represented the highest floors and ceilings.

In theScore's 12-team mock draft, Scherzer was the only first-round pitcher, and Sale and deGrom followed in the second. I took Scherzer with the ninth pick (his ADP is in the top five, so it's hard to believe this will be common) and was in a position to take either of the other aces but went for Javier Baez.

Taking Scherzer in the first, following with either deGrom or Sale in the second, and then going for one of Justin Verlander, Corey Kluber, or Aaron Nola in the third doesn't do anything for your lineup, but it solidifies an elite rotation. It also helps cushion the impact of a debilitating injury. Drafting Scherzer and focusing on hitters for too long due to confidence in Mad Max's ability to stay healthy can result in disaster if he hits the shelf. This prevents that. If they all get hurt, well ... get busy on the waiver wire.

Trade bait leverage

Just because you draft a certain way doesn't mean you need to hold steady the entire season. By cornering the market on elite starters, you give yourself a surplus while contributing to a scarcity among the rest of your league. This is especially true as the season continues and the wear-and-tear kicks in.

While you may have foregone top hitting talent, that can be fixed on a robust trade market.

Theoretically, you'll enter trade talks in a position of strength and can capitalize on a desperate competitor looking to weather a storm of pitching injuries. If they don't make a deal, they're simply rolling the dice.

The best thing is you don't need to make this trade if you play the wire aggressively and target high-upside offensive players in the mid-to-late rounds. Combine that with hitters who can help solidify one or two categories in lieu of those early-rounders who may give you four or five.

Dee Gordon and Billy Hamilton aren't being drafted in the first six rounds anymore but can still offer plenty of help on the stolen-base front, and Nelson Cruz is almost a lock for 35 dingers even as he becomes the baseball equivalent of an octogenarian. You'll essentially be putting together a Frankenstein roster, of sorts.

How best to deploy

Even when using an extreme strategy like this one, you can't justify overlooking Mike Trout or Mookie Betts if you draw one of the first two picks. You can maybe take Scherzer over Jose Ramirez at three, but it's a tough call. With Trout or Betts in tow, it's easier to step away from offense for a few picks. There's a chance Syndergaard or Walker Buehler stick around for your fourth-round pick, though it's not a certainty.

This method is most applicable if you draw a late first-round pick such as the 10th, 11th, or 12th, as those spots give you the best shot at drafting both Sale and deGrom.

After conducting several mock drafts, I most often wound up with Sale, deGrom, Anthony Rizzo, Syndergaard, Corey Seager, and Stephen Strasburg in the first six rounds and took fliers on Luis Castillo, Tyler Glasnow, and Jake Arrieta later on. Rizzo and Seager are high-floor bats assuming health, and all four pitchers would be right at home as a team's first arm selected in most drafts.

Finally, there's another angle to keep in mind any time you try to deploy a contrarian strategy: be ready to abandon ship. Don't force the issue. By committing two early picks to top pitchers, it could inspire panic among rivals. If that happens, you can use it to find value on offense.