Honeymoon's over: Cowboys need Prescott to take major leap
About 15 months ago, Dak Prescott looked like the NFL's next special, young quarterback. The Dallas Cowboys - more specifically, owner Jerry Jones - seemed to have lucked upon his savior in the fourth round of the NFL Draft after failing to trade back into the first round.
Prescott, the Mississippi State product, blew the league away after replacing an injured Tony Romo by leading Dallas to a 13-3 record and showing remarkable accuracy, poise, and leadership rarely seen in any rookie, let alone one selected 135th overall.
Prescott's 104.9 passer rating set an NFL rookie record, buoyed by an interception-less streak of 176 attempts to start his career. He made the Pro Bowl, won the league's award for top offensive rookie and even shone in his playoff debut, a divisional-round home loss to the Packers in which he passed for 302 yards and tossed three touchdowns - another league rookie record - en route to a 103.2 passer rating.
Fast-forward to May 2018, as the Cowboys have gathered for yet another offseason program in which the franchise faces as many questions as answers about its future. As Prescott begins his third season, the Cowboys should be harboring Super Bowl aspirations. Instead, they more resemble an organization confronting a difficult fork in the road.
Prescott comes off a sophomore season that wasn't nearly as productive or impressive as his rookie year. When Dallas lost Pro Bowl halfback Ezekiel Elliott to a six-game suspension last November, coinciding with an injury to Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith, Prescott couldn't take the team on his shoulders.
He went three consecutive games without throwing a touchdown pass, all losses, as Dallas sunk from 5-3 to 5-6 and killed its chance to repeat as division champs. In those six games minus Elliott, Prescott threw five touchdowns and seven interceptions, after being picked off just four times his entire rookie year.
In total for 2017, Prescott threw fewer touchdowns, three times as many picks, watched his passer rating drop nearly 20 points - from 104.9 to 86.6 - and his completion percentage tumble by almost five percentage points. In his 32 career starts, Prescott hasn't thrown a touchdown in 10 of them, an indication of just how valuable Dallas' run game is to the team's offensive success.
The quarterback who once seemed destined to follow in the footsteps of Troy Aikman and Roger Staubach now enters 2018 as the NFL player most under the gun.
Prescott will be eligible for a contract extension next offseason. The biggest question facing the franchise and player is whether he will prove he's worthy of the $25-million- to $30-million-a-year price tag that's become the going rate for the league's better quarterbacks, or if the Cowboys will be back at square one next offseason, still seeking the next QB to end the team's Super Bowl drought.
Outside of Elliott, Prescott's weaponry isn't exactly intimidating. Dez Bryant is gone, as is future Hall of Fame tight end Jason Witten, a duo which combined for 132 catches, 1,389 yards, and 11 touchdowns in 2017. Free-agent signing Allen Hurns' production has dropped sharply since his 1,000-yard 2015 campaign. Hurns, now the Cowboys' top speed threat, hasn't played more than 11 games in each of the past two seasons, nor has he eclipsed 500 receiving yards. He has five touchdown receptions since catching 10 in 2015.
The Cowboys didn't draft an offensive playmaker until taking Colorado State wideout Michael Gallup in the third round (81st overall) and didn't address the tight end position until taking Stanford's Dalton Schultz in the fourth (137th overall).
The Cowboys signed former Rams "weapon" Tavon Austin to be their multi-dimensional, pass-catching running back and added former Bills receiver Deonte Thompson to join Terrance Williams, an inconsistent receiver whose yards-per-reception average has dropped steadily since Prescott replaced Romo as the starter.
There's no question Prescott prefers to work the middle, where his accuracy is strongest, but his reluctance to push the ball downfield has limited the explosion in Dallas' offense.
Prescott's 65 percent completion percentage has helped the Cowboys move the chains consistently, but his 7.37 yards-per-attempt average since the start of 2016 ranks 19th in the NFL, behind known dink-and-dunker Ryan Tannehill (7.39).
What's more, the NFC East should be one of the league's tougher divisions in 2018. The Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles return 19 of 22 starters and the New York Giants are refurbished after signing left tackle Nate Solder in free agency and drafting elite tailback prospect Saquon Barkley to join a cast of weapons which includes Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram.
The Cowboys will have to match up against some prolific offenses. They can't afford Prescott taking another step back.
Other QBs under the gun entering 2018
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
The selection of Louisville quarterback and 2016 Heisman winner Lamar Jackson puts the former Super Bowl MVP's career with the Ravens squarely under the microscope. After making the postseason in the first five years of Flacco's career, including winning Super Bowl XLVII, the Ravens have missed the playoffs four times in five years.
Flacco has undergone knee surgery and suffered back injuries the past two years and has 74 interceptions in his past five seasons. The Ravens signed receivers Michael Crabtree and John Brown in free agency and drafted first-round tight end Hayden Hurst and third-round offensive tackle Orlando Brown to bolster their offense. If Flacco doesn't lead the Ravens back to the postseason, and arguably on a deep run, he'll likely be headed for the exits.
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
It never helped Tannehill's case that he's not coach Adam Gase's guy. Gase started changing the franchise culture last season by trading away Pro Bowl halfback Jay Ajayi and continued to do so this offseason by ridding the roster of Jarvis Landry, Ndamukong Suh, Mike Pouncey, and Lawrence Timmons.
Gase was rumored to be gaga over Baker Mayfield and surely will look to start over with his own handpicked play-caller in 2019 unless Tannehill has his best season to date.
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
The 2018 season is the last year in which the Bengals are on the books for guaranteed money in Dalton’s contract. They can cut him after the season to avoid paying him $16 million in 2019, which the Bengals will surely do if Dalton doesn't produce. Dalton is 23-21-1 in his last three seasons and hasn't won a playoff game in his seven seasons.
The Bengals have lost Dalton's four playoff games by an average margin of 15 points. Dalton and head coach Marvin Lewis, who reneged on retirement to come back, are on the hot seat. Another failure to produce at least one playoff win would likely spell the end of their careers in Cincinnati.
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay’s 3-13 mark reflects more poorly on Winston than it should, but the Bucs need the 2015 No. 1 overall pick to play like a top 10 quarterback in order to compete with NFC South counterparts Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans - all three of which made the postseason. Winston's completion percentage, passer rating, yards per attempt, and passing yards per game were all career highs, but his ball security was abysmal.
He led the NFL with 15 lost fumbles, including four he lost personally, and threw 11 interceptions in 13 games. The Bucs picked up Winston's fifth-year option, but that's not a guaranteed paycheck. If Winston wants the big-money extension quarterbacks typically receive after their third or fourth seasons, Winston must lead Tampa Bay into the postseason, where the Bucs haven't been for 11 straight seasons.
Geoff Mosher is an award-winning sports reporter, radio host, and TV personality with more than 20 years of experience covering all major sports and leagues. He also hosts regularly on 97.5 The Fanatic in Philadelphia and is co-host of "The Sports Shop" on Facebook.
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