3 takeaways from Blackmon's extension with the Rockies
Over the past few seasons, extensions have become the new normal in Major League Baseball, and the Colorado Rockies continued that trend on Wednesday by signing their star center fielder and leadoff man to a six-year deal.
Charlie Blackmon agreed to a long-term contract to remain in Colorado that will guarantee the two-time All-Star $108 million and could hit $116 million with performance bonuses. And the move carries many implications, so let's remark upon three:
An All-Star didn't want to hit free agency
Unlike the recent multi-year extensions signed around the league - like Scott Kingery with the Philadelphia Phillies, Jose Altuve with the Houston Astros, and Eugenio Suarez with the Cincinnati Reds - Blackmon was mere months away from testing free agency.
It's the latest consequence of the notably slow offseason market we just witnessed, which continues to have repercussions and seems to have claimed its first casualty of what should be a remarkably robust 2018-19 free-agent class.
The 31-year-old Blackmon is coming off of a 6.5-win season by FanGraphs WAR. While runs batted in are neither instructive nor predictive, Blackmon became the first leadoff man to ever collect 100 RBIs. By wRC+, which is park adjusted, Blackmon hit 44 percent better than the league average and was the fifth-best hitter in the National League while finishing fifth in a notably tight MVP race. By all accounts, he's a stud. So why wouldn't he at least see what was available in free agency?
There are probably numerous answers to that question. Blackmon could believe staying with the Rockies is his best chance at a championship. The center fielder could even just like calling Colorado home.
Despite tearing the cover off the ball, though, Blackmon would be somewhat of a second-tier free agent in next year's market. It sounds crazy given his prowess, but when the upper tier consists of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, the likelihood of teams waiting out Blackmon definitely rises. And while Blackmon may be among the better players of the next tier, there's no guarantee that he - like Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, and Adam Jones - would have easily found employment, especially considering what we saw in the most recent offseason.
Impact on McCutchen, Pollock, and Jones
Speaking of Blackmon's would-be competition next winter had he not signed an extension, McCutchen, Pollock, and Jones may find themselves in a problematic situation as they compete with Harper for a gig.
It's difficult to forecast whether any of those three outfielders will follow Blackmon's lead and work out an extension. It seems like a possibility for Pollock with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Perhaps McCutchen opts to call San Francisco home as well, but Jones agreeing to terms midseason with the Baltimore Orioles seems extremely remote, given the team's situation with Machado.
Even though they don't play the same position as Blackmon, it could also impact his Rockies teammate DJ LeMahieu or Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson. Based solely on age, Donaldson sits just outside the top tier of pending free agents. Like Blackmon, he plays a premium defensive position and is already in his 30s, so a six-year deal worth somewhere north of $100 million seems realistic for the slugger. Meanwhile, LeMahieu might look to stay with the Rockies based on Blackmon's willingness to stick around.
The Rockies are building a winner
When it comes to LeMahieu, he'll likely find it significantly more difficult to leave the Rockies in free agency given the effort the front office has made over the past few months.
Jeff Bridich and the rest of Colorado's front office have built a completely new bullpen by investing in Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw, and re-signing Jake McGee. And Blackmon's deal is the largest contract the Rockies have given to a position player since signing Troy Tulowitzki to a 10-year, $158-million deal.
Whether Colorado will actually be a perennial contender going forward remains to be seen. After all, the National League West certainly won't make it easy. However, with the Dodgers stumbling out of the gate, the San Francisco Giants coming off a bad year, and the San Diego Padres still building for the future, the Rockies' efforts should at least put them in the conversation.
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