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Fantasy value: Who's up, who's down after Week 1 of free agency?

Andy Lyons / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Fantasy managers must rid themselves of any 2017 biases heading into the 2018 season.

The fantasy landscape just underwent a significant overhaul, as it does every offseason, with NFL teams retooling their real-world rosters. A player's performance in a previous season is no longer a benchmark for what they can do the next year, with not only their team but also opponents within their division and on their schedule taking different forms.

Here's a look at the 10 players whose value was most drastically changed by the opening week of free agency.

Mitch Trubisky, Bears ▲

2017 stats

GP CMP% YDS TD INT
12 59.4 2193 7 7

Trubisky can still lean on high-end running backs Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen in his sophomore season, but he'll have a new cast of pass-catchers that should help his completion percentage while adding yards after the catch - a stat in which the Bears ranked 28th last year.

Wide receivers Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel and tight end Trey Burton are versatile and well-rounded. Anything the Bears get from oft-injured former top-10 pick Kevin White will be viewed as a bonus, rather than a necessity.

Trubisky won't be anything more than a late-round flier as a backup in standard one-quarterback leagues, but he should be watched closely in the opening weeks, as he could be an early steal off the waiver wire.

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs ▼

GP REC TGTS YDS TD
15 75 105 1183 7

The addition of Sammy Watkins will cut into Hill's target share, as he represents a significant upgrade over Albert Wilson, who served as the No. 2 receiver in Kansas City last season. Tight end Travis Kelce is sure to remain the team's target leader.

Add in the fact that it's Patrick Mahomes' first season at the helm, and Hill's likely to see a decline in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. He should be a low-end WR2 reliant on big plays. He finished as the No. 4 receiver in standard scoring formats last season.

Paul Richardson, Redskins ▲

GP REC TGTS YDS TD
16 44 80 703 6

Richardson will help replace the departed Ryan Grant and soon-to-depart Terrelle Pryor in the new Alex Smith-ran offense.

Richardson leaves behind a volatile role as the No. 2 receiver for the Seahawks. He broke out last season but posted a dismal catch rate in a system that forced quarterback Russell Wilson to make too many of his throws on the run.

Smith's more predictable and steady style, as well as a more significant role, could allow Richardson to enter WR2 range. His five red-zone touchdowns last season would've led the Redskins' receiving corps.

Jared Goff, Rams ▼

GP CMP% YDS TD INT
15 62.1 3804 28 7

The Rams led the league with 29.9 points per game last season, partly due to the defense allowing 20.6 per game. The offense often had to keep throwing and scoring late into games, allowing Goff to finish his sophomore campaign as the 10th-ranked fantasy quarterback.

The team has been aggressive early this offseason in rebuilding the defense. Improving that unit will help build larger early-game leads, reducing Goff's need to take shots down the field. His weekly fantasy upside will be limited, even though he's unlikely to be greatly affected by the loss of Watkins.

Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders, Broncos ▲

Thomas

GP REC TGTS YDS TD
16 83 141 949 5

Sanders

GP REC TGTS YDS TD
12 47 94 555 2

Thomas and Sanders each had 1,000-yard-season streaks come to an end in 2017. Their seven combined touchdowns were easily their fewest over the prolonged stretch.

The two totaled a monstrous 65 red-zone targets with Peyton Manning in 2014, according to NFL Savant, but they dipped to just 28 last season. Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph, and Stefon Diggs totaled 50 with Case Keenum throwing them the ball with the Minnesota Vikings.

Keenum showed he can easily support two top receivers, as Thielen and Diggs ranked 11th and 18th, respectively, in standard scoring. Thomas and Sanders can both be high-end WR2s.

Carlos Hyde, Browns ▼

GP ATT YDS TD Rec. YDS
16 240 940 8 0

Hyde left the up-and-coming San Francisco 49ers as a free agent and signed with an improved, but still questionable, Browns team.

He also leaves behind a role that saw him carry the ball a career-high 240 times in 2017 and enters a timeshare with not only Duke Johnson, but potentially rookie Saquon Barkley, who remains an option for the Browns at either the No. 1 or No. 4 pick.

A reduced role and different coaching philosophy will see Hyde drop into RB3-RB4 territory, after finishing 2017 as the 11th-highest-scoring back.

Jimmy Graham, Packers ▲

GP REC TGTS YDS TD
16 57 98 520 10

Graham finished as fantasy's No. 4 tight end in 2017, hauling in 10 touchdowns.

Though he was the Seahawks' No. 1 option in the red zone by a significant margin, he never replicated his early-career form with the New Orleans Saints in his three years in Seattle.

He joins a Packers team in need of a red-zone presence after they released wide receiver Jordy Nelson, and he'll be served well by returning to a more traditional offense led by Aaron Rodgers.

Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals ▼

GP REC TGTS YDS TD
16 109 161 1156 6

Fitzgerald's falling stock is less about comparing it to last season than it is about what could've been.

He topped 1,000 yards while working with the cast of Carson Palmer, Blaine Gabbert, and Drew Stanton last season, but big things were expected for 2018, as he spent the early part of the offseason recruiting Kirk Cousins.

Sam Bradford looked great in Week 1 last year, but backing him up with Mike Glennon in free agency doesn't bode well for Fitzgerald's fantasy production in the all-too-common event of a Bradford injury.

Danny Amendola, Dolphins ▲

GP REC TGTS YDS TD
15 61 86 659 2

The Dolphins were one of the best possible landing spots for Amendola, who's coming off a five-year high of 659 yards, catching 61 of 86 targets. They needed a replacement for Jarvis Landry, who caught a league-leading 112 passes on 160 targets last season.

Miami also signed Albert Wilson and has both Kenny Stills and DeVante Parker set to return, but Amendola's expertise working from the slot will keep him on the field.

Russell Wilson, Seahawks ▼

GP CMP% YDS TD INT
16 61.3 3983 34 11

The Seahawks' offense once again failed to do much to help Wilson. They allowed Graham and Richardson, their top red-zone options of last season, to leave via free agency. They also failed to properly address the woeful offensive line that has plagued them for years.

Running back Chris Carson is a question mark heading into his sophomore season after an injury-shortened rookie campaign, and no significant upgrades have been added. Wilson's fantasy value is boosted by his running ability - he led the Seahawks in rushing in 2017 - but it also leaves him at risk of serious injury, and in full focus of defensive attention.

The "Legion of Boom" is no more, while the Rams and 49ers have upgraded their defensive units. Playing from behind can often bolster fantasy production, but Wilson will need some unlikely pieces to step up and help.

(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)

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