Where Kershaw ranks among all-time starters on his milestone birthday
The best active pitcher in Major League Baseball turned 30 years old Monday.
Clayton Kershaw broke into the league as a fresh-faced rookie back in 2008, and has already logged a decade in the majors. Over that time, he's established himself among the game's elite, tossing a no-hitter, winning three Cy Young awards, an MVP, and racking up seven All-Star nominations, while leading the National League in ERA five different times.
Kershaw is a special, once in a generation talent, but when comparing his numbers to other starters prior to their 30th birthday, it's not a stretch to argue he's one of the greatest to ever take the mound.
Cy Young awards
Kershaw won three Cy Young awards over the span of four seasons from 2011-14 - finishing second to R.A. Dickey in 2012.
He was the youngest to ever win the award three times, joining Sandy Koufax as the only Dodgers pitchers to win three. Kershaw hasn't, however, won the award in any of the last three seasons thanks in large part to injuries. He finished third in 2015, fifth in 2016 when he made just 21 starts, and second last year despite throwing only 175 innings.
Kershaw enters this season as the second favorite to win the award behind Max Scherzer, who has claimed the last two NL Cy Young's. If he's able to remain healthy, it won't be a shock to see Kershaw receive the honor at least twice more.
| Rank | Pitcher | Cy Young wins | Awards before 30 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Clemens | 7 | 3 |
| 2 | Randy Johnson* | 5 | 0 |
| 3 | Steve Carlton* | 4 | 1 |
| 3 | Greg Maddux* | 4 | 4 |
| 5 | Clayton Kershaw | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Sandy Koufax* | 3 | 2 |
| 5 | Pedro Martinez* | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Jim Palmer* | 3 | 2 |
| 5 | Tom Seaver* | 3 | 2 |
| 5 | Max Scherzer | 3 | 1 |
* - denotes Hall of Famer
WAR
Kershaw ranks fifth among all-time starters in WAR prior to their 30th birthday, and had he thrown the absurd amount of innings Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson did in the early 1900's, it's evident he'd rank closer to the top.
While it's difficult to tell what Kershaw would have ultimately done with the near-impossible workload, he was on pace, however, to accumulate a higher WAR than any of those pitchers based on average. Kershaw accrued one WAR per 32.9 innings pitched, while Johnson needed 35 innings. It took Mathewson 42 innings per one WAR. Kershaw's numbers fall more in line with Roger Clemens, who netted one WAR per 32.3 innings.
| Rank | PITCHER | WAR | IP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Walter Johnson* | 99.2 | 3474.1 |
| 2 | Christy Mathewson* | 77.2 | 3259.1 |
| 3 | Roger Clemens | 62.8 | 2031 |
| 4 | Bert Blyleven* | 59.6 | 2841.1 |
| 5 | Clayton Kershaw | 58.8 | 1935 |
Strikeouts
Kershaw cracks the top five in strikeouts among starters and is among the greatest ever at absolutely fooling hitters. His limited workload, once again, prevents him from leading the group, but his 27.9 strikeout percentage stands behind only Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez (29.4).
TOTAL STRIKEOUTS
| Rank | Pitcher | SO | K% | IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Walter Johnson* | 2305 | 17.3 | 3474.1 |
| 2 | Sam McDowell | 2281 | 23.7 | 2274 |
| 3 | Bert Blyleven* | 2250 | 19.4 | 2841.1 |
| 4 | Felix Hernandez | 2142 | 23.2 | 2262.1 |
| 5 | Clayton Kershaw | 2120 | 27.9 | 1935 |
STRIKEOUT PERCENTAGE
| Rank | Pitcher | SO | K% | IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pedro Martinez* | 1981 | 29.4 | 1693 |
| 2 | Clayton Kershaw | 2120 | 27.9 | 1935 |
| 3 | Johan Santana | 1587 | 25.4 | 1543 |
| 4 | Sandy Koufax* | 2079 | 25.3 | 2001.1 |
| 5 | Sam McDowell | 2281 | 23.7 | 2274 |
In seven of Kershaw's 10 seasons, he's struck out at least 200 batters, and whiffed a career-high 301 in 2015 across 232 2/3 innings. After making 30 or more starts in five straight years from 2009-13, injuries have limited him to an average of 27 starts over the last four seasons. While the workload has been decreased, he's posted double-digit strikeouts per nine innings in each of those years.
Path to Cooperstown
Kershaw's production to date is already close to being good enough to legitimately get him into the Hall of Fame if he were to never pitch another inning. According to JAWS, which measures player's worthiness for Cooperstown when compared to others at the same position, Kershaw has a score of 54.1 - just short of the 61.7 average for Hall of Famers. He's already ahead of Red Faber, Early Wynn, Don Sutton, Mordecai Brown, and Koufax, who are enshrined.
It's no secret pitchers tend to break down into their 30s, and Kershaw has already missed time in each of the last two seasons with injuries. But if he can stay healthy and pitch close to his capabilities, the trajectory will see him finish as one of the - if not the greatest starter in baseball history.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
(Stats courtesy: Baseball Reference)