Ranking the top 5 MLB starting rotations ahead of spring training
Typically, the middle of February brings with it only replacement-level pitching on the free-agent market, and teams are left scrambling if one of their starters suffers a spring injury.
However, after what has been a painfully slow offseason, teams will not have to scour through the leftovers. Instead, names such as Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn, and Alex Cobb are still available.
With only a few days remaining before pitchers and catchers report for spring training, the Chicago Cubs added Yu Darvish to their starting five and easily propelled themselves into the discussion for the best rotation in baseball. Keeping in mind that a team can still acquire an Arrieta or Lynn at any moment, let's rank the top five rotations heading into spring:
1. Houston Astros
Projected rotation
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 206 | 3.86 | 3.9 |
| Dallas Keuchel | 204 | 3.78 | 3.9 |
| Gerrit Cole | 175 | 4.08 | 2.8 |
| Lance McCullers | 137 | 3.61 | 2.9 |
| Charlie Morton | 130 | 3.79 | 2.5 |
The defending World Series champions, who got to where they are thanks to their prolific ability to score runs, added another arrow to their run-prevention quiver by acquiring Gerrit Cole from the Pittsburgh Pirates. The rotation is so deep now that 2017 breakout star Brad Peacock has been bumped from the starting five after posting a sub-3.00 ERA over 132 innings last year.
The Astros are an incredibly dominant club and early favorites to repeat, and the first full season with staff ace Justin Verlander will only help their cause. That is, of course, unless the 2016 World Series champions don't get in the way.
2. Chicago Cubs
Projected rotation
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana | 199 | 3.51 | 4.3 |
| Jon Lester | 198 | 3.91 | 3.5 |
| Yu Darvish | 173 | 3.82 | 3.5 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 170 | 4.06 | 2.7 |
| Tyler Chatwood | 137 | 4.09 | 1.9 |
The Cubs began their offseason by adding 28-year-old Tyler Chatwood on a three-year deal as rotation depth. However, their winter seemed a bit incomplete if they entered the 2018 campaign with either Mike Montgomery or Eddie Butler occupying the fifth spot in the rotation.
The Cubs completed their offseason by recruiting Darvish. While the club may lack a true 'ace,' Lester, Quintana, Darvish, and Hendricks have shown flashes of ace potential during their career. Meanwhile, Chatwood played an integral role in the Rockies' ability to crack the National League wild card last year.
3. Cleveland Indians
Projected rotation
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 194 | 3.29 | 5.2 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 178 | 3.51 | 4.2 |
| Trevor Bauer | 171 | 4.18 | 2.6 |
| Danny Salazar | 94 | 3.54 | 2.1 |
| Mike Clevinger | 169 | 4.51 | 1.7 |
After leading all of baseball in ERA - in the American League, no less - and WAR last year, Cleveland kept everything the exact same when it comes to the starting rotation. With two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber and budding ace Carlos Carrasco on the staff, it seems the Indians have gone with the classic "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" strategy.
After being hyped as a prospect, Trevor Bauer finally hit a groove last year, posting the best strikeout rate of his young career. There are still question marks about what Danny Salazar and Mike Clevinger are, and losses to the bullpen may impact the starters, but this group should still sit batters down at a high rate.
4. Washington Nationals
Projected rotation
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 210 | 3.38 | 5.1 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 188 | 3.43 | 4.5 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 193 | 4.16 | 2.6 |
| Tanner Roark | 171 | 4.33 | 2.1 |
| Erick Fedde | 92 | 4.28 | 1.1 |
The tandem of Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg is right up there with Kluber and Carrasco as the best one-two punch on any staff - and perhaps even eclipse the AL duo.
Beyond those two, though, as in Cleveland, questions emerge. Gio Gonzalez was a supremely reliable third starter last year, as the lefty posted a sub-3.00 ERA for the second time in his career. Somewhat troubling though, the 32-year-old managed a 2.96 ERA after a 4.57 ERA the year prior, while peripheral numbers including strikeout and walk rates all took a step back. Perhaps more interesting is whether soon-to-be-25-year-old Erick Fedde can take the next step to a big-league career.
5. Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected rotation
| Pitcher | IP | ERA | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | 190 | 2.74 | 5.8 |
| Rich Hill | 141 | 3.61 | 2.6 |
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | 132 | 3.95 | 1.9 |
| Alex Wood | 131 | 3.51 | 2.5 |
| Kenta Maeda | 126 | 4.25 | 1.6 |
Starting with the most dominant pitcher in baseball is always a good start to a rotation, and Clayton Kershaw is set to lead the Dodgers once again. Behind the ace though, the Dodgers have effective, though unreliable starters.
When healthy, Rich Hill is one of the best starting pitchers in the game, routinely flashing the ability to carry no-hitters deep into contests. However, health is somewhat compromising for the 37-year-old journeyman. Of course, having so much depth - including top prospects Walker Buehler and Julio Urias - freed the team up to use the 10-day disabled list in creative ways last year.
(2018 projections courtesy of FanGraphs' Steamer)