How will each team perform against its win-loss projection?
Another sign that the 2018 Major League Baseball season is nearing came Wednesday when Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projections forecasting win-loss totals for all 30 teams.
theScore's Michael Bradburn and Brandon Wile made their own predictions on whether each team will finish better than, worse than, or the same as their respective projections.
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
TEAM | W-L projection | BRADBURN | WILE |
---|---|---|---|
Yankees | 96-66 | UNDER | EVEN |
Red Sox | 87-75 | OVER | OVER |
Rays | 84-78 | EVEN | UNDER |
Blue Jays | 78-84 | OVER | OVER |
Orioles | 69-93 | OVER | OVER |
The Red Sox won 93 games last season despite David Price, Dustin Pedroia, and Tyler Thornburg missing considerable time and a number of core players struggling while playing through injuries. Despite having yet to land the highly coveted middle-of-the-order bat, Boston should still be a 90-win team with its key contributors returning to health and a full season of Rafael Devers at third base. - Wile
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
TEAM | W-L | BRADBURN | WILE |
---|---|---|---|
Indians | 97-65 | OVER | UNDER |
Twins | 81-81 | OVER | EVEN |
White Sox | 73-89 | UNDER | EVEN |
Tigers | 68-94 | UNDER | OVER |
Royals | 66-96 | OVER | EVEN |
Taking the over on the Indians (97 wins) may seem ambitious, but the club is coming off a 102-win campaign and its division hasn't gotten much better. Granted, Cleveland also didn't improve, filling a roster spot with Yonder Alonso that was previously held by Carlos Santana and calling it a winter. Even further, the bullpen lost substantial depth, and Jay Bruce left for a reunion with the Mets. On paper, it's not a great offseason. However, a full season of Bradley Zimmer will certainly help, and the starting rotation is still the best in the American League. - Bradburn
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
TEAM | W-L | BRADBURN | WILE |
---|---|---|---|
Astros | 99-63 | UNDER | EVEN |
Mariners | 83-79 | UNDER | EVEN |
Angels | 80-82 | OVER | OVER |
Athletics | 77-85 | EVEN | UNDER |
Rangers | 77-85 | UNDER | UNDER |
The Angels arguably won the offseason. While they added older players like Ian Kinsler and Zack Cozart, the Halos have a bonafide infield for the first time in Mike Trout's tenure. Not only should the team with the best player in baseball cruise past the .500 mark, but Shohei Ohtani should help make it an early favorite for a wild-card spot. - Bradburn
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
TEAM | W-L | BRADBURN | WILE |
---|---|---|---|
Nationals | 89-73 | OVER | OVER |
Mets | 82-80 | OVER | EVEN |
Phillies | 78-84 | EVEN | EVEN |
Braves | 76-86 | UNDER | UNDER |
Marlins | 66-96 | EVEN | UNDER |
The Mets are historically averse to spending substantial money during the offseason. However, a confluence of issues this winter led to the club recruiting both Jay Bruce and Todd Frazier. Hovering around .500 seems like a perfectly realistic expectation, but if the starting pitching stays healthy, Flushing could threaten for a spot in the postseason in a weak division, with only the Nationals posing a threat. - Bradburn
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
TEAM | W-L | BRADBURN | WILE |
---|---|---|---|
Cubs | 89-73 | OVER | OVER |
Cardinals | 84-78 | EVEN | OVER |
Brewers | 83-79 | OVER | EVEN |
Pirates | 78-84 | UNDER | UNDER |
Reds | 74-88 | UNDER | UNDER |
Though the Cardinals weren't able to land Josh Donaldson, they still put together a strong offseason by addressing a number of needs. Marcell Ozuna and his 30-plus-homer bat now anchor the middle of the order and a strong outfield that also boasts Dexter Fowler and last year's breakout star, Tommy Pham. Top prospect Alex Reyes will return from Tommy John surgery and will be a strong addition to either the rotation or bullpen. After winning 83 games in 2017, there's no reason why the Cardinals can't make a four-to-five-win improvement. - Wile
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
TEAM | W-L | BRADBURN | WILE |
---|---|---|---|
Dodgers | 99-63 | OVER | UNDER |
D-Backs | 86-76 | OVER | EVEN |
Giants | 84-78 | UNDER | OVER |
Rockies | 78-84 | OVER | OVER |
Padres | 73-89 | UNDER | UNDER |
The Giants are coming off a dreadful 98-loss campaign, but an active offseason and some better health should see them in the thick of the wild-card race. The additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria give the club some much-needed help at two positions they struggled from last season, and also gives a power-starved lineup some more pop. Ace Madison Bumgarner and All-Star closer Mark Melancon were limited to 17 starts and 30 innings, respectively, and having them return to health will help anchor the rotation and bullpen. - Wile
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)