NFL Underdogs: Super Bowl LII plus-money prop picks and predictions

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What do you do when you write a weekly column titled “NFL Underdogs” but don’t like the only underdog on the board?

That’s the question I’ve been wrestling with the past two weeks leading into Super Bowl LII, ever since the Philadelphia Eagles tore a strip off the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. I’ll admit, it’s tough not to like the underdog Eagles against the New England Patriots in Minnesota this Sunday.

Philly won outright as a pup in both playoff games, the Eagles are actually sporting dog masks in celebration of their underdog role, and overall teams getting the points are 9-1 against the spread in the postseason.

For a guy who has to pick underdog ATS winners week in and week out during NFL season, the Eagles and the points seems like the perfect fit – almost too perfect. And if I’ve learned anything from 15 years of breaking down sports betting, it's that if a bet seems "perfect" it probably isn’t.

So, here I sit with the Patriots -5 and a hole in my final NFL Underdogs column of the year. Hmmmm, if there was only another way to bet on the Super Bowl…

First half money line: Eagles +135 / Patriots -160

OK, so I’m not completely counting out the Eagles in Super Bowl LII. As we’ve seen from the Patriots, in last year’s Super Bowl and the AFC title game, they can be a little slow out of the blocks. Plus, Philadelphia looked tremendous to start the NFC Championship, pretty much putting Minnesota to bed in the first two quarters.

Bill Belichick has carved his face in the Mount Rushmore of head coaches by making smart halftime adjustments and so not only do I like the Eagles first-half moneyline at +135 for a sort of bizarro middle of the Patriots -5 spread wager, but I’m also sprinkling some action (Salt Bae style) on the first half/full time moneyline prop of Eagles/Patriots at +600.

Pick: Eagles (+135), First half/Full time ML Eagles/Patriots (+600)

First quarter Over/Under 9.5 (Over -120/Under EVEN)

This is the one Super Bowl bet I make every year without thought. Teams are always too amped up to start the Super Bowl, which means defenders are flying around the field like Mexican Luchadores and offenses are a little tight, which often leads to overthrown balls, dropped catches and some careless carries.

As Ashton Grewal noted in his specific breakdown of this prop, there have been a total of 37 points scored in the opening 15 minutes of the past six Super Bowls, which averages out to about six points per first quarter.

Last year’s Big Game, which had a first-quarter total of 13 points, posted double goose eggs from New England and Atlanta. And to add to that, the Patriots have failed to score a single first-quarter point in any of their seven Super Bowl appearances during the Brady/Belichick Era. Insane. God damn insane.

Pick: Under 9.5 (EVEN)

First score of the game: Touchdown -160, Other +140

Due to the safety slamming sportsbooks for three years in a row between Super Bowl 46 and Super Bowl 48, some bookies aren’t offering a prop on a safety being the first score of the game. Instead, we’re left with this vanilla option.

As mentioned, first quarters are generally low scoring and the Patriots have taken their sweet-ass time getting on the board in Big Games. New England also boasts a “bend but don’t break” defense that is much better than the stats would indicate. Its opponents score a touchdown in only 48 percent of their trips inside the red zone – among the lowest in the league.

With those factors in mind, I could see a field goal drawing first blood Super Sunday and even if a safety does open scoring (while not providing that classic +7,500 payout), at least the “other” has us covered.

Pick: Other +140

First turnover: Interception -140, Fumble +120

I have to credit my Covers Sunday Live Wire co-host Maddy Palmer with this pick. The second she said it, it sounded like money.

With the Eagles likely to play keep-away from Brady & Co., which means a lot of running plays, and New England utilizing a trio of running backs (White, Lewis, Burkhead) with handoffs and short tosses, the opportunity for an early fumble is very much alive.

As mentioned, offenses can find themselves battling Big Game jitters in the opening minutes, leading to miscommunications and careless slip-ups. We saw some of those from Philadelphia in the opening frame of the NFC Divisional Round against the Falcons, in which the Eagles put the ball on the ground in each of their first two possessions.

Note: If this pick doesn’t come through, blame Maddy.

Pick: Fumble +120

Will there be a 2-point conversion attempted? Yes +145, No -170

Due to the nature of this pointspread – sticking around the dead number of five points – I’m thinking we get some weirdo scoring in the Super Bowl. All it takes is a missed extra point to start a team thinking about going for two, and we’ve seen enough botched PATs this season.

Philadelphia is no stranger to going for the deuce, recording six successful 2-point conversions this season – most in the NFL and double what the next NFL team on the list had converted. The Patriots have converted twice.

In conjunction with this prop, you can also grab plus-money odds on “Yes” there will be a successful 2-point conversion, which is currently priced at +250. Might as well go all in.

Pick: Yes attempt +145 / Yes successful +250

Player to score first touchdown

Since the Patriots are the favorites, I spent my limited energy looking into their historical scoring tendencies this season and discovered that while New England has been beaten to the touchdown punch in both playoff games, it has scored a TD first in 12 of its 18 games overall.

In those dozen games, half of those first-strike touchdowns were scored by versatile RB Rex Burkhead, who is paying out at +1,200 to be the first player to score a touchdown in Super Bowl LII.

Burkhead, who allegedly is the player who injured Brady’s hand in practice ahead of the AFC Championship, has been slowed by a knee injury in recent weeks. He missed Week 17 and the Divisional Round before getting limited run in the conference title game. However, he’s now had an extra week off and could get a crack at the end zone when the Pats step inside the 20-yard line Sunday.

Pick: Rex Burkhead +1,200

Brent Celek receiving yards Over/Under 3.5 yards

Celek has been an Eagle since 2007. His role in the offense has declined with age and with the emergence of fellow tight end Zach Ertz. He boasted 76 receptions for 971 yards and eight touchdowns in 2009, and has watched those numbers slide throughout the years. Celek had just 14 receptions in 2016 and only 13 this season.

He didn’t have a catch in the free-for-all NFC Championship (targeted once) but did reel in one pass for a total of six yards versus Atlanta in the Divisional Round. On the year, he’s averaging 10 yards per reception and could be a secret weapon for the Eagles in Super Bowl LII.

With Ertz drawing the attention of the Patriots defense and Philadelphia using a lot of playaction to keep New England guessing, Celek could easily slip out off a block, snag a pass, and find himself four or more yards down field. We’re not asking for the world Brent – just four yards.

Pick: Over 3.5 +120

Color of the Gatorade bath

Since 2000, water has been dumped on the Super Bowl-winning coach seven times, orange five, yellow two, blue once and four Super Bowl finales have gone without a Gatorade bath (joyless), including last year when the Patriots won in overtime. Simply playing the odds, I've got to go with Water/Clear at +385. You know for certain there's plenty of water around but you have no clue what color Gatorade is being served up on the sidelines.

Pick: Water/Clear +385

Last week: 2-0 ATS
Playoffs: 5-1 ATS
Season: 25-30 ATS