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Why the Red Sox can afford to wait out Martinez

Harry How / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Two winters removed from signing David Price to a record $217-million deal, Boston Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is being much more conservative with owner John Henry's cash.

Dombrowski quickly identified the need to add an ace to the rotation before signing Price, then blew the competition out of the water. This time around, the need is much the same, if not greater, for J.D. Martinez, but Dombrowski isn't exhibiting the same level of urgency.

The Red Sox hit the fewest home runs in the American League last season - playing 81 games at Fenway Park no less. Martinez has belted 105 homers to go with a .943 OPS over his last three seasons. His 45 home runs from a season ago were two less than Boston's top two home run hitters combined.

So, with a significant need and the ideal player on the market, what has Dombrowski done? He reportedly offered Martinez a five-year, $100-million deal - roughly half the dollar amount that agent Scott Boras was seeking for his client at the beginning of the season.

The offer might be considered a lowball - if $100 million could ever be considered low. But looking at Martinez's potential market, it appears Boston could be racing against itself for his services. Despite being one of the best hitters in the majors, his market wasn't abundant from the start of the offseason, and even with things progressing as slowly as they have this winter, it has continued to shrink.

Part of the reason for Dombrowski's lack of urgency could be an unwillingness to overpay. It could also have something to do with the Red Sox recognizing there isn't a lot of competition. In addition to Boston, it's been reported that the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, and Toronto Blue Jays were also rumored to have interest. Not really a trio of eager big spenders.

When breaking down the suitors, the Diamondbacks are likely the main competition. Arizona's front office has already established a relationship with the slugger after acquiring him from Detroit midseason. Martinez is familiar with the clubhouse and had remarkable success playing for the team, hitting 29 home runs in just 62 games. Arizona also offers him the ability to be a full-time outfielder, something he won't get in Boston. At the end of last season, he said he was open to a reunion, and the front office was rumored to be highly motivated to try to re-sign Martinez.

The issue with the Diamondbacks, however, is that it's going to be hard for general manager Mike Hazen to offer the type of money his former bosses in Boston can. Arizona is projected to have a payroll close to $120 million next season - a franchise record. There were rumors that they were open to dealing Zack Greinke this winter in order to free up payroll, though those talks fizzled out, and it's likely too tough of a task to try to deal the right-hander and then sign Martinez.

You could even argue that dumping Greinke to add Martinez wouldn't put Arizona in a better position. The Diamondbacks also have A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin, who are both one year away from free agency, while Paul Goldschmidt is two years from his contract expiring. Arizona will need significant money to extend him. A better move for Arizona would be to trade for Manny Machado, who would fit their budget, while also giving them the bat they desire.

San Francisco and Toronto appear to be much longer shots to land Martinez. The Giants are teetering very close to the luxury-tax threshold and have already filled the corner outfield following the acquisition of Andrew McCutchen. Martinez doesn't fit the team for a number of reasons. His salary would put it over the tax, his position is already filled, and it would make little sense for an already old Giants team to commit five-plus years to a player in his age-30 season.

The Blue Jays could certainly afford to make a play. They're flush with cash, though it doesn't appear they're a real player in the market. Toronto has roughly $150 million committed to its 2018 payroll, which will rise closer to $165 million once Roberto Osuna and Marcus Stroman's arbitration cases are settled. Despite being well under the luxury-tax threshold, the club only has about $15 million left in the budget to address several other needs, which could include another outfielder, starting pitcher, backup catcher, and bullpen help. Given the fact that Martinez isn't going to drop to a price range like Edwin Encarnacion did last season, it's unlikely the Blue Jays will jump in.

There's a chance a darkhorse candidate emerges. After adding Gerrit Cole, the Houston Astros could make another significant splash by adding Martinez to replace Carlos Beltran at DH. They might be better served saving cash for a midseason acquisition, though, or inking some of their young stars to extensions.

A rebuilding team looking to get a jump by adding a premier bat might also factor in. The Chicago White Sox or Philadelphia Phillies could make an aggressive play, though they'll likely save their money for next winter's major free-agent class.

Given the free-agent landscape, it's easy to label the Red Sox the front-runner for Martinez, and Dombrowski appears ready to wait as long as it takes for Martinez and Boras to drop their price.

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